Florida State Win Prediction Poll - Fall Practice 2011

It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler.  Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method.  We call it "proportional win shares".  You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games. 

The idea is simple:  assign a winning % to each game.  For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), or that they have a 50% chance to beat UF (0.50).

You know the drill. You give us odds on each game. We add up those odds. And you get a picture of a likely final schedule. Why do this? Well, it's more educated than chanting "10-and-2!" down the hallowed halls of Bellamy Bldg. Or "5-loss team" from your still-real-to-you cell at Sunland. Perhaps one day we'll find the Rainbow Connection and make the Decision Tree idea from TN poster TuckNole feasible with GoogleDocs (the poll form).

This is your chance to show us how good or bad you think Florida State will be. It's simple. Ask yourself, "how likely is FSU to win in each game?"

Take the survey HERE!

For posterity, you may view user results HERE (click to see your results). However, we encourage you to only view these once you've submitted your own predictions in order to minimize inducing any further bias. Also, below are the results from the July poll. Wait to look at those until you've done your own poll.

We'll provide some summary statistics here, or in a follow-up article for those of you scared of spreadsheets.

Additional Note: Google is acting up on this edition of the poll. Double-check your %. If it's listed as 0.01, let me know what you want it changed to.

Our last poll was conducted on July 11th, the terminus of Summer conditioning. Here are the poll results from that melee.

ULM CS OU @CU @WF @DU UMd. NCSU @BC UM UVa. @UF Conference Total
Averages 0.98 0.98 0.44 0.62 0.88 0.93 0.81 0.76 0.72 0.70 0.85 0.60 6.26 9.26
+/- 2 SD 0.06 0.04 0.20 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.97 1.25

 

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