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Florida State Returning Starters 2011

How many starters does Florida State return in 2011?  This seems like an easy question for someone who covers the 'Noles on a daily basis, but for national writers it can be tough.  Today I'll help them out.  Let's determine the FSU's returning starters.

The formula is simple.  A team has 22 starters.  22- (starters lost) = returning starters.

What starters did FSU lose off the 2010 team?  QB Christian Ponder, G Rodney Hudson, C Ryan McMahon, DE Markus White, LB Kendall Smith and LB Mister Alexander.  

That is six.  22-6=16.  

As of now, FSU is returning 16 starters.  Any number greater than 16 is automatically incorrect.  

Additional considerations:

  • Senior tight end Beau Reliford continues to be in academic limbo.  If he does not return, the number decreases to 15.  However, one could argue that since FSU uses many three and four-receiver sets, and all the receivers return, that he is really a half-starter.
  • Guard David Spurlock should not be counted as a returning starter in addition to Bryan Stork.  First, it's unknown whether Spurlock will ever play again with all his concussion issues.  Second, he played only 419 snaps out of a possible 900+, which is less than half.  But FSU does return its right guard, be it Stork, Spurlock, etc.
  • If a returning starter loses his job to a better player, he is still a "returning starter."  The term is not "returning starters who are still starting this year."  To punish a team by taking away one from the starter column, when that player is still on the team and very much available to play if need be would be quite silly.  We'll call this the Parks/Moody rule.
  • Kickers/Punters are not included in the standard definition of starters.  If someone is using that, the number needs to be out of 24 and not 22.  

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A lot of writers

do count kickers and punters. When they say 18 return, they don’t follow that usually with “out of 22” or “out of 24”.

by reznik1979 on May 26, 2011 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I wish they would note if they are using 24, ya know?

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would say 18 out of 24.

While White started I would say that he was not as productive as Werner but when it comes to two all American (possibly) kickers as a bonus.

by pb4957 on May 26, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thomas

should also count as 1/2 of a returning starter. That’s about as much as he gives us.

2011 BCS Bowl
2012 MNC
Eeeeeeexcellent

by SoCalNole on May 26, 2011 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

So if no player has more than 50% of the snaps at one position,

do we count that position?

In the case of Spurlock, no one had >50% of snaps. So was there an official starter last year?

by coonhound on May 26, 2011 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

My point was that fsu doesn’t get to count spurlock and stork both as starters.

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

One of them, but just one

i.e. they don’t count against the subtraction number.

by Nolesos Locos on May 26, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

In this case, they all return, so there isn’t really a determination to make. Much like at RB & WR.

I’d generally look at snaps and who finished the year, unless they finished due to injury.

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree, assuming it accounts for garbage time!

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!

by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Starter is somewhat irrelevant at several positions

DT and NG, especially. It was about a 60/40 split at both positions, non-garbage time, that is.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Suppose Beau doesn't make it back

how much of a drop-off (if any) should be expected from 2010 with Little, Tye & NOL?

Championship!

by TLHWG on May 26, 2011 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Moderate. I expect FSU will go more 3-wide FB RB or more 4 WR RB

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Upon further review, Beau wasn't that bad.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is this reply conditional....

with respect to Reliford not playing or a general statement regardless?

"If you're after gettin the honey, then you don't go killin all the bees." -Joe Strummer

by NeuroNole on May 26, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Conditional

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!

by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

While the idea of going 4 wide more often or counting on Lonnie being in more is exciting, having to make this alteration by necessity is not

"If you're after gettin the honey, then you don't go killin all the bees." -Joe Strummer

by NeuroNole on May 26, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Has this really been an issue? I wasn’t aware if so.

Side note: has there been any work done to correlate a specific % returning to sucess?

by Nolesos Locos on May 26, 2011 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes, actually there is a high correlation.

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!

by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

All this has to be taken with context.

C Jones might be an upgrade, same with Werner.
Not trying to disagree with the number or the correlation to success, just saying when you have intimate knowledge of your own team, some of these numbers mean less.

by BenDNole on May 26, 2011 4:14 PM EDT reply actions  

M. White got far more non-garbage time snaps than Werner.

At least in the first half of the season. White ~ 75%, Werner ~ 25%. I haven’t been counting, but I have been paying attention and CJ7 got ~ 40% of non-garbage time to M16’s 60%. As far as upgrades, I agree about CJ7, but White wasn’t nearly as bad as we seem to think. Werner was better at pass rush, and didn’t look so great against the run. JMObservations.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't disagree that white saw most of the snaps

And I don’t mean that Werner should be counted as a returner, but surely he got Defensive MVP of the spring for some reason.

by BenDNole on May 26, 2011 5:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

honestly assumed it werner might have been slightly better at run D

doesn’t seem particularly quick to the QB…

Anymore analysis on that tidbit?

