Florida State Win Prediction Poll - Pre-summer Practice 2011
by ricobert1 on Jul 11, 2011 2:10 PM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintIt just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler. Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method. We call it "proportional win shares". You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games.
The idea is simple: assign a winning % to each game. For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), or that they have a 50% chance to beat UF (0.50).
We knew that last season was huge on weight gains for the defensive side of the ball. Jacobbi McDaniel has said he's at his max. goal weight (~300), but wants to work on agility at his size. Rumors are out that Amp McCloud is up to 320. I've seen Amp at 295 - the man is already barrel-chested and was as wide as a truck. FSU could still be adding significant weight to the defensive side of the ball, so that could be a factor.
This is your chance to show us how good or bad you think Florida State will be. It's simple. "How likely is FSU to win in each game?"
Take the survey HERE! Please only select one option per answer.We've closed the survey, after 735 responses! Way to go, TomahawkNation!
For posterity, you may view user results HERE (click to see your results). However, we encourage you to only view these once you've submitted your own predictions in order to minimize inducing any further bias.
We'll provide some summary statistics here, or in a follow-up article for those of you scared of spreadsheets.
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Rico has to do them manually.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Tried to pre-populate the cells with formulas
But it doesn’t work. Not too much of a hassle to do it manually, though.
What are you glorifying with your life?
Or STD afflicted.
Numbers could be skewed by a certain TN member, though.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
We're talking about Bud right?
You owe me Russo.
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
by Miaminole on Jul 11, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Hahahahahahaaa.....here's your green payback--the same color as my discharge.
You owe me Russo.
Follow me on Twitter for all the outrageous sh!t I can't say on Tomahawk Nation...
http://Twitter.com/DRusso97
#TellJokesGetMoney
Not anymore.....lamarmillerbeast is banned. No Wi-Fi at the Opa Locka clinic.
Follow me on Twitter for all the outrageous sh!t I can't say on Tomahawk Nation...
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#TellJokesGetMoney
The ACC is at risk for a new psychiatric condition called PTSD, or
Post-Traumatic Seminole Disorder.
by nole92 on Jul 11, 2011 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
It's really interesting
To see how close everyone is on their totals. There are few wildly different opinions. Crowdsourcing at its finest!
by Ryan Cardone on Jul 11, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. Error on my part
Added language up top. Fixing manually right now.
What are you glorifying with your life?
The hope is that people will not do that.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
6.4 and 8.78
But I only give us 50/50 against Clemson , game scares me. .25 against OU. .7 Miami. Still one lsat decent UM team and .65 UF. Still in swamp. everything else is really in the .7-.9 range with 1 .6
Once a time ago every game would have been .8 or above. But I still have those .7 where it prob should be higher. But still need to see it. Death Vally no wins in 20 years after OU. I have to say .50 even though we should wins. So I am definitely the pessimistic one looking at my numbers. But if you say how many games do I think we win I say we win 10 games this year before a bowl. So go figure that one out. OU knocks my numbers down wuite a bit though. Kinda an anomoly. I think the win total goes up if I remove them lol
A Seminole warrior killed in battle is a legend remembered. A Gator lost in battle becomes a pair of boots and a belt.
twitter of random stuff and tons of confessing FSU love name @caine115
10 wins?
Out of everyone who voted, based on percentages, only one person feels we will get 10 wins or more this year. Kind of shocking.
Shows how dumb that OU game is.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 11, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
BUT BOB, WE GOTS TA PLAY 4 OOC TOP-10 TEAMS
OR OUR NCAA DYNASTY MODE WILL GET BOOOOOORING
What are you glorifying with your life?
and no one will ever come to games...
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
U no, ur really off base here, Bob.
Bob, I think U do not no what ur talking about because U just say things sometimes and sometimes those things aint true. Have U ever gone and looked at things more different, Bob? If U took the time Bob U wood see. Bob, just cuz ur king of TonyHawkNation dont mean ur king of me, stay out of my head Bob, U dont rule my brain so stop telling me and stop telling erbody how to think and live and cheer for teams and those are all things you do, Bob.
Sincerely, SWAG SWAG SWAG SWAG SWAG SWAG
>>>─────;;─►
by NorFla_Nole on Jul 11, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
you spelled erbody wrong. Gosh.
errbody knows it’s errbody.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Nelly sure does
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
(Bud pushes a small button)
Result:
Meanwhile, in some nondescript building a Miami Fan is trolling, when all of a sudden
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
by Dogrel on Jul 11, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And I'm +2 std devs...
But I think we’re going to crush our rivals again this year.
And anyone who is in the 9.4+ range feels really good about this team
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Interesting that our resident expert
is one standard deviation more optimistic than the consensus. Tough crowd!
People are losing an entire tenth of a Query on Duke and Wake. Probably overvaluing Maryland now as well.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If they beat us more than one out of 100 times, I'd be mortified
"But they understand expectations don’t win games. And just because you’re picked to win, they don’t give you the trophy when the season starts. And we tell our kids that we have to form great habits and have great work ethic and form our identity as a team. We just have to reinforce that everyday because as we tell them, the pressure of expectations is only there if we aren’t prepared for them. If we prepared for them and we’re prepared mentally and physically, the pressure of the expectation won’t bother us." - Jimbo Fisher
at what % would you consider UMD overvalued?
Just Curious. I realized I put them at .85 (same as WF), but I do think they’ll be tougher than Wake.
Anything higher than .ut
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Higher than .75 possibly even including 75,just don’t see em taking one out 4 at Doak after losing what they did and replacing their coach with a worse coach.
Also think that’s way to high for Wake. You’re thinking has been colored by that losing streak, they aren’t the same a day neither are we.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 2:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I've sent that game film
to every DC on our schedule. Along with very detailed statistics. Hope they find it very useful.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
We could beat Maryland running the triple option all game IMO
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 3:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You mean TheChi, AKA nextlevel, AKA DAH-Langston.
It always amazes me how people think they can just create a new identity when they get banned and we won’t know.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
He was great
on the Tallahassee Democrat forum before that sight went pay.
He had 3 different IP's, but he was easy to figure out regardless.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
I used to access some sites via tethering on my cell when I was in the process of buying a house
and my IP showed up in all sorts of places. Kansas City, Minneapolis, San Diego…it was really weird.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
IP addresses for home use.
When you sign up for internet through your ISP, they typically give you a dynamic IP, which means it can continually change. You can usually request static for additional $$, but usually this goes for biz customers, or someone that needs a constant IP for a webpage, security cameras, etc…
In other words
Bud Elliott feels really good about this team.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 2:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No. These game counts do not count Conference Championship and Bowl Game.
