New Stat - uAYA: Part II - Defensive uAYA (D-uAYA)

Several weeks ago I published the first part of this data: Offensive uAYA. It was extremely long as I went through the laborious methods and equations I used to arrive at my final numbers. I won't rehash that here, but in summary uAYA is a 'yard-per-play' metric that accounts for yards gained, turnovers, and touchdowns using the following equation:

([Total Yards + 18*RushTD + 20*PassTD - 45*INTs - 25*Fumb]/Attempts)

Just like I did for Offensive uAYA, after compiling the defensive data for all 120 teams, I was able to adjust D-uAYA for strength of schedule and rank all teams based on this yard-per-play measure.

Before we make the jump and get to the data, I'd like to quickly look at FSU's defense using D-uAYA.

In 2009, FSU's defense gave up 5,649 yards on 837 plays, forced 20 fumbles, had 14 interceptions, and yielded 26 passing TDs and 27 rushing TDs, for an unadjusted D-uAYA of 6.58. In 2010, only 11 teams had a worse unadjusted uAYA than what FSU fielded in 2009.

In 2010, FSU's defense gave up 4,952 yards on 1,005 plays, forced 23 fumbles, had 15 interceptions, and yielded 17 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs, for an unadjusted D-uAYA of 4.24, checking in at #31, 10 spots better than in Football Outsider's F/+.

As we anticipate the 2011 season, how much will the defense improve? In 2010, the Noles improved their D-uAYA by 35% from 2009. Can we expect similar improvement in 2011?

As a reminder, the 'Final Adjusted D-uAYA' is calculated exactly like O-uAYA from the previous article, which includes comparing each teams D-uAYA to what it would have been had they all faced the hardest set of offenses in the nation (that honor belonged to USCe).

