How Aggressive Will FSU's Defense Be In 2011?

The issue of FSU's defensive philosophy and the probable changes it will undergo in 2011 was broached in the Ongoing Discussion Thread by Devnole: "Can someone with some insight comment on whether we will continue to see the "bend don’t break" approach to defense in the coming season, or will Stoops be tightening things up in his second year?"  Let's answer that question today.

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The numbers are pretty clear. In ACC play, FSU forced 14 turnovers in 2010, 16 in 2009, 18 in 2008, 19 in 2007, and 7(yes, 7) in 2006.  That's not awful, but this year FSU should expect the defense to get the ball back to the tremendous offense quicker via an interception, a lucky rumble fumble recovery, or a forced punt.  Games like NC State, Carolina, and Clemson come to mind, not to mention Oklahoma and Virginia Tech.

Lets first separate talent from luck.

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The folks over at Football Outsiders have run the numbers and insist that fumble recovery is a random event. Once the ball hits the turf you might as well flip a coin to determine who gets it. That makes it susceptible to the law of averages and the inevitable attraction of the mean. So, given that, what might the data suggest?

% Of Opponent Fumbles Recovered By FSU

Looks like a pretty random pattern there.  But it does give us a good base from which to work, as FSU was neither lucky nor unlucky in 2010.  They were lucky in 2009 and 2008, and unlucky in 2006.  Such is variance.

So how does a team go about getting turnovers?

There are two ways.  A team can be very aggressive, selling out for negative plays and turnovers.  That strategy can be effective, but it is also risky and exposes a team to big plays.  It's also a high-variance strategy that does not lend itself to consistency.

Or, a team can put opponents in favorable (for the defense) down-and-distance, creating leverage.  As a product of a lucky bounce, fumble recoveries can happen on any play, but interceptions are more likely to occur when the offense is pressured.  Again, how is the offense pressured?  Either by the risky approach above, or, through situational pressure brought on by the bad situation.  And how is that situation created?  By winning first and second down.  How is this done?  Let's take Nick Saban's words, under whom Jimbo Fisher worked for years, and adapt it slightly to defensive coordinator Mark Stoops' philosophy:

"[Our] philosophy on first and second down is to stop the run and play good zone pass defense. We will occasionally play man-to-man and blitz in this situation. On third down, we will primarily play zone and mix-in some zone blitzes, as well as a bit of man-to-man. We will rush four or more players versus the pass about 80-percent of the time.

"In all situations, we will defend the inside or middle of the field first - defend inside to outside. Against the run, we will not allow the ball to be run inside. We want to force the ball outside. Against the pass, we will not allow the ball to be thrown deep down the middle or inside. We want to force the ball to be thrown short and/or outside. This is a more difficult play for the offense to execute. We will not allow big plays. It is very difficult for an offense to consistently move the ball down the field in small chunks. A penalty, turnover, or mental error will most likely end the drive.

So how do we answer the question of "bend but don't break?"

The answer is that in similar situations, Stoops will probably not be more aggressive.  However, if FSU can create more instance of certain situations, then that means there is simply more opportunities to be aggressive, as opposed to being more aggressive on a down-by-down basis.

So how does FSU create more favorable defensive situations?  How does the 41st-best defense (better against the pass than the run) improve?  Two ways:

By being better on 1st and 2nd down, of course.  That will come with better depth, experience, and talent up front, which the 'Noles now have.  And it will come if Greg Reid tackles better.  Xavier Rhodes and Mike Harris, FSU's #1 and #3 corners are excellent tacklers.  But Reid is incredibly inconsistent at tackling and his form is downright awful.  A few big hits does not absolve him for his poor tackling.  Reid is a bit bigger, however, and should be at least somewhat better.  The way teams play defense nowadays is to allow the short pass to the outside and then tackle it.  Offenses are simply too good in the modern era for a defense to worry about giving up a three-yard gain on a quick bubble.  FSU will continue to play it that way, there is nothing wrong with doing so, and it will work if the players tackle.  How do I know?  I watch other elite defenses like Oklahoma and Alabama do the same.

If FSU creates more favorable defensive situations, and the fumble recovery luck stays static, you will see more aggressive defensive play.  Not from a change in philosophy, but from an increase in the number of opportunities in which it pays to be aggressive.

And with that should come more turnovers.  Stoops has plenty of exotic blitzes he can use if he gets the right situations, and Lamarcus Joyner at safety has much better range than either Parks or Moody, so that should help as well.

Know what else should help?  Familiarity.  You saw the games last year.  That was not a good defense, it was just a competent defense.  That was a major improvement from the 107th defense in 2009, but as the players get more comfortable with the new concepts of spacing, hedging, reading, passing players off, etc., they will create more turnovers.

A prediction?  FSU picked off 9 passes in conference last season.  I'd be surprised if the 'Noles don't intercept 13 this year in ACC play.  That's a 44% increase.  I won't predict fumbles as predicting random events is silly.