Much has been made about Florida State’s ranking in the various polls this season and the ostensible unfairness and biases that exist. As an engineer, I was very interested in the fundamental question of "how do we know that conference A is better than conference B?" By attempting to answer this question, what can be learned and how can we modify our behavior to take advtantage of it? Ranking systems are largely predicated on a large transitivity algorithm. In effect, if A > B and B > C, it follows that A > C. The fundamental flaw in this approach is the sheer number of FBS teams and the limited number of out of conference games available to be played.
The table below is an illustration of which conferences are playing which others. It is meant to be interpreted as the row represents the conference in question and the column represents the number of games played against in the conference in the column. For example, the ACC has played the MAC in two separate games. The Mountain West (MWC) has played the Conference USA (CUSA) in two games. The numbers across the main diagonal are for inter-conference play. Keep in mind this table only involves games played until week 13.
|
ACC |
BEC |
BIG10 |
BIG12 |
CUSA |
INDEP |
MAC |
MWC |
PAC12 |
SBC |
SEC |
WAC |
FCS |
Total |
|
|
ACC |
44 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
15 |
90 |
|
BEC |
8 |
21 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
12 |
63 |
|
BIG10 |
2 |
3 |
42 |
1 |
5 |
5 |
12 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
12 |
94 |
|
BIG12 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
37 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
67 |
|
CUSA |
2 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
42 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
93 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
6 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
6 |
45 |
|
MAC |
2 |
8 |
12 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
46 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
16 |
103 |
|
MWC |
0 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
35 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
12 |
79 |
|
PAC12 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
7 |
49 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
83 |
|
SBC |
3 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
34 |
12 |
1 |
18 |
85 |
|
SEC |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
54 |
3 |
17 |
108 |
|
WAC |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
17 |
16 |
65 |
|
FCS |
15 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
9 |
6 |
16 |
12 |
8 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
308 |
458 |
When looking at a team’s schedule you often see 8/9 conference games and 3/4 out of conference games and assume the ratio for all teams and the season is roughly 70 – 80% in conference. While this may be true on a conference’s individual participation, in conference games are in effect double counted for a conference. One will get a win, one will get a loss. This emphasizes the importance of the out of conference games for overall conference perception.
Another interesting note is that the "power conferences" (PAC12, ACC, BIG10, BIG12, Big East, SEC) really don’t play each other all that much. Here’s a table of the number of games played by each of the power conferences against each other:
|
Conference |
"Power Conference" |
Non-Power |
FCS |
|
ACC |
16 |
15 |
15 |
|
BEC |
15 |
15 |
12 |
|
BIG10 |
12 |
28 |
12 |
|
BIG12 |
6 |
15 |
9 |
|
PAC12 |
9 |
17 |
8 |
|
SEC |
10 |
27 |
17 |
These stats may be a perhaps bit misleading because the different conferences are playing differing numbers of out of conference games and have different numbers of members. So let’s go for a normalized ratio to see the trend:
|
Conference |
"Power Conference" |
Non-Power |
FCS |
|
ACC |
0.35 |
0.33 |
0.33 |
|
BEC |
0.36 |
0.36 |
0.29 |
|
BIG10 |
0.23 |
0.54 |
0.23 |
|
BIG12 |
0.20 |
0.50 |
0.30 |
|
PAC12 |
0.26 |
0.50 |
0.24 |
|
SEC |
0.19 |
0.50 |
0.31 |
It’s an interesting observation that the two conferences perceived to be the weakest (ACC and Big East) have scheduled the highest ratio of power conference teams in out of conference games.
How have the conferences fared when playing each other?