This is definitely a 10 win season IMO.
I came up with 9 wins.
Add in the ACCCG and the bowl………11, my friend. (1.00 win shares in both games, maybe higher).
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think 9-10 wins is the expected.
OU, Clem, UF are the make or break games.
10-11 win season would be fine for this program.
I know you can't reflect it in this exercise
but I have a feeling we drop one we aren’t supposed to. My guess is either NC State or BC
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Saw a cane fan comment on a different website,
“anything less than 11 wins will be a disappointment.”
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He was probably talking about the Miami Heat.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
haha.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
He means for this coming recruting classes 4 years at school
A Seminole warrior killed in battle is a legend remembered. A Gator lost in battle becomes a pair of boots and a belt.
twitter of random stuff and tons of confessing FSU love name @caine115
Don't see Wake beating us 1 out of 10
Nor Duke 1 out of 20. Lot of people picked those to indicate as such though.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 2:35 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Samesies
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 3:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Major difference than last year. By almost a whole game, I think.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
just think, Bud
When we win 11 or 12 you’ll be exposed as a phony football analyst! Really looking forward to those discussions. hahaha.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Rico
In the T/U columns could you also grab the MAX and MIN values for the Conf and Total Wins?
I hope you've locked the spreadsheet.
If not I could really have some fun with it.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
INFINITE COSMIC POWER
What are you glorifying with your life?
by ricobert1 on Jul 11, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Itty bitty living space.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
This poll goes to show just how much of a statistical outlier
A MNC is for even a quality team. A 12-2 record would be really great, but statistically, we’re looking at 10-4 again.
by GoNoles2011 on Jul 11, 2011 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Everbody wins the MNC, every year.
Only a few teams are good enough to win the real one. Of those, only one is also lucky enough.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Both.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought we did whe we won the Chick-Fil-A Bowl!
Speaking of which, I think I’ll go there for lunch today.
Does anyone have the info on what a percentage equals as far as point spread?
I know at one time there was a discussion that a 90% chance of winning meant you think we should win by 30 or something crazy like that. and 50% was basically a 1 point game. Does anyone else remember that and do we have a way to look at what the percentages equal in points?
We decided to scrap that because it confused users.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Fair Enough
Do you have a link you wouldn’t mind giving me so I can take a look at that info?
by ncarolinanole on Jul 11, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't seem like over 2 years.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
I think this is a great frame of reference and a MUST for anyone filling out this sheet
Point Spread Money Line
-2 -120/120
-2.5 -130/130
-3 -145/145
-3.5 -175/175
-4 -185/185
-4.5 -200/200
-5/-5.5 -215/215
-6 -240/240
-6.5 -260/260
-7 -290/290
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -330/330
-9/-9.5 -350/350
-10 -385/385
-10.5 -415/415
-11 -445/445
-11.5 -475/475
-12/ -12.5 -500/500
-13 -525/525
-13.5 -550/550
-14 -580/580
-14.5 -610/610
-15/ 15.5 -640/640
-16/16.5 -665/665
-17 -690/690
-17.5 -715/715
-18/ -18.5/ -19/ -19.5 -740/740
-20 -770/770
-20.5 -800/800
-21 -815/815
-21.5 -830/830
-23 -845/845
-24 -875/875
-28 -920/+920
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that sure formatted for shite
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really.
If you know what you’re looking at, it’s pretty straightforward
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Forget the formula on the money line
and make it easy on everyone by putting the line and the percentage win shares it would be next to it. Than it would give everyone a better reference point.
"I saw coverage to the left, coverage to the right, and coverage up the middle and I said to myself, This is gunna be fun!" Peter Warrick on Punt Return
How About This
"I saw coverage to the left, coverage to the right, and coverage up the middle and I said to myself, This is gunna be fun!" Peter Warrick on Punt Return
by kmp9494 on Jul 12, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Nice job, REC.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Excellent Point
I was just using the formulas provided, personally I put anyone in the 26-30 range as 95% and anything above 30 as 99%. Bud any thoughts?
"I saw coverage to the left, coverage to the right, and coverage up the middle and I said to myself, This is gunna be fun!" Peter Warrick on Punt Return
I think the chart is certainly debatable. The cocnept confused many readers and detracted from the point of the article, so we scrapped it this season.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Got 6.83 and 9.86, but I'm brutally optimistic on certain conference games
I feel that I’m being very fair on OU, Clem UM and UF (.5, .65, .7 and .55 respectively). Regarding Oklahoma, I don’t know what to think, so I’m flipping a coin.
Some picks that I’m sure are further form the median for those games are Maryland at .95 (I couldn’t imagine losing to them more than one out of 20 games), NC St at .9 (they don’t have Russell Wilson folks, and he TOASTED us). Those of you who have BC higher than .8 are freaking me out, because that’s an away game on FOUR days of rest on a Thursday night. BC is SIGNIFICANTLY less talented than us, but they are a tough play.
I have ULM, CS, Duke and Wake as .99 and Maryland and Virginia as .95.
"But they understand expectations don’t win games. And just because you’re picked to win, they don’t give you the trophy when the season starts. And we tell our kids that we have to form great habits and have great work ethic and form our identity as a team. We just have to reinforce that everyday because as we tell them, the pressure of expectations is only there if we aren’t prepared for them. If we prepared for them and we’re prepared mentally and physically, the pressure of the expectation won’t bother us." - Jimbo Fisher
I'm officially banning myself for the next 30 seconds.
PullingGuardGator came up with higher numbers than I did…for the UF game and total.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 3:36 PM EDT reply actions
HarryBallsNole with the 10.99
Did he fall asleep sometime in the late ’90s and just wake up?
I don't know
But I’m about to be formerly known as DKN and MN…unless that’s really his username.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually it's HairyBallsNole. Good member, regular contributor, although a little overly optimistic.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Damn. I wanted that name.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I love cats
"I wish you loved me as much as you love TomahawkNation!"
""--;;--ⒻⓁⓄⓇⒾⒹⒶ-ⓈⓉⒶⓉⒺ--;;-->
by freshcollegeboy on Jul 12, 2011 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Hurry up and go for it before Hairy snags the name. The name is open, I was making the good member stuff up, although he (or she, or it) has made predictions before.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
This is seriously someone’s name on here? I feel like it’s advertising the wrong thing. HB first, Seminole last. I feel like the descriptors should be the other way around.
by JustLikeYouOnlyPrettier on Jul 11, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You like hairy nole balls better?
