With K. ST and Oregon losing, FSU might still have a chance to sneak into the NC game IMO. How can this happen?
Of course ND has to lose at USC. Unlikely. If they do win they get the right to take their beating against the SEC winner. But for fun, assume ND does lose.
In this scenario, the biggest advantage FSU has is they are the only team in the top 10 besides Bama/UGA, and K State who can win their conference. Stanford is next highest, currently ranked 13.
Of course FSU has to win out. We will also need a lot of voter favor. Here's how we get that:
Beat UF soundly (2 TD's). GT plays UGA tough and then FSU beats GT convincingly (if UM pulls out) in ACCCG. UGA then plays Bama tough or wins. If UF currently has the toughest SOS, beating them might catapult us over all the 2 loss SEC teams currently ranked ahead of us - who again can't win their conference (debatable how much that means though).
Even if all this happens, I still think we're on the outside looking in. With the computers against us, we need heavy voter bias and we haven't exactly passed the "eyeball test." But who has passed the eyeball test this year besides Oregon...we thought?
Lose or win close v. UF and it's a mute point. Beat UF soundly and all Tallahassee eyes turn to the left coast Saturday night at 8:00...
It's more likely than not that this pie in the sky scenario has a huge hole in it so where am I going wrong?