BCS Teams with more wins than FSU over the last two seasons:
24 LSU
24 Oregon
23 Oklahoma State
23 Stanford
22 Alabama
22 Auburn
22 Oklahoma
22 Michigan State
22 Virginia Tech
22 Wisconsin
21 Arkansas
20 South Carolina
Teams with wins equal to FSU over the last two seasons (19):
Nebraska
West Virginia
BCS Teams with fewer wins than FSU: 51
Why did I post this? Perspective. Florida State is not where its fans want it to be, but it doesn't seem that far off, either. And it's certainly light years ahead of the mess that was the four-year stretch of '06-'09 (30 total wins in four years and an embarrassing NCAA scandal).
*As you probably know, I don't like measures like this because of the inherently high variance and the lack of accounting for opponent quality. This is just a quick and dirty comparison.
3 months ago
Bud Elliott
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very positive trend
Would love to see adjusted schedule rankings/SOS on these teams as well, especially VT and their ridiculously easy schedule last year. Either way, it shows a positive direction for the program and the need to buy wins with smart scheduling.
"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." - GEN George S. Patton
by JaxNole on Feb 15, 2012 8:15 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Great Perspective Bud
2011 Team had it’s share of disappointments but the FSU football program continued to show very positive signs that the future is very bright…and with a little injury luck that will show up on the field in 2012!
by FSUALLTHEDAMNTIME! on Feb 15, 2012 8:16 AM EST reply actions
Yes great perspective.
No doubt if we didn’t have all the injuries it would have been better. Yes it hurts just a little we lost 4 games, but considering the injuries I can live with it.
Off topic for a second but this bothers me……listening to local radio here in Clemson and they are talking smack about Jumbo. Saying that he and the brass at NC are lobbying for some type of loop hole that will make Clemson play all road ACC games this year. Being that they are the ACC Champs and all. I know the schedule will not come out anytime soon but I figured it would because we are trying to replace the WVa game.
by NOLEisticscience on Feb 15, 2012 8:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Considering the teams that have as many or more wins.
I would say we are in good company. Better company than a few years ago.
by NOLEisticscience on Feb 15, 2012 8:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
If they are seriously tossing that stuff around
they certainly are.
I accept Process...as long as it yields immediate beneficial results.
Well sure.
Recent years in the ACC shows how much the conference dances to FSU’s and Jimbo’s tune.
…..the hell?
If all sports fandom is a form of emotional gambling, football is poker and hockey is Russian roulette.
That's bad
But buying the idea that we’re pushing to get all away games for Clemson, that’s just stupid on another level.
I like it quick and dirty.
TWSS
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
Positive Perspective
Exactly the trend some of the "fire-trigger-happy-fans " may need to see to gain an understanding of the improvements made by CJF’s coaching team. We are not in bad company there. I just wish I could hibernate until mid-August and wake up to the promise of a championship 2012 season.
by FullTimeNole on Feb 15, 2012 8:39 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I believe FSU would look much weaker againt ranked teams
Still, we have improved greatly and i believe this is part of the process
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
I’m not so sure about that. FSU is 3-5 against teams that were either ranked at the time of game or at the end of the year.
3-5...
so out of 8 teams we have won 3. Thats our weakness right now. Granted some bad injury luck hit us with a few of these games, its still a valid point due to it being our single flaw
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
But what does 3-5 mean without context of what of the others have done against ranked teams? Not much.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 15, 2012 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
The other half of my statement didnt make it for some reason
I believe that our game play vs ranked teams is our only weakness. sure that if you look at ALA over the last three years (due to there 2 BCSNCG W’s) they are far better than 3-5. Granted the rest of the 12 teams noted may not have had as well as ALA but im sure that many are better than 3-5.
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think “many” could be better than 3-5, simply because the totals must even out.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 15, 2012 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
many may to to big...
lets just go with Championship “type teams”
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Guess what im trying to say is
if the Noles are going to win titles, we have to have a better record against ranked teams.
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
And against unranked, as well. 3 losses to teams that were neither ranked at the time nor finished ranked: UNC ’10, Wake ’11, UVA ’11.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 15, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
Yes
That would be nice as well. It would also contribute to my success of less alcohol consumption.
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Those are more concerning to me. A ~.500 record against the top 25 does not concern me. Those games are often a coin flip or close to it.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 15, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
We would be 3-3 or better....
If we scheduled our non-conference like everyone else on that list with the exception of LSU..