	Team	O-uAYA	D-uAYA	Opp. uAYA	Opp. D-uAYA	Adj. O-uAYA	Adj. D-uAYA	Adj.Fin D-uAYA
1	Alabama	7.29	3.25	5.49	5.01	7.94	2.56	2.69
2	Ohio State	6.82	2.84	5.41	5.35	6.87	2.41	2.7
3	LSU	4.84	3.54	5.51	4.59	5.7	2.93	3.14
4	Boise State	8.04	2.8	5.29	5.47	8	2.69	3.17
5	Boston College	3.8	3.35	5.22	4.79	4.17	2.95	3.38
6	TCU	7.31	3.14	5.35	5.48	7.23	2.94	3.41
7	Florida	4.5	3.68	5.35	4.57	5.3	3.21	3.55
8	Oregon	7.05	3.53	5.2	5.29	7.29	3.28	3.71
9	West Virginia	5	3.14	4.84	4.71	5.4	3.03	3.72
10	Texas A&M	5.05	3.93	5.53	4.72	5.67	3.39	3.72
11	South Carolina	5.61	4.8	5.95	4.7	6.3	3.77	3.77
12	Mississippi State	5.59	4.75	5.96	5.15	5.89	3.77	3.77
13	Clemson	4.39	4.04	5.31	4.67	4.96	3.52	3.93
14	Oklahoma	5.62	4.06	5.38	4.74	6.17	3.6	4.03
15	California	4.82	4.29	5.52	5.18	5.07	3.78	4.08
16	Iowa	6.47	4.13	5.47	5.18	6.75	3.69	4.1
17	Texas	4.4	3.81	5.27	5.23	4.51	3.56	4.13
18	Notre Dame	5.05	4.41	5.66	4.8	5.55	3.81	4.15
19	Maryland	5.69	3.8	5.06	4.93	5.99	3.56	4.19
20	Stanford	7.31	4	5.19	5.1	7.72	3.73	4.24
21	Nebraska	5.44	3.76	5.17	5.07	5.69	3.61	4.25
22	Missouri	5.62	4	5.36	4.9	6.03	3.72	4.28
23	Pittsburgh	5.38	4.03	5.12	4.56	5.86	3.69	4.33
24	Arkansas	6.93	4.63	5.61	4.65	7.8	4.05	4.35
25	Arizona	4.75	4.75	5.68	4.91	5.25	4.11	4.38
26	Georgia	6.17	4.48	5.46	4.98	6.65	4.02	4.45
27	Auburn	7.95	5.07	5.74	4.69	8.79	4.3	4.48
28	Arizona State	5.3	4.8	5.57	5.03	5.75	4.23	4.53
29	Michigan State	6.16	4.58	5.55	5.04	6.56	4.13	4.55
30	Illinois	5.68	4.87	5.71	5.3	5.82	4.25	4.57
31	Florida State	5.71	4.24	5.1	4.46	6.58	3.95	4.58
32	Tennessee	5.26	4.68	5.47	4.88	5.8	4.22	4.62
33	Virginia Tech	6.49	4.62	5.4	4.89	6.86	4.14	4.64
34	North Carolina	5.62	4.46	5.12	5.02	5.91	4.1	4.69
35	Wisconsin	7.47	4.67	5.47	5.31	7.73	4.3	4.79
36	Purdue	3.77	4.92	5.64	5.19	4	4.41	4.84
37	Miami	4.85	4.03	5.33	4.54	5.52	3.91	4.84
38	Penn State	5.03	5.09	5.64	4.76	5.61	4.51	4.89
39	BYU	4.78	4.44	5.35	5.37	4.68	4.24	4.92
40	Hawaii	7.52	4.11	5.26	5.69	7.31	4.11	4.92
41	Oregon State	5.02	5.45	5.81	4.64	5.78	4.73	4.97
42	Oklahoma State	7.63	4.41	5.25	5.22	7.75	4.25	5.01
43	Iowa State	4.21	5.07	5.56	4.82	4.64	4.59	5.09
44	Syracuse	4.7	4.21	4.81	4.77	4.95	4.13	5.14
45	Connecticut	4.45	4.14	4.83	4.62	4.83	4.11	5.17
46	Central Florida	5.77	4.06	5.17	5.67	5.42	4.2	5.27
47	Utah	6.03	4.48	5.18	5.09	6.36	4.4	5.27
48	North Carolina State	5.44	5.02	5.28	4.57	6.05	4.63	5.29
49	South Florida	4.2	4.29	4.77	4.52	4.71	4.28	5.38
50	Air Force	6.24	4.64	5.22	5.26	6.31	4.6	5.54
51	Louisville	5.79	4.66	4.98	4.98	5.93	4.55	5.57
52	USC	5.96	5.53	5.41	5.09	6.36	5.12	5.66
53	Vanderbilt	3.44	5.6	5.29	5.15	3.68	5.15	5.73
54	Washington	5.29	5.3	5.28	4.72	5.97	5.05	5.76
55	Fresno State	5.37	5.69	5.69	5.4	5.34	5.24	5.8
56	SMU	5.89	5.08	5.55	5.52	5.71	4.94	5.82
57	Wake Forest	4.5	5.65	5.3	4.71	5.04	5.22	5.89
58	Kentucky	6.31	5.63	5.29	5.07	6.64	5.26	5.97
59	Colorado	4.67	5.73	5.45	5.03	4.99	5.34	6
60	Texas Tech	5.64	5.37	5.29	5.02	6.01	5.2	6.07
61	San Jose State	4.15	6.49	6.01	4.98	4.56	5.81	6.09
62	Georgia Tech	5.2	5.3	5.1	5.07	5.4	5.14	6.1
63	Louisiana Tech	4.54	5.8	5.67	5.24	4.72	5.46	6.12
64	San Diego State	7.02	4.64	4.95	5.53	6.9	4.86	6.13
65	UCLA	3.72	6.12	5.54	5.01	4.13	5.64	6.14
66	Cincinnati	5.43	5.29	4.99	4.48	5.98	5.1	6.2
67	Navy	6.44	5.41	5.34	5.3	6.49	5.25	6.24
68	Army	5	5.15	5.21	5.32	4.83	5.09	6.26
69	Buffalo	2.92	4.43	4.88	5.38	2.38	4.67	6.3
70	Mississippi	5.55	6.44	5.65	4.95	6.07	5.85	6.31
