FanPost

ULM Wx Forecast UPDATE 2

 

Its that time of year again where we all get fired up about the CFB season! Last year I tried to give a pretty decent look into the potential weather hazards for each FSU game. I hope that I can do the same this year.

As of right now, expect an outstanding morning to "pregame" for the years first victim! I expect temps to be near 72F at 8:00 a.m. Perfect for tailgating festivities. Temps will rise quickly as the day progresses and at game time expect a temp near 93F. Winds will be very light and varying in direction. I do expect a small chance, less than 30%, chance for afternoon pop up thunderstorms. If thunderstorms were to occur, the best time would be after the 3 p.m., more than enough time for Jimbo to run up a 5 TD lead. Max temp during game time will be 93F.

As I did last year I'll update on Wednesday and Friday, unless something significant pops up. Unfortunately I will be unable to METWATCH (watch out for thunderstorms) this week because of a trip to the in-laws for the holiday weekend. I'm sure there are a few meteorology students with weather tap accounts out there that could step up and give updates during the game. Maybe we can get lucky enough for Bud to place the coverage maps on the forecast FanPost like he did many times last year! Have a great week and as always, GO NOLES!

 

Tuesday update: NHC (National Hurricane Center) as of right now has only a 10% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours in the Gulf of Mexico right now. The NAM Model shows a cyclone developing in the southern gulf and tracking toward the TX/LA border for land fall late Saturday. The GFS Model on the other hand has another idea about this system. It actually develops it, has it sit on the LA coast for 2 days, moves it back into the Gulf and then sends it on a trajectory toward the Tampa Bay area, then moves it north toward north Florida. What can we gather from this? Traditional models used to forecast weather DO NOT handle tropical cyclones well. Tropical cyclones develop and support themselves completely different from all of weather phenomena. I will continue to monitor the NHC for there EXTREMY EDUCATED predictions. No need to panic right now, as I believe this cyclone will remain to the west of Tallahassee. I am working night shift right now so ill give another update late tonight when the NHC updates there areas of interest. Check back tomorrow morning,

 

Wednesday Morning @ 4:15 am: NHC is still holding pattern with the 10% chance of development over the next 48hrs. NAM and GFS have started to line up a LITTLE better with development times. As for movement they are far apart. At this time I am siding a little more with the due to it showing the cyclone riding up the backside of the high pressure system located in the southeast at this time. As i stated before, NHC are the ones to follow on these systems. But at this time no cyclone has officially developed so they don't discuss it. I will continue to monitor the situation and give updates as needed. I do suspect, for most Floridians, to begin to see the local news stations reporting on the "possible development" of a tropical cyclone with in the next few days. Any and all input from the large pool of weather experts on here is greatly appreciated.

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