˙uʍop ǝpısdn sı pʃɹoʍ ǝɥ⊥.

by harper.rb on May 26, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just going by the numbers:
With Werner, McDaniel, Dawkins, Jenkins – ypp run of 3.00.
With White, McDaniel, Dawkins, Jenkins – ypp run of 2.71.
Granted, this isn’t in any way definitive and it’s only through the first 4 games of ’10.

ypp pass with the same groupings:
2.00.
10.75.
And this is only with 14 snaps for each grouping, so small sample set.

Although I can’t find the numbers on my sheet (maybe forgot to set it up)…the sack rate was significantly higher with Werner in, instead of White. The run defense in general was worse on the strong side than middle or weak side…..4.75 ypp with 91% success rate against. 2.92 ypp and 39% to weak side, 3.29 ypp and 48% up the middle.

Subjectively, Werner almost always seemed to handle/beat his man on pass rush, while White was the opposite. Against the run I’d say White was a little better by more consistently being in the right spot and played with better leverage. Werner seemed out of position more often and on his heels a bit.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again, in subjective and non-expert observation

the only advantage White had over Werner was experience and I thought it showed…at least in the first quarter of the season. When I get through the entire season I may change my opinion and the numbers could be more in line with your thoughts.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any chance of correcting for opponent?

Or are the snaps distributed evenly enough between our opponents that it would even out.

by BenDNole on May 26, 2011 7:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

you could. you'd prolly need a number of chinese tho.

What you could do is do what DKN is doing for all (lets just say ACC) teams. determine the allowed ypp of each team vs all other teams the played and then divide FSU’s allowed yyp by the conference average ypp. That factor (a value of 1 being average) anything below 1 would show better performance vs the conference and anything above 1 would show worse than average performance.

maybe.

˙uʍop ǝpısdn sı pʃɹoʍ ǝɥ⊥.

by harper.rb on May 26, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's the idea.

I have to compile all the other teams conference games, too. I’ll be comparing each team’s numbers to the averages of their opponents, not the conference average. Subtle difference, but important, IMO.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just read your comment again.

What you suggested would be equivalent.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

right, I figured you'd have your logic way of doing it.

also, I have some free time for a little while. I wouldn’t mind helping you out if your still looking for it.

let me know, harper dot rb at gmail dot com

˙uʍop ǝpısdn sı pʃɹoʍ ǝɥ⊥.

by harper.rb on May 26, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

that would be awesome and greatly appreciated.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure thing.

just let me know what to do

˙uʍop ǝpısdn sı pʃɹoʍ ǝɥ⊥.

by harper.rb on May 26, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great numbers!

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!

by Bud Elliott on May 26, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, scratch the numbers on the starting DL. I looked at one game's worth, not all four.

Sorry, Boss. The numbers with Werner + 3 starters are correct.
With all four starter in, 37 plays:
4.94 ypp pass, 39% success rate
4.16 ypp run, 37% success rate
With 75% 1’s, 34 plays:
8.06 ypp pass, 65%
3.53 run, 71%
With 50% 1’s, 27 plays:
6.83 ypp pass, 33.3%
3.00 run, 66.7%

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Since we talk garbage time on here.

I would say it’s hard to include the first couple of games in any season for a non starters stats. Usually coaches don’t go with unproven guys often at first. Get them some game time and later in the season…I would say White was not as productive as Werner even though the teams were tougher. Just from the eyeball test.

by pb4957 on May 26, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree.

OU:Werner 25%, McCloud 23%, McCallister 20%, Hicks 16%
Wake:28%, 43%, 34%, 6%
UVA:10%, 46%, 26%, 5%
UM:12%, 39%, 26%, 10%
These are percentage of total snaps. You have to rotate DL, particularly interior guys, early and often.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah, I think I see the confusion now.

The numbers I showed are competitive stats only (i.e. garbage time excluded). In fact, I’m not even tracking anything after garbage time starts….every stat you’ll see from me will be this way.

Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.

FSU football - the 2010 Florida and South Carolina state champs.

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on May 26, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you have 22 apples

and eat 6. How many apples do you have left?

by ajm05j on May 26, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

depends

do you count Urbie and Randy as your own apples or are those stolen?

by stevib on May 26, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

UF basketball players are being pretty chill about it.

Their trainer told them not to steal the apples, but the cops don’t have anything on them, so they’re pretty surethey’re gonna get off.

"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County

"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra

by Dogrel on May 26, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I don't know what to make of that

I was referring to our rival head coaches as part of our graduating seniors, since we retired them.

by stevib on May 26, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice article

because on the FSU roundtable on espn one of the guys said 9 starters return from both sides of the ball, which is incorrect. However, most people I hear say there are 18 returners, which is correct. Almost everyone includes punter and kicker in that number, which I think they should include. I mean kicker is crucial to any team, especially FSU. So 18/24 is the correct stat for returning FSU starters. (8 offense, 8 defense, 2 kickers)

by chrisnole on May 26, 2011 6:34 PM EDT reply actions  

and at some schools, the same guy kicks and punts

Do they consider him to be two players?
Would love to see how folks “back in the day” would count 2-way starters

by Cigar City Nole on May 26, 2011 9:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

What does it matter?