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. Well, better than any other hairy ball, I suppose.
by JustLikeYouOnlyPrettier on Jul 11, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
you are nothing if not a true Nole fan
the fact that you have a ranking system for types of hairy balls, however, is…different
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
SICK. Show yourself the door, SIR.
by JustLikeYouOnlyPrettier on Jul 11, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
There really is nothing like a shorn scrotum… it’s breathtaking- I highly suggest you try it.
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
I new it sounded familiar, but I couldn't remember from where. Nair is not your friend.
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=There+really+is+nothing+like+a+shorn+scrotum%E2%80%A6+it%E2%80%99s+breathtaking
PS. Nair is not your friend.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
noticed a few people are a little bit optimistic
seeing a couple of MD games in the .90s, which is a bit high for my taste. they arent great, but they arent that bad.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
I have them at 85%
I think we roll them out like wholesale carpet in 2011.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
I have them at .875 and think FSU crushes them
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Your NC State and UF games aren't what I predicted you'd predict.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Thought lower on both?
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Tomorrow's poll?
Predict what Bud will predict? Scout’s honor that you don’t look before guessing.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Dang. TN's gone meta.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
by Dogrel on Jul 11, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i dont disagree that we will win, especially after losing the G
just cant rule out the crazy new OC Crowton pulling something out his butt. he does have a really good QB to work with
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Crowton sucks.
He’s completely predictable. I think he’s a bit of a “Jimbo light”, without the attention to detail that makes Jimbo so great.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
he always does very well at first, then gets exposed later in the first year and falls off sharply until he gets canned
this is year 1, and even the SEC didnt have his number at first, so i am assuming it will likely mean success for him most of the year. dont know how it ends up in our game, but i cant assume we will completely shut him out. .75 isnt exactly low confidence, since i only have the cupcakes, WF, and Duke higher, and a UVA sandwiched between Miami and @UF at .75 as well.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
did the same thing at BYU, who has worse athletes than MD (meaning limited playbook) but better than their conference
he also did it at Oregon, where had better athletes than MD and comparable or better athletes in the Pac 10. the trend is what it is.
http://picklewagon.com/blog/2007/01/18/lsu-fans-will-suffer-because-of-gary-crowton/
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Still don't think he'll be successful.
And I’m fully aware of where he’s coached, but thanks for the history lesson.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
why do you think it will be any different at MD?
it is because of Edsall’s different style? serious question.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Because I think he's predictable.
And I don’t buy the “trend”. 3 isolated samples. He had world class athletes at LSU. He had an entire state at his disposal and didn’t do enough for the fans to care if he left or not.
I just don’think he’s impressive, and won’t be shocked if he doesn’t produce. FSU, Clemson, BC, NC State…all tremendous defensive teams with great DC’s who’ll sniff his shit out pretty quickly.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
i dont consider the last 3 jobs (with absolute consistency) to be isolated samples
your resume, especially recently, is kinda how people judge you.
but i agree that he is predictable, just like he has been as his last 3 jobs. the problem with that is i see him as a pitcher who tips his pitches: he should do well the first time through the order, particularly against a new team, but the second time around they hit hit well, and if there is a third time, its bombs away.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Good QB
But very few returning receiving yards. I’m with the group that thinks we’ll roll Maryland.
Formerly known as 'stilts'
We will have some stuff very soon that will change your mind on Maryland.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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anxiously awaiting said information
i want to believe we are really that much better (better than the .75 i think we are), but i just dont know that i can rule out that 1st year streak. the only way that doesnt happen is if Edsall has him on a tight leash, which means Edsall wants to lose. i would assume that by mid-season he has accepted that Crowton has a short shelf life, and if he hopes to move the ball he has to let him go.
that, and i think pretty highly of O’Brien. he wont be as effective as his last year says he can be, but he seems to be mature and talented enough to still be a great player.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
My 88% has nothing do to with disliking obrien either just fyi
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Man.
I’m much more pessimistic about the OU game than almost everyone else. Interesting.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
I'm with you
I seem to be in the minority when it comes to the Clemson game, just think that game will be damn near impossible to win regardless of the previous weeks outcome
Follow me on Twitter for FSU Baseball news
Yeah.
I love optimism, but I think that OU 2011 could possibly be another wake up game that reminds us that we’ve still got some tweaking to do.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Here's the thing
If OU 2011 serves as a wake up call, it’s time to reassess 2012. This roster remains largely intact for next season and most everyone who contributes this year will be counted on to do the same next year. If we get housed after two years in the system with current talent we aren’t winning the title in 2012.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 4:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Its still possible to win in 2012
Close games and some luck is all we need. There’s no more Nebraskas circa 94 in FBS.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
.
If we get housed after two years in the system with current talent we aren’t winning the title in 2012.
What if we get beaten 28 -24ish? or 28-21ish?
I think it’s perfectly reasonable to predict OU @ < 50% in 2011 but be hopeful for a MNC run in 2012.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
I don't think I would include close games like that in the definition of "getting housed"
and I agree that a close loss wouldn’t prevent the MNC hope for 2012. I actually think it would increase the thought that we have a good chance in 2012.
Formerly known as 'stilts'
I think – think – most will be able to wake up Monday and turn on Cameron after a 10 pt loss where we saw that a few things could have kept us in the game. Anything over 17pts and it will be a hangover for Clempson
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Losing 28 – 21 or 28 – 24 wouldn’t be a wake up call. 35-10 would be.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 5:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Gotcha
I agree. Although I’m not sure I could equate it with significantly diminishing our chances for a title run in 2012.
I hope to God we don’t have to have that discussion, but I think it would have to be addressed should worst case scenario occur. Interesting topic, though.
Good observation by AMFK.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
See I think the Clemson game will be damn near impossible to lose regardless of the previous week’s outcome.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 4:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What did you put?
I don’t feel like sifting through 500 datasets to find out. I mean, you’re special, but not that special.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Pretty surprised at the optimism vs. Clemson
Not sure I understand 70 percent to win on the road in a rivalry game with a team that can match our talent, coming off a huge hype game with OU.
Was thinking the same thing, I was won of the few that had us at less than 50%
Follow me on Twitter for FSU Baseball news
I was just typing that.
I pegged it at 60%, and wrestled with the thought of it to get it that high.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Regardless of where most stand on CU, UM, NCST there’s going to be another letdown/flat game or at least a half that we play like garbage and have bad luck, which should be factored into everyone’s predictions. It happens to every team – Aub got blitzed by UGA in the first half last yr and we all know about BC. Shaving a few tenths somewhere has to happen
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 8:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I feel like we are going go 1-1
If we beat OU…we could have put so much effort in that we don’t have to much in the tank…If we lose…We are going to CU angry and looking to stomp some fools…just not UM style.