Can't control conference but.
How many of those 12 stupidly scheduled 2-3 non-conference marquee games a year?
South Carolina-
2011 East Carolina, Navy, Citadel, Clem$$$$on,
2010 Clem$$$$on, Southern Miss, Furman, Troy
Alabama-
2011 Kent State, North Texas, Georgia Southern, Penn State,
2010 Penn State, Duke, San Hose State, Georgia State
Lsu-
2011 Oregon, Northwestern State, West Virginia, Western Kentucky,
2010 West Virginia, North Carolina, McNeese State, Lou-Monroe
Auburn-
2011 Utah State, Samford, FAU, Clem$$$$on
2010 Clem$$$$on, Ark State, Lou-Monroe, Chatanooooga
Arkansas-
2011 Missouri State, New Mexico, Troy, Texas AM
2010 Texas AM, Tennessee Tech, Lou-Monroe, UTEP
Oregon-
2011 LSU, Nevada, Missouri State,
2010 Tennessee, New Mexico, Portland State
Stanford-
2011 San Hose St, Duke, Notre Dame
2010 Sacramento State, Wake, Notre Dame
Michigan State-
2011 Youngstown St, FAU, Notre Dame, Central Mich
2010 Western Mich, FAU, Notre Dame, Northern Colorado
Wisconsin-
2011 UNLV, Oregon St, Northern Ill, South Dakota,
2010 UNLV, San Hose State, Arizona State, Austin Peay
Oklahoma-
2011 Tulsa, FSU, Ball State
2010 Utah State, FSU, Air Force, Cincinnati
Oklahoma State-
2011 Lou-Laff, Tulsa, Arizona
2010 Wash State, Troy, Tulsa, Lou-Laff
Virginia Tech-
2011 App State, East Carolina, Ark State, Marshall
2010 Boise State, James Madison, East Carolina, Central Michigian
On the border of the TOP 12(I Wonder why?)
FSU-
2011 Lou-Monroe, Charlston Southern, Oklahoma, Florida
2010 Samford, Oklahoma, BYU, Florida
So we played 5 non-conference marquee games in the last 2 years. More than even the Mad Hatter and 3 more than what Alabama(current standard of football excellence) played. And some of the big time non-conference games(um Wisconsin’s) for these 12 teams are not even as tough as our weakest non-conference opponent out of 5, common!
I say we even up the playing field and see how Fisher performs.
I agree with leveling the playing field
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Just think though
If we beat better teams more often do we have missteps like the games listed above? I think not
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Well, based on what Bud said, if you have a 50/50 shot to beat the better teams
Then 50% of the time you might avoid the missteps like you are talking about and 50% of the time it won’t matter.
Am I right?
Seems like playing harder competition is more of a personal vendetta than effective scheduling.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
Im not saying that we should have more of those games
Just that when we are faced with tougher comp we should win, and in turn will help carry momentum into the “less” tough teams
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Just a side note, but I did not mean "your" personal vendetta
I was trying to speak in a broad generality.
Luckily by your response, I don’t think you took it like that anyway, just trying to make sure.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
i take nothing personal
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Good to hear
Because I’ve always wanted to tell you what an ignorant, narrow minded, buffon you are. I’ll send you an email of what I think of your mother and she’s even more of a low life scum sucking pig than you. I’d send one to you addressing what I think of your father but no one has a clue who he is…including your mother.
Funny you should say that
I sent something in the mail a few days ago stating much the same of you. :)
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 16, 2012 6:56 AM EST up reply actions
2-0 in Bowl games
Those opponents were ranked.
"He who gets the best players usually wins." ~Bobby Bowden
"They could not capture me except under a white flag. They cannot hold me except with a chain." Seminole Chief Osceola, 1838
No they weren’t. Though to your point, this highlights the arbitrary nature of the top “25”. It should be expanded to the top 30 because we no have 120 college D1 teams, and not 100, like we did when the top 25 represented the true top 25% of college teams. Were USCe and Notre Dame among the best 25 teams? Absolutely. But they weren’t ranked there because teams playing awful schedules stole their spots and they were each coming off a loss.
Ah i see now.
Thanks for the clarification, Bud.
"He who gets the best players usually wins." ~Bobby Bowden
"They could not capture me except under a white flag. They cannot hold me except with a chain." Seminole Chief Osceola, 1838
South Carolina was ranked when we played them, I thought?
I’m almost positive that USCe was around 18 at the tiime we played them, weren’t they?