I don’t see why it is a big deal to list 16 or 14 or 22 “starters” returning. If we list “all players who started a game at some point”….then you’d also add more players, and can even say we are returning a “Starting QB” since EJ started the ACC Championship and Clemson game last year….so, technically, he IS a “returning starter”.

The real key is the amount of experience that returns, and the # of “starters” is just a representation of that… It is also good to consider what positions they are…. if we return 17 (out of 22) starters, but lost 5 O-linemen, that would make a difference as to what that number would implicate.

You may ‘over-count’ if you’re trying to pump up a team to make them look possibly better than they are, giving a more optimistic preseason outlook on a team…. Luckily we can be consistently reminded how it is much more logical to take the most pessimistic viewpoint as a starting point…and then find more to worry about.

by burkenole on May 26, 2011 9:47 PM EDT reply actions  

well returning starters is the easiest way.

I think the more accurate way would be % returning snaps.

I think

˙uʍop ǝpısdn sı pʃɹoʍ ǝɥ⊥.

by harper.rb on May 26, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

Team age means a lot. As I thought last year with coaches. If you have a new staff you have trouble with your first few away games, equipment, etc. Same to be said about teams that are very young. Like last season when you sprinkle a new DC with some very young defensive kids and they look shell shocked at OU….This year, it will be a lot different.

FSU goes from one of the youngest teams in America to a more seasoned team. Wins and TD’s to follow.

by pb4957 on May 26, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

It All Depends

It is like poll rankings: every writer has a different criteria and/or a different source (or at least the ones that think about it and don’t just crib what everyone else is saying). Some like to count players if they started the last game. Some like to count players if they started above X number of games. Some will count two guards as returning starters even if they split starts at the same spot on the line. A lot of the writers, because they don’t have the time or inclination to intimately study all 120 FBS programs to determine who should rationally be deemed a “returning starter,” just take the bowl game list of starters and count the number of underclassmen on the list. They won’t go above the 22 or 24 numbers, of course, but anything within that is open to interpretation. To say whether they are correct or incorrect depends entirely on the criteria they are using.

by whodoes on May 26, 2011 11:40 PM EDT reply actions  

The most accurate measure would be a percentage of returning players

who played the MAJORITY of snaps in any game, regardless of “starting line-ups”. This measures team age and team depth (two of the most important factors to a great season). I call it the Experience Percentage, but it’s too much work for any national writer to use…

Example: 2010 FSU:
Offense = 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 1 FB, 6 OL, 1 TE, and 4 WRs = 17
That’s 17 unique offensive contributors, and 3 were seniors = 14/17 = 82% OXP in 2011

Defense = entire 2-deep = 22 (at least)
That’s 22 unique defensive contributors, and 4 were seniors (Jenije) = 18/22 = 82% DXP in 2011

Special Teams (easy) = 1 K, 1P, 1 return specialist
That’s 3 unique ST contributors, and 0 were seniors = 3/3 = 100% SXP in 2011

Spoiler Alert: in 2012 FSU will lose more seniors, but still not that many (6 offensive, 4 defensive, 1 special teamer) and will probably have more “contributors”

by TheMarchingChief on May 27, 2011 1:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Agreed

'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)

Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!

by Bud Elliott on May 27, 2011 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like this breakdown...

But by the math, that would be the equivalent of 18 returning starters (82% of 11 players on offense and defense)… and if you want to include all specialists (You could have also included our returning long-snapper and holder on special teams for 5/5) you’re looking at 84% (37/44) overall REP.

And by these numbers, we therefore have 23 of 27 starters back! Look out OU!

by burkenole on May 27, 2011 7:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or Maybe Just Returning Snaps

I seem to recall that the NCAA does publish participation reports for schools – or at least they used to – which list the number of plays in which each player participated. It would only be a very rough number, and perhaps someone has already thought of this, but it might make a useful and easy tool for writers to simply report the percentage of total snaps returned rather than even getting into starts (which can get warped by situational issues – e.g., discipline, injuries). This would allow us to compare teams with numbers that factor in experience for backups as well as starters. For example, given the relative playing time each has had, it is different for FSU to be replacing its QB starter with EJ Manuel (played decent amount of snaps) vs. Virginia Tech replacing its QB starter with Logan Thomas (few snaps). WRs is a great example of a position where the unit’s percentage of snaps returned is probably far more important than the raw number of starters returning.

Could also add on a stat for a two year “super experience” measurement, which factors percentage of snaps the returning players have played over the past two years. This would allow us to find out whether there are some true veteran squads out there.

It would still be a lot of work, of course…

by whodoes on May 28, 2011 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

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