71	Toledo	5.23	4.63	4.97	5.23	5.01	4.82	6.32
72	Idaho	4.87	5.35	5.3	5.51	4.77	5.31	6.35
73	Washington State	4.34	6.7	5.7	4.84	4.95	6.06	6.43
74	Marshall	4.1	4.88	5.18	5.28	4	5.07	6.44
75	Virginia	5.02	6.02	5.2	5	5.23	5.66	6.49
76	Louisiana Monroe	3.89	5.45	5.32	5.26	3.77	5.35	6.51
77	Rutgers	4.17	5.5	5.04	4.57	4.59	5.34	6.52
78	Utah State	4.29	6.2	5.69	5.08	4.59	5.85	6.55
79	Southern Mississippi	5.94	5.15	5.17	5.67	5.67	5.29	6.58
80	Duke	4.35	6.38	5.45	4.64	4.96	5.9	6.59
81	Baylor	6.5	5.76	5.32	4.94	6.91	5.6	6.61
82	Minnesota	5.12	6.71	5.84	4.77	5.71	6.13	6.61
83	Northwestern	4.98	5.84	5.31	5.42	5.07	5.68	6.61
84	Temple	4.93	3.98	4.53	5.08	4.75	4.56	6.68
85	Tulsa	6.88	5.68	5.48	5.6	6.63	5.61	6.7
86	Michigan	6.42	6.28	5.43	4.76	7.14	5.93	6.7
87	Wyoming	4.55	5.87	5.43	4.84	4.99	5.71	6.72
88	Kent State	4.02	4.06	4.51	5.01	3.93	4.65	6.78
89	Central Michigan	4.57	5.45	5.22	5.32	4.18	5.43	6.84
90	Nevada	7.27	5.02	4.89	5.37	7.4	5.37	6.91
91	Kansas	3.74	6.48	5.43	5.16	3.89	6.14	6.96
92	Arkansas State	5.41	5.67	5.28	5.56	4.98	5.67	7.03
93	Miami (OH)	4.74	4.5	4.56	5.28	4.38	5.02	7.18
94	Tulane	4.39	5.97	5.44	5.46	4.22	5.95	7.21
95	Florida International	5.43	4.96	4.83	5.15	5.34	5.34	7.26
96	Houston	6.24	5.67	5.26	5.62	6.04	5.84	7.27
97	Western Michigan	5.55	4.96	4.76	5.41	5.19	5.33	7.32
98	UNLV	3.91	7.13	5.75	4.85	4.29	6.65	7.33
99	Louisiana Lafayette	4.31	5.85	5.21	5.44	3.93	5.94	7.55
100	Kansas State	6.03	6.23	5.15	5.09	6.25	6.24	7.56
101	Indiana	5.25	6.87	5.48	5.18	5.46	6.59	7.57
102	East Carolina	5.76	6.88	5.59	5.24	5.83	6.58	7.58
103	New　 Mexico State	3.43	7.46	5.39	5.42	3.39	7.46	7.75
104	Florida Atlantic	3.79	5.37	4.93	5.27	3.59	5.76	7.77
105	Middle Tennessee	4.33	5.04	4.76	5.73	3.7	5.56	7.79
106	UAB	5.53	5.87	5.14	5.51	5.36	6.13	7.85
107	UTEP	5.17	5.63	4.97	5.88	4.7	6.03	7.88
108	Colorado State	4.09	6.73	5.34	5.15	4.18	6.63	7.89
109	Northern Illinois	7.53	4.99	4.61	5.42	7.22	5.55	7.93
110	Rice	5.09	6.81	5.56	5.52	4.84	6.72	7.98
111	Troy	5.55	5.53	4.92	5.47	5.14	5.9	7.99
112	Ball State	3.86	5.4	4.78	5.23	3.62	5.83	8.12
113	Bowling Green	3.36	5.86	4.97	5.01	3.26	6.13	8.27
114	Memphis	3.73	7.25	5.53	5.25	3.74	7.15	8.51
115	Western Kentucky	4.81	6.19	4.92	5.37	4.51	6.54	8.76
116	New Mexico	2.66	6.82	5.44	5.26	2.69	6.65	8.88
117	Akron	3.39	6.49	4.96	4.97	3.21	6.7	8.95
118	North Texas	5.15	6.01	4.84	5.52	4.74	6.5	8.99
119	Ohio	4.77	5.68	4.48	5.11	4.58	6.41	9.67
120	Eastern Michigan	4.36	8.28	4.95	4.97	4.34	8.59	11.61

FSU single game uAYA 2010

As you can see, our defense was actually fairly consistent in the D-uAYA it yielded outside of our three worst games: UNC, VT, and OU. And our three best games were against Wake, BYU, and UF.

Somehow, I'm going to try to add this data game-by-game to Dr.K's ongoing data collection and presentation so we can keep track of where we're along the way this year. If there is any specific data you'd like to see out of this system, or if you have questions, just let me know.

Poll

What will FSU's D-uAYA be in 2011?

12%

> 4 (29 votes)

30%

3.5 - 4 (74 votes)

40%

3 - 3.5 (97 votes)

16%

< 3 (39 votes)

239 total votes

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New Stat - uAYA: Part II - Defensive uAYA (D-uAYA)

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New Stat - uAYA: Part II - Defensive uAYA (D-uAYA)

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