They have a tough game the week before also
So that would negate any effects, imo.
OU>>>Auburn
We aren’t talking about 2010 here. Auburn is nothing like last years team and OU well..they are probably better this year then last year.
Auburn is not good. losin record in sec and probably acc too
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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Let me clarify something,
I am not trying to say that the Barn will be anywhere near OU this year, but Clemson will still have to get up to play them.
I just don’t see it with Aub-Clem.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Me Neither,
but never underestimate the fail of Dabo Swinney…
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think they match our talent up front on defense
and behind center on offense. That’s enough for me.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Or in the secondary.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
QB play was a factor in my determination.
I just don’t think Taj Boyd can learn enough of that offense in an abbreviated time frame to beat FSU’s talent.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
This
And I know you don’t think their OL coach is as elite as some. 4th game of the season, new O. If we don’t get shredded on the ground they may complete only 30% of their passes. Their D is taking a step back.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 4:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The days of being shredded on the ground are over.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
hoping and praying that this is true!
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Jul 11, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
and doing rain dances
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Jul 11, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
What, in the name of God, is wrong with you?
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I actually laughed at that one. Sorry DKN
“I know it’s hard for you to make your point with me laughing at it”
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
by CornNole on Jul 11, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This actually made me laugh out loud in a deathly quiet library.
Damn you.
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
I'm secretly thinking we win that game handily.
14-17 points. I couldn’t bring myself to gives us more than 0.6, though (publicly).
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Their only advantages are home field and quality of the previous week’s opponent. I believe we’ll be comparable on December and 20ish slots better on O (well be about the 10th best offense in the country they’ll be generously about 30th)
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 4:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Defense not December
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 4:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Speaking of homefield
And the likelihood that Clem is not at night, it got me to thinking when was the last FBS night game (7:45 or later) that FSU won at home? I honestly cannot recall.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Clemson 2011
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 5:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Eh?
FSU @ home against FBS. I really have no idea. UM 2005?
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry Clemson 2010 was a night game.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Jul 11, 2011 5:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
D'oh. Good call. Damn I wish I was there
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont like the first time we face any new coordinators..
talk about wide open offense.. and we may call them our third our fourth rival or whatever, but this year we will be their number two that is for sure..
by palmcitynole on Jul 11, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha. I was wondering when someone would say that.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I admit I'm with you Dr.
We could very well shut them down completely offensively. Not saying it definitively will happen. But, it just seems like to me that Clemson may win this game, but it would be close. FSU could win this game big.
Formerly known as 'stilts'
Oh not me.
I think it’s a game where one team, even though they have better talent and coaching, has an off day due to road conditions, previous week emotions, etc.
I see a close game with our offense sputtering. 21-17, 21-20 type of game.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
i have to wonder if we wont be beated up or crushed that week
home field after a tough game, win or lose, works in their favor. i gave it .50, meaning in a home game we would be favored.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Ditto. I can’t give them any more than .5 even though I think even with a loss to OU and Clem beating Aub we’ll still likely be in the -3.5 line
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That's 66%
And while I put .5 I think the spreads won’t be totally indiciative of a safe money line since we’ll be going from top 7 ranking to wherever we land (12-16) and Clemson will be coming in unranked to maybe 18-20 if they beat Aub – but lines will still factor into each of our rankings the previous week.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not banking on their success off of the good recruiting from last year.
Clemson has the huge advantage playing at home but aside from that they lack in depth, at qb, and everyone of their stud players is gone….for the most part. I don’t see them beating us 3 out of 10 games. Especially since they have the same hype game the week before.
agree except
CU may have equivalent cumulative stars but they do not quite match us in the trenches. Skill players are exciting; big uglies win games.
Dogs bark in the night but the caravan moves on.
Thanks for putting this together Rico. Do you plan to revisit this after summer practices like we did in the past, or is this it?
You will probably need to go in and clean up the ones that posted 2 %’s.
When I have some time, I will search the archives for the old one to see who won last year and we will reward them with something shiny.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
I ought to, but I'll be approaching my comps and wedding day coming up
May die for a few months.
What are you glorifying with your life?
Congrats bro.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
by FrankDNole on Jul 11, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Okay, hit me.
Wait, did you say “fist”? Thought you said face…or nuts.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Its not that bad....
after 10 years or so and your learn to just tune her out. My gramps told me once that i could either be right or be happy.
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Jul 11, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
RUDE
I see women at work all the time that won’t get credit cards because “my husband would kill me.” Each time, I want to say, “Honey, something is bad wrong in your house if he’s got that much say.”
by JustLikeYouOnlyPrettier on Jul 11, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
sounds like something very right in that house
those women are potential or recovering shopaholics, and the hubby hosts SA meetings every time she comes home with too much stuff she doesnt need. constant reinforcement is necessary, whether positive or negative.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
There is no arguing to be had.
I mean, maybe some guys like women to be meek and mild. Frankly, I’m never asking for permission when it comes to financial things. Actually, for pretty much anything.
My husband won’t really get a say in it. He’ll just have to suck it up and like it.
by JustLikeYouOnlyPrettier on Jul 11, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
not asking for meek or anything close
just wont be pulled into a debt hole filled with shoes she never wears. somebody has to be the voice of sanity. just like i expect to be reminded that buying season tickets during law school is not a good idea, for more than one reason.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
You going to be paying for any of that?
/as close as I get to chauvinism.
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
No excuse for not being apart of this!
Damn….didnt think a little funny humor my gramps passed along to me would sprak a full on “i dont let my wife get credit cards” I actually have no problem with almost anything my wife does. But i have found that it is best just to tune her out. Not that i dont care, but i just could care less about Amy and her bad choice of men or how Nancy was just so rude the other day at lunch. And for the other part of my statement, i choose to give in to my wifes credit card requests on the fact of being happy….
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Jul 12, 2011 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you have a rolled up newspaper ready for her when she gets home? Did you have a bad experience with a shopaholic or something?
And he saith unto them, Follow me, and I will make you (Jimbo) fishers of (Grown-ass) men.
Amen.
-O-Town Nole
no bad experience, just met women before
and i expect a good relationship to mean both of you are willing to check the other when they do something they shouldnt do. if not, you are just roommates living with each others bad habits and pretending not to notice. thats a ticking time bomb.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
No offense...