|
ACC |
BEC |
BIG10 |
BIG12 |
CUSA |
INDEPENDENT |
MAC |
MWC |
PAC12 |
SBC |
SEC |
WAC |
FCS |
|
|
ACC |
44-44 |
4-4 |
1-1 |
0-3 |
2-0 |
1-5 |
2-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
2-1 |
1-1 |
1-1 |
16-0 |
|
BEC |
4-4 |
21-21 |
0-3 |
0-0 |
2-0 |
2-1 |
4-4 |
1-0 |
0-1 |
1-0 |
3-0 |
0-0 |
11-1 |
|
BIG10 |
1-1 |
3-0 |
42-42 |
0-1 |
5-0 |
1-4 |
9-3 |
3-0 |
1-3 |
1-0 |
1-1 |
1-1 |
12-0 |
|
BIG12 |
3-0 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
37-37 |
5-1 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
3-0 |
0-1 |
3-0 |
1-0 |
1-0 |
10-0 |
|
CUSA |
0-2 |
0-2 |
0-5 |
1-5 |
42-42 |
0-1 |
1-1 |
1-1 |
0-2 |
2-6 |
0-7 |
2-3 |
6-3 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
5-1 |
1-2 |
4-1 |
1-0 |
1-0 |
2-2 |
1-4 |
3-2 |
2-2 |
1-1 |
0-0 |
3-2 |
5-1 |
|
MAC |
0-2 |
4-4 |
3-9 |
1-0 |
1-1 |
4-1 |
46-46 |
1-1 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-5 |
2-0 |
15-1 |
|
MWC |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-3 |
0-3 |
1-1 |
2-3 |
1-1 |
35-35 |
3-4 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
4-5 |
10-2 |
|
PAC12 |
1-0 |
1-0 |
3-1 |
1-0 |
2-0 |
2-2 |
1-0 |
4-3 |
49-49 |
1-0 |
0-2 |
1-1 |
8-0 |
|
SBC |
0-3 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-3 |
6-2 |
1-1 |
1-0 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
34-34 |
2-10 |
0-1 |
16-2 |
|
SEC |
1-1 |
0-3 |
1-1 |
0-1 |
7-0 |
0-0 |
5-0 |
0-0 |
2-0 |
10-2 |
51-51 |
3-0 |
17-0 |
|
WAC |
1-1 |
0-0 |
1-1 |
0-1 |
3-2 |
2-3 |
0-2 |
5-4 |
1-1 |
1-0 |
0-3 |
17-17 |
13-3 |
|
FCS |
0-16 |
1-11 |
0-12 |
0-10 |
3-6 |
1-5 |
1-15 |
2-10 |
0-8 |
2-16 |
0-17 |
3-13 |
317-317 |
Interesting to see the data at this granularity, but let’s aggregate the out of conference records:
|
Conference |
Wins |
Losses |
|
ACC |
30 |
17 |
|
BEC |
28 |
14 |
|
BIG10 |
38 |
14 |
|
BIG12 |
27 |
4 |
|
CUSA |
13 |
38 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
27 |
16 |
|
MAC |
31 |
26 |
|
MWC |
21 |
23 |
|
PAC12 |
25 |
9 |
|
SBC |
26 |
25 |
|
SEC |
46 |
8 |
|
WAC |
27 |
21 |
|
FCS |
13 |
139 |
Translating this into percentages and the conference hierarchy becomes:
|
Rank |
Conference |
Wins |
Losses |
Win PCT |
|
1 |
BIG12 |
27 |
4 |
0.8709677 |
|
2 |
SEC |
46 |
8 |
0.8518519 |
|
3 |
PAC12 |
25 |
9 |
0.7352941 |
|
4 |
BIG10 |
38 |
14 |
0.7307692 |
|
5 |
BEC |
28 |
14 |
0.6666667 |
|
6 |
ACC |
30 |
17 |
0.6382979 |
|
7 |
INDEPENDENT |
27 |
16 |
0.627907 |
|
8 |
WAC |
27 |
21 |
0.5625 |
|
9 |
MAC |
31 |
26 |
0.5438596 |
|
10 |
SBC |
26 |
25 |
0.5098039 |
|
11 |
MWC |
21 |
23 |
0.4772727 |
|
12 |
CUSA |
13 |
38 |
0.254902 |
|
13 |
FCS |
13 |
139 |
0.0855263 |
What do the specific losses look like? (FCS excluded because there are just too many)
|
Conference |
Lost |
Winner |
By |
|
ACC |
Miami-Florida |
Kansas State |
39 |
|
ACC |
Wake Forest |
Notre Dame |
38 |
|
ACC |
Miami-Florida |
Notre Dame |
38 |
|
ACC |
Duke |
Stanford |
37 |
|
ACC |
Georgia Tech |
Brigham Young |
24 |
|
ACC |
Georgia Tech |
Middle Tennessee |
21 |
|
ACC |
Virginia |
Texas Christian |
20 |
|
ACC |
Virginia Tech |
Pittsburgh |
18 |
|
ACC |
Boston College |
Notre Dame |
15 |
|
ACC |
N. C. State |
Tennessee |
14 |
|
ACC |
Maryland |
West Virginia |
10 |
|
ACC |
Boston College |
Northwestern |
9 |
|
ACC |
Virginia |
Louisiana Tech |
6 |
|
ACC |
North Carolina |
Louisville |
5 |
|
ACC |
Virginia Tech |
Cincinnati |
3 |
|
