'Noles News 10.17.12

Mike Ehrmann - Getty Images

Stay up to date on the latest Florida State news and notes.

Fisher on Miami's QB situation (Morris practiced Wednesday, though he was limited. It seems he may be able to go.):

"They're going to do some things different, but there are 10 other guys on the field and they're going to run their offense," Fisher said, when asked about the challenges of preparing for two different quarterbacks. "There's only so much they can change. They'll make adjustments - don't get me wrong - and call plays each of them like differently. We don't know what the other one likes so much, but they're still going to run the basis of their offense and the foundation of their offense.

"It's not as drastic as you might think it is. There are differences. Now if one of them only ran option and the Wildcat all the time, and the other one threw all of the time, that would be more extreme."

Wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw were held out of practice Tuesday due to illness. Fisher said that he expects the pair, who are roommates, to return Wednesday. Rumors swirled Tuesday that Benjamin had broken a major team rule and had been dismissed, and for about 90 minutes nobody had any definitive answers. That those rumors were false is good news.

FSU needs to finish drives against Miami

Every team has moved the ball against Miami. Even Boston College. The difference between blowing Miami out and not has been avoiding turnovers and scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Let's have a look:

The Boston College Eagles had drives of 66, 58 and 60 end in field goals, had a drive of 47 end on a fumble, and a drive of 81 end on downs (a questionable officiating call, BTW). And they still scored 32 points on this Miami defense.

For the Kansas State Wildcats, this was not an issue. At home, Miami came to town and promptly surrendered seven touchdowns. Georgia Tech scored 36 and generally was good in the red zone.

N.C. State scored 37 points, but had a drive of 56 end in an interception, and a drive of 49 result in a missed field goal. Overall, they were pretty good in the red zone (4 touchdowns in 5 trips).

Notre Dame had drives of 70 and 65 end in field goals, and a drive of 53 end in a missed field goal. They played an extremely slow tempo (each team had the ball only 9 times!). They still had 7.6 yards/play and scored 41 points.

North Carolina had a drive of 72 yards end in an interception, a drive of 56 end in a missed field goal, and a drive of 73 end in a missed field goal, and a drive of 45 end in a field goal.

For comparison purposes

The defenses FSU has played to this point according to F/+? 37 N.C. State, 45 Wake Forest, 79 USF, 81 Clemson, 82 Boston College, 92 Miami.

The offenses? 17 Clemson, 20 USF (surprisingly good in most of its games), 32 N.C. State, 50 Miami, 87 Boston College, 96 Wake Forest

Etc.

Ranking one-loss teams by likelihood they will win out - NCF - ESPNRanking one-loss teams by likelihood they will win out - NCF - ESPN

Likelihood of winning out: 29.3 percent
None of the one-loss teams has a better chance of going undefeated the rest of the way than Florida State, according to our data. In fact, the Seminoles have the second-best chance of winning out of any team, behind only Alabama (30.7 percent chance of going undefeated). That's due largely to their schedule, of course, but FSU does have a solid profile in all three phases of the game.

The competition doesn't compare to some other leagues, but the Seminoles rank third nationally in avoiding three-and-outs (14.3 percent of non-garbage drives versus FBS opponents). The defense has swallowed up most opponent drives as well, ranking fourth in our opponent-adjusted defensive FEI rating. While not as elite as previous Florida State teams, special teams have been a boost as well, helping the Seminoles to the sixth-best field position advantage on the season.

Unlike Oklahoma, the Seminoles won't get much love down the stretch unless they post some major attention-grabbing blowout victories. They do have the advantage of a showcase game at home against Florida at the end of the year. Still, that game also will need to turn some heads to bounce FSU ahead of one-loss conference champs from stronger conferences.

Jimbo Fisher says lack of holding flags against Florida State no issue - ESPN
Good article here by David Hale following up on what we wrote about Sunday.

The Alphabetical, Week 8: I'm sorry I was so strong and cool - SBNation.com

Yeesh. Florida State-Miami is this weekend, if you're into things that were relevant in 1991. It's the contractually obligated REM album of football matchups! (P.S. Miami is going to diiiiiiiiiiiie, but if no one is there to see it did it really happen at all?)

The Numerical, Week 7: Surges, missed opportunities and 31 passes to one guy - SBNation.com

Miami and North Carolina crossed each other's 40 13 times and scored a grand total of five times. Miami turned the ball over on downs in UNC territory three times, while UNC contributed a pair of missed field goals. The Heels and 'Canes combined to gain 901 yards … and score 32 points.
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