Predicting The All-ACC Team: Defensive End
by Bud Elliott on Jul 11, 2011 9:36 AM EDT
in FSU Football
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This is the sixth in a series on the 2011 All-ACC team. First, we profiled the players returning from the 2010 All-ACC team. Then we discussed quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends and offensive line. We're now more than half-way home and today it is time to talk defensive ends.
Remember, that these honors are voted on by writers. That means certain (read: Carolina states) schools are favored, sack numbers rule all, and you'll almost never see two players from the same team receive high offers.
The first team here is easy. Both players return and it will be tough for anyone else to unseat them. Quinton Coples of the North Carolina Tar Heels is seen by many as the top prospect in the NFL draft. He's likely the best player at any position in the ACC. And at 6'6" 285, he can dominate against the run while still being deadly against the pass. Brandon Jenkins of the Florida State Seminoles should also repeat his 1st-team selection. He was one of the nation's leaders in sacks last year, and with continued work in the weight room he should not be a liability against the run (not that any writers care about that).
But what about the second team? The race is wide open, but is limited to a few teams. We constantly discuss the fact that defensive lines often separate elite teams from average teams, and that's very clear in the ACC. The poor teams not only don't have the talent on the defensive line, but they also won't be pass rushing much since they will be playing from behind. The ACC has a lot of really talented defensive ends.
Who are the candidates? Florida State actually has two more in Bjoern Werner and Tank Carradine. These two would immediately supplant the two starters for many ACC teams. But there are practical concerns here. Werner may not have the sack numbers as he doesn't take many risks and is more of a run-stopper. And an issue for both is playing time. If these two split playing time they will not make the team. These will be two of the best 15 ends in the conference, but they might not get recognized.
Clemson has three candidates of its own in Malliciah Goodman, Andre Branch and newcomer Corey Crawford. Crawford may be the most talented of this bunch, though Goodman also has great physical tools. This will depend on playing time, but you can count on one Clemson end making the team.
Miami is loaded at defensive end as well, with Olivier Vernon leading the way. Vernon is an excellent player, but the question will be how many sacks he tallies as he is more of a balanced end and not just a pass-rusher. The same goes for Adewale Ojomo.
Virginia Tech has two unknowns at end, but you can bet one will make it on to the All-ACC team. Why? Schedule. Virginia Tech has the schedule to go undefeated, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for pass-rushing against awful teams, which in turn leads to sacks. James Gayle is the likely beneficiary here. He might not be one of the best 10 defensive ends in the ACC, but this is about numbers and not actual play.
North Carolina was mentioned above with Coples, but Dante Paige-Moss is certainly one of the best 10 ends in the league. Will he have the numbers to make it with Coples on the other side? He could benefit from teams double-teaming Coples.
It should be noted what Georgia Tech's Jason Peters and Virginia's Cam Johnson are both good players. But they probably won't have the opportunities to put up numbers worthy of the All-ACC team due to their team quality (or lack of).
Who will make the All-ACC team?
1st Team: Coples (UNC) & Jenkins (FSU)
2nd Team: Vernon (MIA) & Gayle (VT)
Honorable Mention: Paige-Moss (UNC) & Branch (Clemson)
Thoughts? Certainly a loaded group and a difficult decision.
Why did UNC land two and FSU only one? Simple. UNC has two defensive ends in consideration, while FSU has three. Splitting playing time is not a recipe for the All-ACC team.
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It will be interesting
To see the rotation we use. So far the defense has subbed less than I would have expected, but there were obvious reasons for that. Still I wonder, because big brother rotates the front a lot more to keep guys active and fresh. I would probably give Jenkins some plays off, but I doubt Stoops will do that in the heat of battle.
"Well, If wishes were horses, we'd all be eatin' steak." -Jayne Cobb
Despite the likely lower # of snaps for Jenkins, he will put up equal or greater sack numbers this year. He will be fresher throughout games and the season, and his rest will not come on obvious passing downs. I LOVE having quality depth on the Dline again. That is what I am most excited about this year. Opposing QBs and RBs will die this year.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
One reason we had so many sacks last season (48) than in 2009 (26) is because
our D was out of the field longer than in 2009. When sacks are measured per pass attempts, there was only a 2.5% increase sacks (per pass attempts) in 2010 than in 2009. (I’m currently working on a piece about our 2009 and 2010 defenses.)
Championship!
the increased number of passing attempts is a function of a better defense as well thoug, since we allowed less quick strike plays and also forced more negative leverage downs and had teams playing from behind more. The 2.5% increase per passing play is also more imprressive due to the change in philosophy where our DEs actually had to play the run and pass instead of full out blasting towards the QB.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
But there was also more rushing attempts in 2010 than in 2009.
