Our statistics were developed to provide detailed numerical analysis of FSU football. Most of the principles are based on ideas formulated by Football Outsiders, with a few modifications. We've extended these ideas to include individual player analyses and conference play only team comparisons, which I believe to be exclusive to Tomahawk Nation.
This is not intended to be a comprehensive rating system. Instead, it is a detailed look at some of the important factors relating to offensive and defensive success.
2010 FSU Offense (not complete)
2010 ACC Offenses (complete)
2010 FSU Defense (not complete)
2010 ACC Defenses (coming soon)
2010 ACC QB's (complete)
2010 ACC RB's (complete)
2010 ACC WR's (coming soon)
Our stats are intended to provide evaluation on three levels of scrutiny--per play, per drive and per game--with full effort devoted to assigning credit where it is due. While I believe there is no such thing as irrelevant data, it is important to filter the data to suit the purpose and understand the criteria by which the data was selected. This helps to avoid creating misleading metrics and prevent drawing erroneous conclusions.
Adjusting for quality of opponents is one of the more important aspects necessary for comparing teams to one another. Most rating systems factor in opponents and opponents' opponents. Both are necessary when comparing all 120 teams, as most teams do not play each other and many have no common opponents. Since we are only comparing twelve teams and conference games, opponents' opponents is not necessary. Each team plays eight of the other eleven. In addition to the head-to-head data they have a minimum of four common opponents with the eight teams on the schedule. The teams that do not play against each other have a minimum of six common opponents. For these reasons adjustments are made based on opponent averages only. *These adjustments will be made once all the data has been collected.
The data for FSU games was gathered by film review (special thanks to TN members harper.rb, MWMnole and RollNole5 for assisting). All other ACC game data was obtained from standard drive chart reviews. Therefore, more detail is provided for FSU, but only data that can be obtained from drive charts is used for comparing ACC teams and players.
- Drive filtering: Only possessions that occur during competitive playing time are counted. When a team does not have enough possessions remaining in the game to make up the score deficit, this is considered the end of competitive playing time.
- Play filtering: Plays during which penalties occur are not counted. Plays where the offense is making no attempt to advance the ball are not considered (e.g. clock killing spikes, end of half kneel downs).
- Standard Downs: 1st down and 10 or less. 2nd down and 7 or less. 3rd down and 4 or less.
- Successful Play: Gaining at least 50% of the necessary yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, 100% on 3rd down or converting a non-standard down into a standard down.
- QB sacks: These occur on passing plays. They go against the pass, not the run.
- % of possible gained - percentage of total yards between starting field position and the endzone gained during a drive. Penalty yards are not counted, so it is possible to gain more than 100%. It is also possible to gain less than 100% on TD drives.
- Expected points - Based on the terminal field position of each drive. Points are "expected" from the opponent's 35 yard line in. This stat is an approximation to the statistical expectancy.
- Field position (FP) advantage - expected points are allocated based on the starting FP. For drives starting inside a team's own 40 all points are awarded to the offense. Each drive starting at better than the 40 is considered a FP advantage. The simplest way to explain is by example; on a drive starting at the opponent's 30 (70) and terminating with a TD, the offense gained 30 yards and started with 30 FP advantage yards. Therefore, the offense and FP advantage both get half the credit for expected points.
- Three and out % - drives where a 1st down or score are not attained.
- Scoring drives - Any drive that terminates inside the opponent's 35 and the offense gains at least 40% of potential yardage.
- Offense points per play (PPP) - Points earned by the offense divided by the total number of plays.