Will The ACC Have A Winning Record Against BCS Teams?

% Odds Game
45.0% Oklahoma Sooners @ Florida St. Seminoles
55.0% Florida St. Seminoles @ Florida Gators
60.0% N.C. State Wolfpack @ Cincinnati Bearcats
65.0% Auburn Tigers @ Clemson Tigers
37.5% Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
40.0% West Virginia Mountaineers @ Maryland Terrapins
22.5% Maryland Terrapins @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
70.0% Northwestern Wildcats @ Boston College Eagles
17.5% Boston College Eagles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
25.0% Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Syracuse Orange
7.5% Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
50.0% Vanderbilt Commodores @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
80.0% Rutgers Scarlett Knights @ North Carolina Tar Heels
77.5% Louisville Cardinals @ North Carolina Tar Heels
50.0% Ohio State Buckeyes @ Miami Hurricanes
72.5% Kansas State Wildcats @ Miami Hurricanes
50.0% Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls
92.5% Kansas Jayhawks @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
35.0% Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
50.0% Virginia Cavaliers @ Indiana Hoosiers
12.5% Stanford Cardinal @ Duke Blue Devils

Recently, Heather Dinich posted five things she would need to see from the ACC before she would believe them.  Today, I'll break down one of those items.  

"The ACC will have a winning record against its BCS opponents. The ACC has a good chance of earning a winning record against the SEC this year, but overall I remain in doubt about whether or not the ACC can improve upon last year's 9-14 record against BCS opponents."

There is a key question here: Does Notre Dame Count?  Notre Dame is in the BCS, but not in a BCS conference. Because the ACC could really pull this off if Notre Dame doesn't count.  

Why is that?  The ACC plays 21 games against BCS competition, as I said.  That is an incredible number and is much higher than any other conference (21/48 non-con games are against BCS teams).

As you can see in the chart at left,  I currently project the ACC to go 10-11 in those 21 games.

But if Notre Dame doesn't count, I project the ACC to go 10-8 or 9-9 in its 18 games against teams within a BCS conference. Notre Dame is really picking off the mid and lower-tier programs in the conference.  Smart on their part as the ACC teams go for the cash grab.

Meanwhile, UNC seems to be doing the smart thing by scheduling two very average Big East teams, neither of which are a serious threat to beat them.

Of course, the biggest wildcard here is the Miami Hurricanes. I have split the difference with my predictions, as nobody can be sure who (if anyone) will be suspended for the 'Canes, and for how long.

Verdict: There's a chance.

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