Don’t get married. Don’t have kid’s. Then you have all the power. Life is good…
I still havent learned that
but boy, am I starting to get it. Being right doesnt win me crap!
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
i agree its not a fight you can win
but if you stick it out as long as you can, i think you can minimize the losses over the long term. if we are talking purely in strategic terms, if you pull a France, you dont get to negotiate in the future
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
The one lesson that I did learn recently
Dont point out hypocrisy. They flip that into…“so now Im a hypocrite?” I literally got whiplash. It went from her being inconsistent to me being a name caller. Jedi Mind trick stuff. I will stop hijacking the thread now.
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
Just gotta decide which battles to fight... where can aI just not worry and what is worth fighting for.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Im telling you its the best advice i ever got
every now and again you get lucky!
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Jul 12, 2011 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Bronuts? That sounds like the baked-goods business Stephen Garcia will start up upon graduation.
Can you make eclairs with beer-flavored creme filling?
Yes. Yes you can.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
its not that bad
after 10 years or so. Remember you can be right, or you can be happy.
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Jul 11, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Good stuff, but
sucks that you can accidentally (in my case) fill more than one stat/percentage per game. Um… My bad, and what not.
"This year I am focused on scoring. I want to score, along with getting good field position for the offense. I am going to try and score a little bit this year. I kinda miss the endzone a little bit." -G5
I did the same, Dutch
Lifes a SPEAR then U TRIBE!!!!!
"We Are FLORIDA STATE!!!!"
"I know what you're scared of.... Its comin' BANK ON IT!"
-CoachColey
Thanks,Rico
Lifes a SPEAR then U TRIBE!!!!!
"We Are FLORIDA STATE!!!!"
"I know what you're scared of.... Its comin' BANK ON IT!"
-CoachColey
That's easy-you're in Port St. Lucie because your condo in Palm Beach got foreclosed on.
What do I win?
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
I gots 8.45
I like that number since I have determined that I will accept a ‘successful’ season as 9-3 (7-1) with ACC Champ, and – while two seasons cannot be measured the same – I was around 6.75 last year and 2.25 devs off. I will be VEEERRRY happy if I’m off by as much this year
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 11, 2011 4:39 PM EDT reply actions
I shared my koolaid last year when everyone picked UF to beat us ;0)
Lifes a SPEAR then U TRIBE!!!!!
"We Are FLORIDA STATE!!!!"
"I know what you're scared of.... Its comin' BANK ON IT!"
-CoachColey
I hadn't really thought about our record until this
I remember doing this last year, too, good feature.
I came up with 5.75/8.75 and was intentionally slightly pessimistic but I’m comfortable with that prediction for the regular season. Even on the games where we should have blowout wins I didn’t consider them guarantees. I was at that Jacksonville State game in the rain, the impossible can happen and I’m not sold on this team being rock solid yet.
Dan Patrick: "Is Ponder a good name for a quarterback?"
Christian Ponder: "Why? Because you say I overthink things? is that what you’re trying to imply? As crazy as it sounds, my mom’s maiden name is actually SuperBowlWinner. Isn’t that crazy?"
DP: "Now is that hyphenated?"
CP7: "No, it’s all one word."
This is why I love this exercise
8.69. I’m in the minority on the UM game. I think it will be much closer than anyone wants.
>>---l>
at .55, you think Miami would be favored at home?
what about a neutral site?
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
I think it's 50/50 at UM
I think we’re favored by a point or two at a neutral site. I think they have a d-line that will keep our offense from running away with the game and I think that Golden will have them play to their strength which is a very deep stable of RB’s. I definitely don’t see a replay of last year where we simply out-scheme and destroy them in every phase of the game.
>>---l>
I'm starting to think run defense will be a strength of ours this year.
The weight gains up front—across the board—and added depth have me thinking we’ll field a top-15 defense (top 20 run, top10 pass). Whether Golden wants to or not Jacorri will have to chuck it up a fair amount.
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you imagine being those guys on the DL?
For the first 2 years of their career, fighting like dogs but getting mauled cuz they weren’t big enough?
Take that same level of fight, and add 20lbs to it? Naw, son. They must feel like superman now.
I’d be surprised if many teams ran it down our throats.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Got that game at 50/50
Miami will be better coached this year I feel like, at home, and they do have as much talent or close to it as we do this year
Wait, at home? Who's home?
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Still 50/50?
Better known as Dr. Kenneth Noisewater.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Jul 11, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Close to yours at 8.83.
.6 for Miami. Think .55 there, give us .6 at home. Got .55 for clemson and UF, .35 for OU…
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
8.4
I guess that, as a woman, I’m used to lowering my standards.
Save the planet. Except Gainesville.
by amvNole on Jul 11, 2011 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Someone delete this before DRu sees it.
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
by Miaminole on Jul 11, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
haha rec'd
Cant get enough Drusso jokes.
by FSUNole51 on Jul 11, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for truthifactualiness
Can’t get enough DRusso jokes.
Somebody forward this to the Improv…..I just accepted a gig in Little Rock, Arkansas.
#WTF
Follow me on Twitter for all the outrageous sh!t I can't say on Tomahawk Nation...
http://Twitter.com/DRusso97
#TellJokesGetMoney
pig sooie
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Yeah....somebody on twitter told me to do all my jokes making fun of Republicans.
#ProbablyNotAGoodIdea
Follow me on Twitter for all the outrageous sh!t I can't say on Tomahawk Nation...
http://Twitter.com/DRusso97
#TellJokesGetMoney
This is one of the funniest things I've ever read on TN.
[stands and golf claps]
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
These will change
But the highest uncertainties right now are:
@UF (/- 0.2)
Miami (/- 0.19)
OU (/- 0.18)
@Clemson (/- 0.18)
@BC (+/- 0.18)
Very interesting.
What are you glorifying with your life?
makes sense to me that it would happen that way
the biggest differentials are in rivalry games and/or competitive games (OU and BC fall into the latter, CLEM in both). those kind of games tend to have polarizing effects on our own fans.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
UF especially.
We know that team almost as well as any casual gator fan. Yet, we know it’s hard to win in Gainesville. Add that to a healthy helping of “followers of DocHolliday” (i.e. UF sucks and we’ll beat them by 8 TD’s every year), and you get the highest uncertainties.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
Add that to a healthy helping of "followers of DocHolliday"
When I saw that, I immediately thought, “people who make terrible photoshops?”
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
He's in a class all by himself with that one.