ACC |
Boston College |
Army |
3 |
|
ACC |
Maryland |
Connecticut |
3 |
|
BEC |
South Florida |
Miami-Florida |
31 |
|
BEC |
Pittsburgh |
Youngstown St. |
14 |
|
BEC |
Syracuse |
Southern Cal |
13 |
|
BEC |
South Florida |
Florida State |
13 |
|
BEC |
Rutgers |
Kent State |
12 |
|
BEC |
Temple |
Penn State |
11 |
|
BEC |
Temple |
Maryland |
9 |
|
BEC |
Syracuse |
Minnesota |
7 |
|
BEC |
Connecticut |
Western Michigan |
6 |
|
BEC |
Cincinnati |
Toledo |
6 |
|
BEC |
South Florida |
Ball State |
4 |
|
BEC |
Pittsburgh |
Notre Dame |
3 |
|
BEC |
Connecticut |
N. C. State |
3 |
|
BEC |
Syracuse |
Northwestern |
1 |
|
BIG10 |
Illinois |
Arizona State |
31 |
|
BIG10 |
Illinois |
Louisiana Tech |
28 |
|
BIG10 |
Michigan |
Alabama |
27 |
|
BIG10 |
Michigan State |
Notre Dame |
17 |
|
BIG10 |
Penn State |
Ohio |
10 |
|
BIG10 |
Michigan |
Notre Dame |
7 |
|
BIG10 |
Nebraska |
UCLA |
6 |
|
BIG10 |
Iowa |
Iowa State |
3 |
|
BIG10 |
Purdue |
Notre Dame |
3 |
|
BIG10 |
Wisconsin |
Oregon State |
3 |
|
BIG10 |
Indiana |
Ball State |
2 |
|
BIG10 |
Iowa |
Central Michigan |
1 |
|
BIG10 |
Indiana |
Navy |
1 |
|
BIG10 |
Penn State |
Virginia |
1 |
|
BIG12 |
Oklahoma State |
Arizona |
21 |
|
BIG12 |
Oklahoma |
Notre Dame |
17 |
|
BIG12 |
Kansas |
Northern Illinois |
7 |
|
BIG12 |
Kansas |
Rice |
1 |
|
CUSA |
Tulane |
UL-Monroe |
53 |
|
CUSA |
SMU |
Texas A&M |
45 |
|
CUSA |
UAB |
South Carolina |
43 |
|
CUSA |
Tulane |
Mississippi |
39 |
|
CUSA |
East Carolina |
South Carolina |
38 |
|
CUSA |
Marshall |
West Virginia |
35 |
|
CUSA |
SMU |
Baylor |
35 |
|
CUSA |
Houston |
UCLA |
31 |
|
CUSA |
Southern Miss. |
Nebraska |
29 |
|
CUSA |
East Carolina |
Navy |
28 |
|
CUSA |
Tulane |
Louisiana |
28 |
|
CUSA |
Southern Miss. |
Boise State |
26 |
|
CUSA |
Southern Miss. |
Western Kentucky |
25 |
|
CUSA |
Rice |
UCLA |
25 |
|
CUSA |
Memphis |
Duke |
24 |
|
CUSA |
East Carolina |
North Carolina |
21 |
|
CUSA |
Rice |
Louisiana Tech |
19 |
|
CUSA |
Memphis |
Middle Tennessee |
18 |
|
CUSA |
Texas - El Paso |
Mississippi |
18 |
|
CUSA |
Houston |
Texas State |
17 |
|
CUSA |
Houston |
Texas State |
17 |
|
CUSA |
Houston |
Texas State |
17 |
|
CUSA |
Texas - El Paso |
Oklahoma |
17 |
|
CUSA |
Central Florida |
Ohio State |
15 |
|
CUSA |
Tulsa |
Iowa State |
15 |
|
CUSA |
UAB |
Ohio State |
14 |
|
CUSA |
Tulane |
Rutgers |
12 |
|
CUSA |
Texas - El Paso |
Wisconsin |
11 |
|
CUSA |
UAB |
Troy |
10 |
|
CUSA |
Marshall |
Purdue |
10 |
|
CUSA |
SMU |
Texas Christian |
8 |
|
CUSA |
Houston |
Louisiana Tech |
7 |
|
CUSA |
Memphis |
Arkansas State |
5 |
|
CUSA |
Central Florida |
Missouri |
5 |
|
CUSA |
Southern Miss. |
Louisville |
4 |
|
CUSA |
Tulsa |
Arkansas |
4 |
|
CUSA |
Memphis |
UT-Martin |
3 |
|
CUSA |
Marshall |
Ohio |
3 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
San Diego State |
35 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Temple |
31 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Navy |
Penn State |
27 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Wake Forest |
22 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Rutgers |
21 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Stony Brook |
20 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Brigham Young |
Oregon State |
18 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Kent State |
14 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Navy |
