Golden Nugget Games Of The Year Lines & Florida State

The Golden Nugget released its annual game of the year lines today, and if you follow us on twitter, you know we were eagerly anticipating this.  It's sort of like Christmas in June, if you're a football-starved degenerate, that is.  Here are the game of the year lines.

Here are the lines for the Florida State games listed.  I tried to put this post into plain English as best as I could.

-FSU hosting Oklahoma: FSU opened as a 3.5-point underdog. Line currently at FSU as a 3-point underdog.
-FSU opened as 8-point favorite at Clemson. Line is now FSU as a favorite of 5.5
-FSU opened 16-point favorite over Maryland
-FSU opened as 14.5-point favorite over N.C. State
-FSU opened as 7.5-point favorite over Miami
-FSU opened as 1-point underdog at Florida

Let's talk about these and what I chose to play:

-I did not play the Oklahoma game.  It implies that OU is about a touchdown better than the 'Noles if the game were played at a neutral site, which is exactly what I have.  

- I love Clemson getting 8 points from FSU and played the Tigers here.  I thought FSU should be favored by slightly more than a field goal, but good golly, not 8 points!  Great bet here if you took the Tigers with the 8.  Line is now 5.5, which is about where it should be, though perhaps a point high.  I would not take the current line, however.

-I like FSU to blow out Maryland and would lay the 16.  FSU won't have played a game in Tally in almost 40 days, and will be well-rested.  I also think Maryland is overrated.  I had this on my sheet as FSU -20.

- 14.5 points is too rich for my blood against an N.C. State team that I believe will be better than many think.  I had this at 12 on my sheet.  A win by 14 wouldn't win the bet for me, and I am not comfortable with that, particularly when O'Brien will play to keep it close for N.C. State and FSU has a road game at BC coming only 5 days later.  Not betting FSU here.

- FSU should be favored by more than 7.5 points over Miami.  This is a good Miami team, not a great one.  My number for this game was 10.5, meaning I would take FSU here and give the 7.5 points to the 'Canes.  Why?  I think FSU would be favored by 3 in Miami.  My line reflects that, but 7.5 does not.

-FSU is an underdog of one point at Florida.  Don't freak out.  This line isn't crazy.  It means that FSU is the better team on a neutral field by 3 to 3.5 points.  Don't judge a team on one game.  The 'Noles were not 24 points better as a team than the Gators last season.  FSU picked on a backup corner for many of its points, and UF"s offense was a mess.  Upgrade the coaching staff, remove that cornerback, and put the game in Gainesville, and this line isn't insane.  In fact, it implies that FSU would be a favorite of a touchdown in Doak.  How does that work?  There's about a 4-point adjustment for playing in the swamp (standard adjustment is three, but elite environments are four).  My line is FSU -2, which isn't far off from the Vegas line of FSU +1.  Definitely not betting this now, but will revisit this game later in the Fall.  There are way too many variables on this UF team for me to feel comfortable letting Vegas hold my money for 7 months.  The better play is to wait.

Now let's talk about some non-FSU games. I tweeted many of these.

 

-LSU getting 3 points from Oregon. Yes, please. Geaux Tigers.

-UGA getting 6 points from Boise State in the Georgia Dome? Is this serious? Dawgs all day. (Line has since moved to Boise -1.5). Bad opening line from Vegas here.

-Mississippi State giving 3.5 points to Auburn. Take the Tigers. Line has since moved to Miss State -1.

-South Carolina giving 3 points to UGA? Take Richt's Dawgs again!

-Notre Dame an underdog at Michigan by 2? Hell no. Gimme Notre Dame all day. Irish are finally underrated. Line has since moved to Michigan -3.

-LSU by 1 at Mississippi State. Tigers, again.

-Michigan State getting 6 points at Notre Dame. Gimme the Irish again!

-West Virginia laying 3 points to Maryland. WVU all day.

-Clemson hosting Auburn and giving only 1? LOL. Seriously, Clemson big. (Line has since moved to CU -4.5)

-Alabama hosting Arkansas and giving 11? Hogs. This is the game Saban plays close.

-Notre Dame giving 4 at Pittsburgh? Irish again.

-USC at Arizona State, Sun Devils by 3. Take the Trojans.

-Arkansas at Texas A&M, Aggies giving 2.5 points. Take the Aggies.

-Mississippi State getting 3.5 at Georgia. Take the Dawgs again! (Now moved to 5.5)

-Florida getting only 5.5 from LSU in BR. Take the Tigers. (Line now LSU by 7.5)

-Auburn at Arkansas, Hawgs giving 7.5 points. Take Arkansas.

-Arizona State giving 2 at Utah. Utes here.

-Air Force getting 10 at Notre Dame. Take the Irish again.

-Georgia -3.5 at Tennessee.  Dawgs again

-Georgia getting 3 from Florida? Dawgs.

-LSU getting 9 at Alabama? Yes please. Tigers.

-Arkansas giving only 4 hosting South Carolina? Hawgs.

-Oregon giving 1 at Stanford. Ducks.

-Georgia giving only 4.5 to Auburn? Dawgs easy.

-Notre Dame laying 7.5 to Maryland at a neutral Wash DC site? Irish

-Cal +12 at Stanford? Bears.

-Notre Dame getting 6.5 from Stanford in Cali? Irish.

-Georgia Tech getting 6.5 at home from the Dawgs? Betting Richt again.

 

Here are Allen Kenny's thoughts on Oklahoma and its lines.  He thought it would come OU -3.5 I thought OU -2.5  It came -3.5 and settled at -3.

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