If you know Doc, you’ll know that his his EWP would be 100% for all games, with UF possibly being a 110%.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
rico, in respect to this aspect of some excessive homerism
And then some excessive pessimism on other goals, would it be too much to ask to post both the plus 2 sd’s and the minus 2 sd’s data? I’m just curious to see how far we are skewed.
er, stats terms fail
Since we’re using a finite, discrete set, then maybe just the lower 5% and upper 5% cutoff. I do in fact know there is only one standard deviation, not a plus one and a minus one (though I wouldn’t put it past statisticians to have made up one).
What I was trying to ask for was to get an amount of the skew
Ie, is our 0.6 Florida data more a result of stark pessimism when the median user is really at 0.7 or do we have some blind homers putting in 0.8’s and 0.9’s when the median is more like 0.5. A standard deviation doesn’t tell that part of the story.
Except for the OU game (0.43),
All those polled have FSU favored in every single game.
What are you glorifying with your life?
by all, do you mean on average?
i see some .50 and below for Clemson and UF
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Yes.
The average pollster has FSU favored in every single game except for OU.
What are you glorifying with your life?
Aren't we, at this point?
Favored in every game except for OU and UF, I mean
by Nolesos Locos on Jul 11, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Right now the average is 9.22 wins
If we do not win 10 games in the regular season I will be extremely disappointed. I understand the difficulty of doing so with our schedule but I want to once again be considered an elite program in college football and going 9-3, especially with how our conference is perceived, is not going to help.
Honestly, we have a lot of games this year that we should win easily. Maryland, NC State, Wake and Virginia should not be a problem like in years past. As always I am afraid of BC. In part because I live 10 minutes from BC and know if we lose it will be hell for me, but also because BC always exceeds expectations and plays us well at home. We are lucky to be 2-1 at BC, could easily be 0-3 if not for Weatherford having the game of his life in ’05 and Geno Hayes getting that pick-6 in ’07. We were getting blown out of the freaking building in ’09 before we finally got it together in the 2H.
Oklahoma, Clemson, Miami and Florida. These are the hard games in my mind. Anything under 3 wins vs this group is a failure in my eyes. We are better than 3 of these teams and these should be the games we are looking forward to all year. We have Miami at home, we have more talent and a much better coach than Clemson, and the game will not be at night (thank God). Florida is a toss up for me. Obviously they will be out to avenge their loss to us this year but if they can’t find a QB it won’t matter. Oklahoma I actually think we win. Think Doak will be rocking and the crowd helps guide us to a win.
My predicted total was 9.72 btw
9-3 still could have FSU playing for 11 wins. And I'd be fine with that too.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont believe we are better than UF, at least not on paper
they have an more talented team, considering depth and experience. the transition into a new offense with players that dont necessarily fit will be the difference this season, at least as i see it.
if i had to break it down by predictions in only those 4, i think the potential losses are most likely OU and either Clemson or UF, depending on how we lose to OU and how much UF progresses through the year. if we come out of OU with a close loss (but not beaten up), and UF has trouble running a normal offense with their personnel, i could see it being 3-1 likely over those 4. again, not predicting we will definitely lose to OU, just the most likely of those 4. that probably accounts for you having 10 wins instead of 9.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
uhhhhh...this makes no sense.
they have an more talented team, considering depth and experience.
Talent is talent. Wake Forest could have a bunch of 2 and 3* Seniors backed up by 2 and 3* Juniors backed up by 2 and 3* Sophomores…by definition they are experienced and have more depth than FSU, but would you pick them to beat us? Hell no.
Position by Position breakdown tell me that FSU has more talent.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman.
I actually think UF has quite a bit of depth issues going into this year.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think FSU is a better team than UF. No doubt in my mind. But there is a reason why Bama is less than a TD favorite in the Swamp. One of or the best HFA in CFB.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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are you including coaches, or just players?
UF signed some stellar classes to make up the current squad, and we only have 2 (SO/RS FR and true FR). they have us in the 2008 class (which are SRs or RS JRs), and they may have us in 2010 (especially along the DL), despite how good our class was. we have talent, but it is pretty young. i think they just have more of it right now, if you assume minimal impact from either of our 2011 classes this year.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
I didn’t say more talented, I said better team. I’m not totally sure who I would take on talent, though I think FSU.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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so how would you define better team
since my argument discussed both talent and coaches separately. depending on how the coaches can work with the players they have, i think they are potentially the better overall team because of the experience of their talent, and their coaches arent slackers either. it was dumb to run off so many guys this early, but i take that to mean the few they have left make up for it with ability.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
well experience at certain positions matters a lot, as does coaching.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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other than CB and OG, where are they lacking so badly?
for the record, i think Brantley can be quite serviceable, and the mostly young but talented front 7 should be pretty good.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
I am not sold yet on the offensive line, am not enamored with their defensive depth though it might be better than I think, and we don’t know how their offense will be.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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Should also note that I only have FSU as 55% there
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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i have it at 50%, so we arent so far apart there
if you think we are no doubt better, why only by 55%?
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Because the swamp is right there with LSU and Clemson. Just an incredibly difficult place to win a big game.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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I'm going to that game this year so uhhh,
FSU wins.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 11, 2011 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
i incorporated that
i gave them an extra 5%, since i had the game at 55% (i think we are a little better at that point, mostly because of the OL depth). how much weight do you give HFA there?
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
I would say we are like 62.5% neutral and 67.5% home
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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wow
you think HFA is worth 12.5%? i hope the players dont feel that kind of impact, for our sake. i figured it was a standard 5%, since the intensity of a rivalry game might counteract the crowd (or make them feed off the hate). also, kinda sad to see that means you think the Swamp has 2.5X the effect of Doak. i was more optimistic that we would have a full and rowdy crowd by that point.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
I think you are misreading the post.
55.0% @ UF
62.5% Neutral
67.5% home
how is that 2.5X the amount of influence? I see it as 1.5x
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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oops, did the math with 50 instead of 55
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
wow
you think HFA is worth 12.5%? i hope the players dont feel that kind of impact, for our sake. i figured it was a standard 5%, since the intensity of a rivalry game might counteract the crowd (or make them feed off the hate). also, kinda sad to see that means you think the Swamp has 2.5X the effect of Doak. i was more optimistic that we would have a full and rowdy crowd by that point.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
fair enough
i have the same concern about the OL, i guess i think the D is better than you do, and i think the offense should be figured out by the end of the season (when we play them). if this was week 3, i would say we have a decided advantage. i just dont see a proven OC and DC taking more than a season to have their team playing at a high level. the offense is more of a question mark for me than the defense, but largely because of the OL and lack of ideal personnel to run a pro-style offense. i am assuming they see a difference in play from beginning to end similar to our defense last season: start off a little lost, but pull it together by the end of the season to be good enough. heres hoping i am wrong, and that their OL has the same issues our DL did.
