ACC College Football Gambling Futures Odds Released

College football gambling odds for the ACC are now available.  To be clear, these are gambling futures odds. (olympic sports book) was the first to release divisional and conference odds, and they deserve credit for doing so.

Looking for SEC gambling odds and breakdown?  Find them here.

ACC Atlantic Division Champ Open Current
Florida St. Seminoles  -300  
Maryland Terrapins  +300  
Clemson Tigers    +500  
Boston College Eagles    +800  
N.C. State Wolfpack     +1000  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons    +3000

Let's break these odds down, starting with odds for the Atlantic Division.  I am talking about value, and not necessarily an outcome.  

Also, I think The Greek is taking too big of a house cut on these (29% theoretical hold), so I would not bet the division sides.

  • Too high: Florida State is the defending champion and should be the favorite, but -300 odds offer no value to the gambler. Maryland is likely to regress this year as a team, and has a more difficult schedule, which makes its odds too high.
  • Value: N.C. State offers decent value here.  Note I said value.  I do not expect N.C. State to win the division, but they could very well be in the conversation until the last week, which presents the opportunity for someone taking N.C. State to hedge the bet and lock in profit later in the season.  Clemson is also not a horrible wager here.

ACC Coastal Division Champ Open Current
Virginia Tech Hokies  +100  
Miami Hurricanes  +150  
North Carolina Tar Heels  +175  
Virginia Cavaliers  +800  
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets    +1200  
Duke Blue Devils  +3000

We now turn our attention to the Coastal Division.

  • Too High: Miami at +150 is awful value as the 'Canes travel to Tallahassee (FSU), Blacksburg (Virginia Tech) and Chapel Hill (UNC), as well as opening at Maryland, with some suspended players.
  • I don't see much value here in terms of a division bet.

Inside, take a look at the conference championship odds!

ACC Champion Open Current
Florida State     +150
Virginia Tech     +200
Miami     +350
North Carolina     +500
Maryland     +1000
Clemson     +1200
Boston College     +2000
Virginia     +2000
Georgia Tech     +2500
North Carolina State     +5000
Duke     +10000
Wake Forest     +10000

Where is the value here?  As usual, it's with the mid-level teams.  Not to say that they will win, but rather that holding a ticket would be quite valuable if they were there in the final week.

Ask yourself these questions:

  • Is FSU, who I have projected to finish 1st in the Atlantic, really 20X more likely to win the conference than NC State (projected 2nd in Atlantic)?  At +5000, the payout for N.C. State is 20x greater than FSU's payout.  Thus, N.C. State +5000 is a nice value.  Additionally, the game is held in Charlotte, which would be packed with 'State fans.
  • Is Virginia Tech really twice as likely to win the conference than North Carolina?  Unlikely, thus UNC +500 here is a decent wager.  The same considerations about fans above apply.  

Final Verdict: 

N.C. State at +5000 to win the ACC, solely as a value pick.  The house is taking such a big cut here that there are few bets of value.

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