In short, there were more plays run against our D and our D was on the field longer in 2010 than in 2009. I’m don’t have data—total counts or rankings—that shows two years of standard & non-standard downs for our defense (maybe someone does), so I’m not sure whether Stoops’s D did a better job at forcing offenses into non-standard downs (more than in 2009)
Maybe the increase in rushing and passing (and opponent possession), however, shows that Stoops bend-don’t-break D plan is working, esp. considering that opponents scored significantly less points and our TD red zone success (i.e., stopping TDs) improved dramatically in 2010 from 2009. But although it’s completely unrealistic, the best defense is one that either forces a turnover or a 3-&-out every series. Based on my (preliminary) research our D’s biggest problem in 2010 appears to be poor performance on 3rd down.
Championship!
also > passing attempts doesn't necessarily mean
forcing opposing offenses into more passing downs. Other teams may have realized that our run D was better than our passing D, and so decided to pass even on standard downs.
Championship!
You are doing the research and I am only using anecdotal evidence, but to me it seems that the bend don’t break is the cause of this difference in plays run, especially seeing how poor our defense was in 2009. And i know that more passing attempts doesn’t necessarily mean forcing opposing offenses into more passing downs, but I listed that along with a few other reasons that I feel contributed to the increase in overall plays, especially passing ones. And I believe that our passing D was better than our run D, although both suffered as the DLine wore down towards the end of the year.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
I disagree that run D was better.
Even with two horrible passing defense games (OU and UNC), we still held opponents to lower success rate through the air. Teams ran 57% on SD’s against us, 23% on non-SD’s. Both are within 3% of league averages. That’s the statistical significance of separating SD’s from NSD’s.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and feel free to check out the TN football stats page.
:-)
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Success rates don't tell the whole story about the (rush & pass) D though, IMO.
If your D gives up a lot of explosive plays, your D has serious problems. What does your data say about explosive plays, e.g., explosive plays on 3rd down?
Championship!
Don't have one specifically for that.
Look at a combination of ypp, success rate, non-standard downs etc. Combined they tell the story. Check it out for yourself, see what you think.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
who knows?
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Agreed-really want to see how Stoops and the other coaches use all of this depth we've built.
Now we can have passing downs packages, run packages, etc. that don’t just feature the same old ends on every play. More reps to the backups and fresher bodies all around when it matters late in the season.
To use a Stoops-ism, we’ve become more multiple. It’s gonna be fun watching this line.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
Competitive playing time participation 2010:
Jenkins/Hicks: 88%/12%
White/Werner: 81%/19%
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Would be nice to see some thing like this maybe:
Jenkins/Carradine/Hicks 70/15/15
Werner/Carradine 60/40
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
70-75% would be much better for BJ
What we really lacked was a 4th interior guy. McCallister took 25% of the DT snaps McCloud/Dawkins took the rest. McDaniel/McCloud split NT snaps 65%/35%.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah 88% is a LOT of snaps. I wonder what teams like Clemson and UNC had for a DE % of snaps.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
From the few CU games I watched
it seemed like Bowers never came off the field. Big difference between a 21-22 year old 285 pounder vice 19-20 at 255.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Reason being:
We were more effective against the run with McCloud at NT, which lead to more non-standard downs. The Jenkins/McCloud/Dawkins/White combo gave up 4.6 ypc, 3.0 ypa and 11% sack rate. The starters (McCloud vs. McDaniel) gave up 5.4 ypc, 5.2 ypa and 8% sack rate.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Love the stats…this shows IMO how McDaniel really isn’t a NT
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
Yep. Hopefully Erving can be the nose in 2012 and 2013
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 11, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Really gotta feel for Jaccobbi for being used too early and out of position because of the state of our program when he got here. Hopefully this year he can be better utilized and shine.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
Agreed
If he would have arrived under the current coaching staff and had time to sit and develop there’s no telling how good he could have been. I’m still holding out hope for him though, I think that probably not this season but his maybe senior one he could finally break through and becom a real impact player. At least that’s what I’m hoping he has been a great Seminole.
by Noleforever9399 on Jul 11, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Amp was more effective than Jacobbi
for a few reasons that have been mentioned by several people. Playing too early, too often, playing hurt and putting on too much bad weight right away. From what I’ve been told he has to be a NT, though.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Still has to be? Because of depth I’m guessing?
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
Skillset, IMO. DRusso has a very good explanation.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes. He lacks the length that Dawkins has to consistently threaten the outside shoulder of the guard as a 3-tech.