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
what happened to the Dufresnes? how can you eat at a time like this?
Bush, search party of 3! you can eat when you find the Dufresnes
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
He was featured this last weekend on CC 2 or 3 times.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
I dvr'ed it
but they didnt do my favorite
Im tired of following my dreams, Im just going to find out where there going and meet up with them later.
"However, I say, let UM burn." -onebarrelrum
Watched it Sat nite
I will never stop enjoying the absurdity of the pringles-tennis ball joke. Freakin classic
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 12, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Their 3rd and 4th year players may be better than our 3rd and 4th year players.
But I think our first and 2nd year guys are better.
by FSUActuary on Jul 11, 2011 8:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This is one of the problems with going 9-3 last year when FSU arguably played like an 8-4 team. 9-3 this year represents no w/l progress even if the team plays much better. FSU could be a lot better, play like a 10-2 type team and end up 9-3. The team would be much better, but people might not recognize that. The reverse is also true.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 11, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Could be.
But I give the fanbase a little more credit than that. If we are competitive in the tough games and beat at least one of our rivals to end up 8-3 by the time the bowls come around (this doesn’t factor in a potential ACCCG game plus requisite BCS bowl), that would be seen as a definite sign of progress. Like most of us probably feel, winning the ACC should be the standard by which we judge the team this year.
I know you’re a little jaded about the masses’ sentiments given the latter part of the Bowden years, but I think in general people can recognize progress and adjust their expectations accordingly. In other words, they’re coming around.
People are excited about FSU ball for the first time in a long time, and there’s a reason for that. I mean, if anything, it’s nice to go through the emotional rollercoaster of college football KNOWING your team can be competitive, actively rooting for them to fight, and come away with the result win or lose. As opposed to, you know, the 2009 season.
If anything I am jaded by e-mailers.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Even I'm excited about FSU
It’s about time for the traditional powers of college football to rise up again. Hopefully this will be another decade of resurgence by Miami and FSU.
Pittsburgh Steelers fan - nuff said.
Miami Hurricanes fan - nuff said.
Georgetown Hoyas fan - nuff said.
Cleveland Cavaliers fan - um yeah, about that...
by StoneColdSteel on Jul 11, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
So true
I remember feeling so strange about the complacency with which the student body regarded football wins when I got to campus. That lasted only 1 season, and when we didn’t absolutely stomp everybody in the following years it was like 36,000 heads exploding some saturdays. This was back when “die jeff die” was spray painted on a wall near where I lived.
Now, I hope, we collectively value wins. We don’t take the program for granted. As you said, sometimes it’s tough to put season-long records into perspective; and sometimes we don’t see past that record at all. But this sort of run seems to do that for a school, though. You live for the win, not the NC. More people to the “gimme” home games. More people excited throughout the season and not biding time until January. I really wish I was going to be down there for more than just the OU game (hopefully) this year. Seems like it would be a great atmosphere from August to February.
This wasn’t wholly on topic for a reply to your post, but by the time I realized that I didn’t want to back out. Ha
I agree. The past few years will make people appreciate success more.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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This is were the win shares don't take you all the way home. IMO we would have to be a little unlucky to lose 3 games.
The OU game a@ Clem @ UF kill the percentages and our likleyhood of a NT, but we would have to lose three of OU @CLEM MIA @UF and MAYBE @ BC. that would mean we would be 2-3 in those games and I just don’t see it.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Also there is the progressive nature of this little game... beat OU and you jump 60%
Same with the other teams on the list above if we lose to OU but win @CLEM and then later @ BC its highly unlikley we lose three…FROM THAT POINT ON
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Of coarse if you lose to OU and CLEM then your likely hood goes way up.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
This approach does draw to the middle a bit. I bet your numbers give a very solid chance of going 10-2 or better.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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My numbers
are pessimistic early and optimistic late. For me it’s all about
1. Beating ULM handily- coming into the year playing like a BCS team; no doubts, no glaring flaws.
2. Establishing Doak as a severly intimidating place to play- crowd noise, weather, unyeilding pride for that exact spot on the face of the earth
3. Confidence/swag early and often- like it or not we have been, are, and recruit like a team which plays down to others’ levels at times and then swings wildly into juggernaut mode. Jimbo is bringing consistency (thankfully), but we are who we are. If we roll early I believe we roll often.
I got to Tallahassee in ‘00 and this is by far the most excited I’ve ever been for an upcoming season. And with that………I forgive you Chris Rix. There, I said it
by NeuroNole on Jul 11, 2011 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
You're half right
Jeff was at the helm. I never cared for how Rix carried himself off the field (the door-to-door, businesscard type stuff) or on it (definitely can’t blame it ALL on the OC). In my mind he simply represented the dive we took. But (as above), that’s over now.
::grins and blows sand from palm of hand::
your numbering system is alien to me
>>>─────;;─►
by NorFla_Nole on Jul 12, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right he should have been allowed to park wherever he wanted.
had that been a known fact neuronole wouldn’t still be holding a grudge about his missing parking space.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
I guess I didn't notice my cup of Kool Aid
I wound up having us with 10 wins. I guess I went more with what are the chances of a team beating us and what would be the pre game spread. I see BC being a possible trap game but I really gave us the nod vs OU. Probably because I know they are lacking on the road and everyone is looking at last years defense with one game under its belt and all new coaches at their first away game…..not gonna happen.
Rhodes couldn’t even line up right and got toasted on easy fade routes and I don’t see that happening again. Now, NC State has no R. Wilson, BC is on 4 days rest and I am banking on depth for that game. Other than that Duke, Wake, Virginia, the two cupcakes at the begining are 99 wins. That leaves UF and Miami…I didn’t go big on either but I see us favored in both games. Especially Miami in Tally. UF is more of a 50/50 at this point since it is the last game of the season.
Our conference numbers are very close, but your non-confernence numbers vary greatly.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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Weights
Does anyone have any more info on current players weights, including incoming freshmen?
Matias is like 320.
Which are you looking for? I don’t see many true freshmen playing important snaps.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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How about 9-3 or 10-2 before ACC championship game
Possible loss to Okla, Clemson, & a hick up (9-3)
Possible loss to Okla, & a hick up
hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard
by lawj on Jul 11, 2011 7:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
hick up, eh?
is that like when this guy screws up?