It's what we learn after we know it all that counts. John Wooden
Pretty sure they dropped out because Auburn put 50 on him.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 15, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Hmm. Nolefan.org shows different. Strange.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 15, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
The USCe rivals site says they were 18 going into the game
Assume that was AP poll?
It's what we learn after we know it all that counts. John Wooden
Yeah
The thought that South Carolina would be ranked is kind of tough for me to reconcile, as well.
They didn’t when their first bowl game until the mid 90s. Clemson had a bumper sticker that said “Honk if you’ve won a bowl game.”
USCe responded with, “Honk, if you’re not on probation.”
Furman, being the brains of the state, bumper sticker says “Furman, A Rose Between Two Thorns!”
It's what we learn after we know it all that counts. John Wooden
by Sobering on Feb 15, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec this man.
I was thinking the same thing – in a very devious and vindictive way. ;)
GO NOLES!
FEAR THE SPEAR!
>>>--------,,,-----/>
There are only 12 teams total with more wins than FSU over a 2 year period?
Fire Trickett?
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
Plus 3-0 VS SEC
Since they seem to be a major measuring stick in these days.
"He who gets the best players usually wins." ~Bobby Bowden
"They could not capture me except under a white flag. They cannot hold me except with a chain." Seminole Chief Osceola, 1838
Amazing SC is there given the LONG history of the Cocks.
I believe they still hold an overall losing record since their inception, no?
GO NOLES!
FEAR THE SPEAR!
>>>--------,,,-----/>
Thanks. 'Tsgood.
But I’m afraid that the same guys who argue that scoreboard and W-L override weighted metrics may reject this as excuse making.
There is no more powerful (though incorrect) argument than a circular argument.
I accept Process...as long as it yields immediate beneficial results.
Don't be
6 wins against:
Western Michigan
Northern Colorado
Florida Atlantic x2
Younstown State
Central Michigan
Plus 3 against
Minnesota x2
Indiana
Wins without non-BCS Teams
Do you have any stats/insight as to what total wins would look like for FSU and the other schools against non-BCS teams?
Oh, just wins against teams from BCS conferences? I’d be very interested in seeing that, but I do not have it.
Also would have to factor in: do you count Notre Dame? They have the BCS exemption, so I count them as a BCS team, but some would not.
Think you should
They play mostly BCS teams (not including bowls):
2011: 10 BCS conference teams
2010: 7 BCS conference teams
2009: 9 BCS conference teams
2008: 10 BCS conference teams
FSU wins against BCS schools
2011: 7 (6 without bowl)
2010: 8 (7 without bowl)
2009: 5 (4 without bowl)
2008: 6 (5 without bowl)
13 in the last 2 years, sans bowl games
BCS vs FBS
Boise state is not in the BCS? but they have wins over BCS teams.
No, they are not in a BCS conference. Most of their wins come against teams from the bottom 25% of college football.
Boise State, including bowls
2011: 3 BCS conference teams (2 wins)
2010: 2 BCS conference teams (2 wins)
2009: 1 BCS conference team (1 win, also played TCU)
2008: 1 BCS conference team (1 win, also played TCU)
by paperjames on Feb 15, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
ANYONE, ANYWHERE, ANY TIME!
*as long as there is a return game
>>>─────;;─►
by NorFla_Nole on Feb 15, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
But no 2 for 1's either
and they like to get paid like the worst cupcake.
F the Deacs - Notre Dame, Rutgers and UConn to the ACC
What, it's not perfectly reasonable
to expect a home game at your 30,000 seat stadium after playing in front of 80,000+ elsewhere?
If all sports fandom is a form of emotional gambling, football is poker and hockey is Russian roulette.
I think it's correctly Any one...
Meaning, they’ve established to me that they’ll play one decent opponent per year.
And by established, I guess I’m convinced by the 4 year run they’ve put together, though maybe I shouldn’t be.
what 4 year run
7 BCS teams in 4 years? We play that many in our conference schedule each year alone and add in 1 or 2 others.
They have had to “get up” for about 2 games a year. While scrimmaging against teams we need to pay like a mill to be our cupcake once a year that they play weekly
A Seminole warrior killed in battle is a legend remembered. A Gator lost in battle becomes a pair of boots and a belt.
twitter of random stuff and tons of confessing FSU love Follow @caine115
F THE ACC ..|.. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Oh, I just meant...
That they scheduled ONE decent opponent in each of the past 4 years.
