Noles News 11.05.12

Joel Auerbach

Get caught up on all that went on over the weekend.

FSU is 10th in the BCS standings, behind two 2-loss SEC teams in LSU and South Carolina. That, despite being ranked 6th in two of the three components (Harris Poll, USA Today Coaches Poll). How? Computers. We discussed this last week and I pointed out that the designers of some of the computer rankings openly acknowledge that the BCS won't let them use their more accurate models. Not that this really matters, because it's pretty much Orange Bowl or bust. I wrote about this last week in Vegas v. BCS computers: The Florida State debate - Tomahawk Nation "Florida State fans are up in arms over the team's No. 9 BCS ranking. What does Vegas think of the Seminoles? Plus, why are the creators of the computers angry that the BCS won't use their most accurate rating sets."

College football betting: Week 11 opening lines -
At what number did the college football betting lines open? We have you covered on all of the big games.

FSU opened as a 12-point favorite and is now a 14-point favorite. Interesting. That is the largest underdog VT has been at home since 2001 to Miami.

I found this really interesting. From Brian Fremeau, the components of FSU's wins and losses.

The listing for "Final" represents the score at the end of the game. The column labeled "NG Final" represents the score at the conclusion of the non-garbage possessions for the given game. The total offensive, defensive, special teams, and expected values earned through the non-garbage possessions of the given game add up to the non-garbage scoring margin of the game. Field position value and turnover value earned are also provided.

Team Wk Opponent Final NG Final Off Def ST Ex FP TO
Florida State 3 Wake Forest W 52-0 W 38-0 12.9 16.1 9.0 0.0 13.7 -3.4
Florida State 4 Clemson W 49-37 W 49-31 32.5 -7.8 -6.8 0.0 3.2 -3.7
Florida State 5 South Florida W 30-17 W 30-17 7.5 7.9 -2.4 0.0 3.3 8.2
Florida State 6 North Carolina State L 16-17 L 16-17 -7.1 0.4 3.8 1.9 6.6 -0.8
Florida State 7 Boston College W 51-7 W 41-7 23.2 5.4 3.5 1.9 1.9 -0.8
Florida State 8 Miami W 33-20 W 33-13 3.7 13.8 0.6 1.9 2.9 1.3
Florida State 9 Duke W 48-7 W 45-7 21.2 6.3 10.4 0.0 5.6 -8.0
Total 94.0 42.1 18.2 5.7 37.3 -7.3

Interesting that FSU is outscoring D-1 opponents 252-92 in competitive time and 27-13 in garbage time.

FSU, Oklahoma State discussing 2014 game in Cowboys Stadium -
Very smart here. The playoff will necessitate tougher scheduling.

No good thing ever dies | FSView | Good article by Bures. ND and Oregon and K-State and Alabama winning this weekend have pretty much ended FSU's title chances.

This is an excellent report by Barry Jackson on the Miami situation. Here are the basics

- The ACC told Miami that it cannot wait until after the ACCCG to impose a bowl ban. The Hurricanes must decide before. this is obviously to prevent a (very) unlikely ACC Champ declining a BCS bowl.

Is Miami likely to make the ACC title game? They're solidly in it, and would be a three-touchdown underdog against Florida State or a ~15-point underdog against Clemson. Duke is also still in it, and I think VT might be as well, though that seems doubtful given the tie breakers. Miami must play at Virginia this week and then finishes its ACC season at Duke.

- Miami should hear about its penalties sometime in the spring or summer.

College football Top 25 scores: Alabama lives on -
The world gets to enjoy still more undefeated Alabama football, Oregon shows things to Monte Kiffin that haven't existed since 1965 or earlier, and Bill Snyder slaps your wagon back together with a little persimmon and sawdust.

Awesome video here. Catch up on everything from the weekend.

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