"I guess they have a reputation of being more of a tricky team and not being tough. You hit ‘em in the mouth, and they don’t like it. Other teams that have beat them just hit them in the mouth, so that’s what we started out with.’’ - Nick Moody
Hats OFF
To the robot analyst that is Bud E
by spotTHEnole on Jul 11, 2011 7:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
That's 2 comments now that I'm not sure if your being an asshole or if your sense of what is sarcasm is way off.
Your first comment was hidden by MonarchNole, I’m not as patient.
Consider yourself warned.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
I actually think it's a blessing we play UF at the end of the year (this year)
A) some of those early cupcake wins will have Brantley confident early on. Say what you want about him, he is talented, and it shows against inferior defenses. That will be dashed by the time November rolls around (see UF’s October schedule).
2) They have as much talent as us per player, but they have less players, especially on the D-Line. I say we have a legit shot at dominating them in the trenches like they did against us from ‘06-’09.
I think that adds up to an injured, undermanned, discouraged UF team that we play in November, which I am suprisingly confident we can take care of.
I wish we were playing them early
New defense, new offense…sort of like FSU vs OU. Yea the players are there but if you dont know the system you could be an All-American and get toasted.
My thoughts on last year exactly.
Watching Rhodes get toasted on a simple fade told me the new coaches, on the first road trip, in a new system, against a good team was….a bad bad thing! Which is why I look foward to a Nole win against OU. Not so much UF. GIven a whole season FSU looked really really good the last two games against Nationally ranked talent. Something like a couple of touchdowns better. I worry the most about that last game.
I agree I'd prefer early on, but he's got a point with the OL/DL atrition. I think we still win this game because of it.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
I've come to the conclusion
nolengville was actually docholiday. Win Shares of 11.32 Yes please give me some of what he’s having.
I missed my chance to participate.
Will we be doing another one of these post Summer practice?
by fsunole23 on Jul 12, 2011 10:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Same here. Geez, I take 1 afternoon off of the site and I miss something clutch.
"I really can't stand that NFL guy, what's his name? Mel, yeah Mel Kiper Jr. He knows about as much about football as a Japanese space pilot." - Coach Trickett
by Gulfport Nole on Jul 12, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Average of 6 conference wins and 9 wins overall?
I would be devastated by 6 conference win and unless we win the ACCCG and our BCS game, 9 regular season wins would really piss me off. I realize process> results but we have the process and have had it for over a year now, so, I would like an improvement in win totals. I dont feel that that is being greedy or unrealistic.
"But they understand expectations don’t win games. And just because you’re picked to win, they don’t give you the trophy when the season starts. And we tell our kids that we have to form great habits and have great work ethic and form our identity as a team. We just have to reinforce that everyday because as we tell them, the pressure of expectations is only there if we aren’t prepared for them. If we prepared for them and we’re prepared mentally and physically, the pressure of the expectation won’t bother us." - Jimbo Fisher
by Sem1nole on Jul 12, 2011 2:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
This is just a quick look at Oklahoma's schedule and possible win shares:
Tulsa .85
@ FSU .60
Mizzou .75
Ball State .95
Texas .70
@ Kansas .85
Texas Tech .75
@ K State .75
Texas A&M .70
@ Baylor .80
Iowa State .90
@ OK State .70
Oklahoma is favored in every game and 11 of them are 70/30 favorites or better. But that only comes out to 9.30 wins. I’m not sure it’s a great way to predict final records. It’s just a way to gauge the odds of winning each individual game.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed.
Correct, Sir Trick.
You truly are one of God's treasures, Trick
See above where I asked if fans were smart enough to see that FSU was more of an 8-4 level team than a 9-3 level team last year.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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What do you have
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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I have us going 10-2 this year and 7-1 in conference (my personal prediction)
Using win shares I have:
ULM .99
CS .99
OU .5
CU .65
WF .99
DU .99
Mary .95
NCST .90
BC .7
Mia .7
UVA .95
UF .55
I went about this procedure by thinking about what would happen if they played 100 times. I couldn’t imagine losing to ULM or CS once out of 100 times (or once out of 200 between them). I could see us losing to Wake and Duke once out of 100 times, each. I couldn’t imagine losing to UVA or Maryland more than once out of 20 times (5 of 100), per team. I don’t think NC State would beat us more than 10 times out of 100, given the game in Tallahassee and without Wilson. I believe the Florida game at .55 is dead on. I see the BC and Miami games both at .7 because the BC game is on 4 days of rest on a Thursday night against a physical (albeit far less talented) team, while I believe Miami will underachieve this year and the game is in Tallahassee. Clemson at .65 seems about right, meaning we win the game slightly less that 2/3 of the time. I don’t know about the Oklahoma game but I do expect it to be a VERY even match on our field (although I believe they are the better team, hence why I believe it’s even with the homefield advantage).
That’s 6.87 and 9.86, which coincides pretty well with my personal guesstimation. Do you disagree? I would be angry but I would understand 9 wins, but I expect 10. Quality depth and S&C are finally fully in place and I expect that to pay dividends. Sure, we could easily lose 3, but I don’t expect to.
"But they understand expectations don’t win games. And just because you’re picked to win, they don’t give you the trophy when the season starts. And we tell our kids that we have to form great habits and have great work ethic and form our identity as a team. We just have to reinforce that everyday because as we tell them, the pressure of expectations is only there if we aren’t prepared for them. If we prepared for them and we’re prepared mentally and physically, the pressure of the expectation won’t bother us." - Jimbo Fisher
Well I obviously don’t agree exactly with the numbers, but we are not that far off.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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I just don’t feel like this is a three loss team in the ACC. Can we lose 3 games? Sure. And if we do, do you know who I will directly blame? Randall Spetman, for the worst scheduling for a championship striving team I’ve ever seen. This team SHOULD win 10 IMHO.
"But they understand expectations don’t win games. And just because you’re picked to win, they don’t give you the trophy when the season starts. And we tell our kids that we have to form great habits and have great work ethic and form our identity as a team. We just have to reinforce that everyday because as we tell them, the pressure of expectations is only there if we aren’t prepared for them. If we prepared for them and we’re prepared mentally and physically, the pressure of the expectation won’t bother us." - Jimbo Fisher
by Sem1nole on Jul 13, 2011 1:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Way late to this party... however I got 9.45
funny how “swing games” really are just that… an OU win would bump my probablility to 10 even… winning CLEM after would bump it to 10.40… add BC or UM and your creeping up close to 11.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
I like how two "ballots" were cast with my username that I didn't submit. haha
An kind off oddly they were only 3 submissions apart.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
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Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed.
Correct, Sir Trick.
You truly are one of God's treasures, Trick
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