I've been tracking this since the start of the season but figured other people might be interested in it as well. These are the number of wins a team should be expecting given their schedule and the probability that team will go undefeated through their remaining games. These are not set in stone either, but are fluid and constantly shifting each week based on each teams performance. This is why probabilities of going undefeated go up and down depending on the week. The weeks listed are at the end of each week of CFB and do not include conference championship games.
Florida State currently has the highest probability of going undefeated of the top 10 teams in the polls, though it hasn't been that way for each week through the season. Notice the large jump in probability between weeks 2 and 3 showing the large jump for week 3 after we beat Clemson.
Should FSU continue undefeated, it would appear that they will most likely face Alabama in the National Championship game.
I plan on updating this each week on Tuesday.
| Week | Start | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | # Wins | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| Prob Undefeated | 5.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 23.3% | 22.9% | 27.5% | |
| Alabama | # Wins | 10.5 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 10.9 |
| Prob Undefeated | 16.2% | 35.5% | 31.8% | 38.3% | 30.5% | 25.7% | |
| Oregon | # Wins | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| Prob Undefeated | 16.5% | 16.8% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 20.1% | 14.9% | |
| LSU | # Wins | 10.6 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| Prob Undefeated | 18.7% | 10.9% | 25.0% | 21.6% | 19.9% | 13.5% | |
| Notre Dame | # Wins | 6.9 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| Prob Undefeated | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | |
| Kansas State | # Wins | 7.4 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| Prob Undefeated | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | |
| West Virginia | # Wins | 8.9 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| Prob Undefeated | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.4% | |
| Florida | # Wins | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| Prob Undefeated | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
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