San Jose State |
12 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Navy |
Troy |
10 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Eastern Michigan |
10 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Ball State |
8 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Brigham Young |
San Jose State |
6 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Brigham Young |
Utah |
3 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Army |
Northern Illinois |
1 |
|
INDEPENDENT |
Brigham Young |
Boise State |
1 |
|
MAC |
Massachusetts |
Michigan |
50 |
|
MAC |
Miami-Ohio |
Ohio State |
46 |
|
MAC |
Akron |
Central Florida |
42 |
|
MAC |
Massachusetts |
Vanderbilt |
42 |
|
MAC |
Massachusetts |
Indiana |
39 |
|
MAC |
Miami-Ohio |
Cincinnati |
38 |
|
MAC |
Eastern Michigan |
Purdue |
38 |
|
MAC |
Bowling Green |
Virginia Tech |
37 |
|
MAC |
Massachusetts |
Connecticut |
37 |
|
MAC |
Central Michigan |
Michigan State |
34 |
|
MAC |
Kent State |
Kentucky |
33 |
|
MAC |
Miami-Ohio |
Boise State |
27 |
|
MAC |
Ball State |
Clemson |
25 |
|
MAC |
Buffalo |
Georgia |
22 |
|
MAC |
Akron |
Tennessee |
21 |
|
MAC |
Central Michigan |
Navy |
18 |
|
MAC |
Western Michigan |
Illinois |
17 |
|
MAC |
Eastern Michigan |
Michigan State |
16 |
|
MAC |
Buffalo |
Pittsburgh |
14 |
|
MAC |
Bowling Green |
Florida |
13 |
|
MAC |
Akron |
Massachusetts |
8 |
|
MAC |
Buffalo |
Connecticut |
7 |
|
MAC |
Toledo |
Arizona |
7 |
|
MAC |
Western Michigan |
Minnesota |
5 |
|
MAC |
Akron |
Florida Int'l |
3 |
|
MAC |
Northern Illinois |
Iowa |
1 |
|
MWC |
Hawai'i |
Brigham Young |
47 |
|
MWC |
New Mexico |
Texas |
45 |
|
MWC |
Hawai'i |
Southern Cal |
39 |
|
MWC |
New Mexico |
Texas Tech |
35 |
|
MWC |
UNLV |
Louisiana Tech |
27 |
|
MWC |
UNLV |
Utah State |
22 |
|
MWC |
Air Force |
Army |
20 |
|
MWC |
Colorado State |
San Jose State |
20 |
|
MWC |
Wyoming |
Texas |
20 |
|
MWC |
Fresno State |
Oregon |
17 |
|
MWC |
Colorado State |
Utah State |
12 |
|
MWC |
San Diego State |
Washington |
9 |
|
MWC |
UNLV |
Washington State |
8 |
|
MWC |
Air Force |
Navy |
7 |
|
MWC |
Air Force |
Michigan |
6 |
|
MWC |
Boise State |
Michigan State |
4 |
|
MWC |
San Diego State |
San Jose State |
4 |
|
MWC |
UNLV |
Minnesota |
3 |
|
MWC |
Wyoming |
Toledo |
3 |
|
MWC |
Wyoming |
Cal Poly |
2 |
|
MWC |
Wyoming |
Cal Poly |
2 |
|
MWC |
Nevada |
South Florida |
1 |
|
MWC |
Fresno State |
Tulsa |
1 |
|
PAC12 |
Colorado |
Fresno State |
55 |
|
PAC12 |
Washington |
LSU |
38 |
|
PAC12 |
Washington State |
Brigham Young |
24 |
|
PAC12 |
California |
Ohio State |
7 |
|
PAC12 |
California |
Nevada |
7 |
|
PAC12 |
Stanford |
Notre Dame |
7 |
|
PAC12 |
Utah |
Utah State |
7 |
|
PAC12 |
Colorado |
Colorado State |
5 |
|
PAC12 |
Arizona State |
Missouri |
4 |
|
SBC |
Middle Tennessee |
Mississippi St. |
42 |
|
SBC |
Louisiana |
Oklahoma State |
41 |
|
SBC |
Florida Atlantic |
Georgia |
36 |
|
SBC |
Western Kentucky |
Alabama |
35 |
|
SBC |
Florida Atlantic |
Alabama |
33 |
|
SBC |
Arkansas State |
Nebraska |
29 |
|
SBC |
North Texas |
LSU |
27 |
|
SBC |
South Alabama |
N. C. State |
24 |
|
SBC |
Arkansas State |
Oregon |
23 |
|
SBC |
North Texas |
Houston |
23 |
|
SBC |
Middle Tennessee |
Georgia Tech |
21 |
|
SBC |
Florida Int'l |
Duke |
20 |
|
SBC |
South Alabama |
Mississippi St. |
20 |
|
SBC |
North Texas |
Kansas State |
14 |
|