His quickness & pursuit are assets, but he is simply too stumpy. Good NT vs outside run and primarily pass teams.
Also not nearly as functionally strong as McCloud, which hurts vs inside-run teams.
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Did I just say "right" a fanpost?? GOD I was tired last night...
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Aaaaanddd
when we got teams into non-standard downs we played an awesome nickel defense (sub Harris for Mister):
4.2 ypc, 35% success rate running.
3.6 ypa, 22% success rate passing.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Excellent work
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 11, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
What's surprising
is we didn’t lose much run defense by going to nickel. I don’t have all the numbers yet, but 4.2 ypc on non-standard downs is near the top of the conference.
Or, we could just ask Damien Berry how he feels about running the ball when Mike Harris is on the field.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yes.
As advanced by Bill Connelly on his excellent SBN blog Football Study Hall and at FootballOutsiders.com.
Here’s Connelly’s definitions of what a “successful play” acheieves for the measurement:
50%+ of first-down yardage on 1st down
70%+ of remaining first-down yardage on 2nd down
100%+ of remaining first-down yardage on 3rd and 4th downs
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
I've modified it a little, though.
I’ve included any play that converts a non-standard down into a standard down as successful. So, if you go from 2nd and 10 to 3rd and 4, you’ve only gained 60%. By his definition that’s not successful. However, that takes you from a passing down to a running down, thus putting your offense back on track. To me, that is successful.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
interesting tweak on your part--
any play that moves an offense in a series from a non-standard to standard down as successful.
Championship!
Yeah, it makes more sense to me that way.
JMO.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
No, I haven't
it would be interesting to hear what he thinks of that.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
While gaining 50% of first down yardard (typically 5+ yards then), is definitely a success, I conceptualize that as pretty high. I was always told getting > 3 yards on a 1st and 10 was “winning first down.” Any team that gains half of their first down yardage on first down would seem beastly to me – from an average point of view.
"You are the hope I have for change, You are the only chance I'll take"
-Switchfoot
I think it's a little high, too.
Rather than arbitrarily change it, I’m looking at all the data to come up with statistical significance. Until then, we’re going with his numbers. Besides, I’m not trying to reinvent the wheel and the FO methods are the best out there right now.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Definitely interested in what you find. So what would you use to determine whether X yardarge on first down is indicative of success when figuring out statisical significance (for the record, I do not know how to compute statistical significance for something)?
How many games a team won when yeilding X% first down yards gained on 1st down?
"You are the hope I have for change, You are the only chance I'll take"
-Switchfoot
50% does seem high
I guess it depends on how you look at it. Defensively, I don’t consider giving up 3 yds on first down a loss, more like a wash. Giving up 5 yards is definitely a loss.
I would imagine Bill probably has some historical data to back up the percentages he uses. Would be interesting to see.
Formerly known as 'stilts'
My concern
We aren’t really any DEEPER at DE. We lost one and we added one (who will actually play as Newberry could very well be redshirting). Now we’re certainly more experienced and i imagine better conditioned, but 4 DEs to handle all 1600+ defensive snaps is somewhat troubling.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 10:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
DE isn’t nearly as punishing as DT though.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
good point
However, the players that are returning will generally be bigger, stronger, faster which will lead them to be better able to handle the workload. Bjoern was a freshman, so it is reasonable to assume, he will be much better conditioned to play more snaps this year. Also, Carradine will probably play a significant amount more than Bjoern played last year, which will allow Jenkins and Bjoern to rest more. As is noted above, Werner played 19% of the snaps for White. Carradine, one is to assume, will play significantly more than 19% of the snaps and will probably provide some relief to Jenkins as well, leading to more rested players. Also, another year for Hicks definitely could lead to more PT for him.
by newdynastynole on Jul 11, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I honestly think we'll have less competitive snaps this year
Hopefully leading to rest for our DL.
I really hope our DL gets lots of rest vs. Wake and Duke.
Formerly known as 'stilts'
Isn't Hicks around 270lbs. now?
Thoughts on seeing him move to the strongside behind Werner and having Carradine back up Jenkins on the weaksid?. Makes sense to me as Hicks has a more balanced game and isn’t great pass rusher. Carradine looks to be perfect for the weakside.
Q: What’s your favorite pre-game ritual?
A: Well, I take a doodoo. Before every game I doodoo.
Florida's Ja'Juan Story in an actual interview.