SBC |
Florida Int'l |
Central Florida |
13 |
|
SBC |
Florida Atlantic |
Navy |
7 |
|
SBC |
Florida Int'l |
Louisville |
7 |
|
SBC |
Louisiana |
Florida |
7 |
|
SBC |
Troy |
Tennessee |
7 |
|
SBC |
Troy |
Mississippi St. |
6 |
|
SBC |
UL-Monroe |
Baylor |
5 |
|
SBC |
Florida Atlantic |
South Alabama |
3 |
|
SBC |
Florida Atlantic |
South Alabama |
3 |
|
SBC |
UL-Monroe |
Auburn |
3 |
|
SBC |
South Alabama |
UT - San Antonio |
2 |
|
SEC |
Mississippi |
Texas |
35 |
|
SEC |
Kentucky |
Louisville |
18 |
|
SEC |
Vanderbilt |
Northwestern |
10 |
|
SEC |
Arkansas |
Rutgers |
9 |
|
SEC |
Auburn |
Clemson |
7 |
|
SEC |
Missouri |
Syracuse |
4 |
|
SEC |
Arkansas |
UL-Monroe |
3 |
|
SEC |
Kentucky |
Western Kentucky |
1 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
North Carolina |
66 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
LSU |
49 |
|
WAC |
Texas State |
Texas Tech |
48 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
Brigham Young |
39 |
|
WAC |
New Mexico State |
Auburn |
35 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
Texas State |
31 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
Texas State |
31 |
|
WAC |
New Mexico State |
Ohio |
27 |
|
WAC |
Texas State |
New Mexico |
21 |
|
WAC |
UT - San Antonio |
Rice |
20 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
E. Washington |
17 |
|
WAC |
New Mexico State |
Texas - El Paso |
13 |
|
WAC |
New Mexico State |
New Mexico |
13 |
|
WAC |
Texas State |
Nevada |
13 |
|
WAC |
Texas State |
Navy |
11 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
Bowling Green |
8 |
|
WAC |
Idaho |
Wyoming |
3 |
|
WAC |
Utah State |
Brigham Young |
3 |
|
WAC |
San Jose State |
Stanford |
3 |
|
WAC |
Louisiana Tech |
Texas A&M |
2 |
|
WAC |
Utah State |
Wisconsin |
2 |
And to call out our ACC brethren,
|
Conference |
Lost |
Winner |
By |
|
ACC |
Boston College |
Notre Dame |
15 |
|
ACC |
Boston College |
Northwestern |
9 |
|
ACC |
Boston College |
Army |
3 |
|
ACC |
Duke |
Stanford |
37 |
|
ACC |
Georgia Tech |
Brigham Young |
24 |
|
ACC |
Georgia Tech |
Middle Tennessee |
21 |
|
ACC |
Maryland |
West Virginia |
10 |
|
ACC |
Maryland |
Connecticut |
3 |
|
ACC |
Miami-Florida |
Kansas State |
39 |
|
ACC |
Miami-Florida |
Notre Dame |
38 |
|
ACC |
N. C. State |
Tennessee |
14 |
|
ACC |
North Carolina |
Louisville |
5 |
|
ACC |
Virginia |
Texas Christian |
20 |
|
ACC |
Virginia |
Louisiana Tech |
6 |
|
ACC |
Virginia Tech |
Pittsburgh |
18 |
|
ACC |
Virginia Tech |
Cincinnati |
3 |
|
ACC |
Wake Forest |
Notre Dame |
38 |
BC has 3, GT has 2, Maryland has 2 (buh-bye), Miami of Florida has 2, Virginia has 2, VT has 2. Frustrating.
What are your thoughts on this? Should looking at how the other conferences schedule out of conference affect how we schedule? If so, based off this data, how should we schedule differently? I realize this didn't look at the timing of scheduling these out of conference games, but what role do you surmise that plays (i.e, early in season to keep more teams "in it" or later so you get the losses out of the way and can define frontrunners early)?
I hope all of you enjoyed this because I spent the better part of today programming in Matlab to cull all of this data together. I have some future articles planned based off this work so any feedback is appreciated.
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