Carradine is huge now too. I like your idea honestly.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 11, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Couldn’t you see Werner and Tank splitting time 50/50 or so at SDE and then Carradine also getting snaps at WDE to spell Jenkins too? That way you maximize the usage of Tank.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
Could be, assuming Tank progresses
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 11, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Could on pure passing downs
Could slide Werner in and go Werner, Dawkins, Tank and Jenkins. Werner wont lose containmentand then you got three explosions for DL.
Nope. Don't retard the development of a true Sophomore who has not really been playing American football for all that long.
FSU, FINALLY has a deep stable to talented DT’s…………….use them.
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Agree. Tank is an unknown quantity now.
If he turns out to be as good as we hope, then by all means get him on the field as much as possible.
Q: What’s your favorite pre-game ritual?
A: Well, I take a doodoo. Before every game I doodoo.
Florida's Ja'Juan Story in an actual interview.
by 4-3ZoneShell on Jul 14, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
How big is Tank now?
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 10:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Stood next to Carradine and Jabaris Little about 3 months ago.
Tank is a legit 6’4" with superb genetic make-up. Wears his weight as well as a human can.
You wanna have your best players get the most snaps, Carradine has the size for SDE and he and Werner are the 2nd and 3rd best DEs we have so no sense cutting into either Jenkins’ snaps or Carradine’s for that matter by putting them on the same side of the depth chart.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
Yeah, but assuming Carridine progresses enough to play both sides
He could get equivalent snaps with Werner if he filled in when Jenkins was out.
Like you said above:
Jenkins/Carradine/Hicks 70/15/15
Werner/Carradine 60/40
Formerly known as 'stilts'
Two factors which can vary these numbers are injuries and score
Hopefully the former is not an issue. This year, as opposed to the past decade, we increasingly are going to be a position on the scorebord in which we can get our backups into the rotation. For this reason, I expect Hicks and Tosh to get far more plying time than they have seen previously. Also, Hicks at 270 pounds may be a pleasant revelation at DE this year.
In any case, competition will beget better players which in turn will beget success.
by GoNoles2011 on Jul 11, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope Tosh impresses enough to get playing time, but I by no means expect it. And Hicks will get more time, but I don’t see him getting far more than the 12% of snaps he got last year, just due to depth.
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
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I think because we go left/right and not strong/weak, we’re likely to keep Carradine behind Werner and Hicks behind Jenkins. Regardless both the first and second teams have a pure pass rusher and a more balanced bigger run stopper type.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 10:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Great job Bud as always, I really like this series.
I agree with you that Werner probably won’t have enough sacks to make the all-acc team this year, as his pass rushing skills aren’t all that refined yet. That being said, he is one of the players that I am most excited about coming into this season. I think with his increased snaps this season that he is going to make it much harder for opposing teams to run the ball since he plays with such good leverage. So while he probably won’t make the all-acc team because of his lack of sacks, IMO he will be an all-acc performer this year in terms of run defense.
by Noleforever9399 on Jul 11, 2011 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
Terp DE
I’ll throw my two cents about the Terp DE’s. On paper one starting DE returns—Justin Anderson. However, the new staff decided to move Justin Anderson inside to DE. Anderson was pretty good against the run last year at DE, but was not a good pass rusher, only getting 2 sacks on the year. In some ways I guess the move makes sense, but with both starters at DT returning it seems like we wasted a year of experience at DE.
Hence both starting DE’s won’t have starting experience. At the end of spring camp the starting DE’s were Sophomore David Mackall and RS Freshman Clarence Murphy. Mackall posted the numbers as a backup of some DE starters 18 tackles, 3 sacks, and an interception, but they are a little deceiving because he did so from the backup middle linebacker position. In an attempt to get faster which moved the 275 Justin Anderson inside (mentioned above), the 245 pound Mackall moved from MLB to DE. Who knows what he will do. Hes not super fast—maybe 4.9 forty speed, but hes fairly football fast. Ralph Friedgen actually said that in a press conference last fall, he said there are some guys who are not as football fast as their forty times and some guys who play way faster than their forty times. He explicitly gave the example of Mackall being a fast football player at MLB despite running a 4.9 forty. I am expecting 4 or 5 sacks from Mackall, he dominated blockers last year when blitzing on his sacks, but those were not O-Lineman
The other starting DE out of spring was Clarence Murphy who redshirted last year. Hes a guy out of Florida that the Florida schools passed on. Its a surprise he won out in spring as the old staff didn’t praise him all that much as a practice player last year or think about burning his redshirt. So we’ll see. I am not expecting big things out of Murphy, it seems like he won the starting spot out of nowhere. Maybe 2 or 3 sacks is my expectation.
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