Before that, they didn’t schedule even one decent opponent with regularity.
the joke was “any ONE”, vs “anyone”… if you get my drift….
You’re preaching to the choir about their schedule. I’ve often wanted to put together a chart of the 10 winningest programs of the past 5 years— Boise would be in there of course— and chart the number of bowl teams played in the regular season, number of top 25 teams played in the regular season, and number of bottom 50 teams played. I think it would be a powerful demonstration of just how bad their schedule is.
We only play one team with more wins than us in 2012
Virginia Tech, that is amazing to me.
Fixed it for you
Probably Will play beat them twice.
Proud author of Tomahawknation's most rec'd post ever
by newdynastynole on Feb 15, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Same 15 teams against just BCS AQ competition:
Stanford: 21-3
LSU: 20-3
Oregon: 20-3
OKST: 18-3
OU: 18-5
Bama: 17-4
VT: 16-4
Wisc: 16-4
Auburn: 16-5
MSU: 16-5
Arky: 15-5
FSU: 15-8
SCAR: 14-7
WVU: 13-7
Neb: 13-8
FSU, LSU and Oregon have played the most (23) on this list.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Feb 15, 2012 10:04 AM EST reply actions
I meant, do the totals include Notre Dame
by Bud Elliott on Feb 15, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Gonna show these numbers to the Clemson folk up here.
So they will STFU
by NOLEisticscience on Feb 15, 2012 11:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I doubt they will, even then
But good luck to you!
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
Oops, Stanford with 24 is the most.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Feb 15, 2012 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
As always
you come through with the #’s! Thanks
i still hntdeer and liv4noles.
by NOLEcasterWX on Feb 15, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree
The difference between 19 an 24 wins is light years. Great teams don’t lose to UVA and Wake, or even UNC and NCST. It takes something special to get over that hump. I sure hope this recruiting class bring it.
Tough to get past the injuries of last year. I think what will “bring it” is the health of the extremely talented guys already on the roster and their development over the course of another year.
>>---l>
i think our guys 'brought it' last year for the most part
for a team with a busted leg, they never quit & had some great comebacks – that kind of fight in a healthy, more mature/deep team will have success
You tell em I'm coming, and Hell's comin with me!!!!
by DownByTheRiverWalkinOnWater on Feb 15, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
When viewing these data in a vacuum,
things look very good for Jimbo. The data lose some of its force, however, b/c FSU plays in the ACC (2nd weakest BCS conference opponents) and it’s simply a fact that we have lost games that we were favored to win by Vegas.
An interesting and perhaps more meaningful analysis would be to look at total games won/ in contrast to total games favored to win. For FSU there may be no difference because although we lost to Wake, Virginia (2011) and UNC (2010) I believe we were dogs against OU twice, SCAR (2010) & Clemson (2010).
Championship!
To me, somehow that only seems to explain how well the team stays focused. Lose to teams you aren’t supposed to makes it look like they came out of the gate thinking it was a win. Perhaps that is on the coaches. Beating teams you aren’t supposed to beat? Again, can lay some praise on the coaches for getting the kids pumped up.
I’d like to see the same win/loss report with a separate column for each the combined record of teams won against and combined record of teams lost to. In other words, do you have a winning record against winnings teams or losing teams. Of course, it also doesn’t matter much because of those teams, what was the combined records of teams they won and lost to. Seems endless…
I don’t see the ACC as the second weakest BCS conference. I think it’s right there with the Pac 12 and the Big Ten over the last two seasons.
2011 was atrocious.
2009 ACCwas maybe… maybe, as good as the SEC. There as been a severe decline in the last two years.
3-year F/+ averages by conference
has ACC at #4, ahead of BE and P12. Not a flawless method to evaluate, but interesting.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Feb 15, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
And by this method, no,
NOBODY is close to SEC. Not by 3-year avg or in any individual year.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Feb 15, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
When I mentioned 2009, I was just going off of memory.
But just looked back and see that the ACC and SEC both had the same number of teams in the top 15 (3 teams each) same number teams in the top 30 (6 teams each). Of course, they had the #1 and #2 teams, and the ACC’s bottom quartile was a lot worse than the SEC’s, so yea you are right. But It’s clear that given the relative equality of the top half of the conference, that the SEC wasn’t in a different universe as the ACC like their were this past year.
that is what I thought
btw, P12 has only been P12 for 1 year… and they’re on a steady upward trend now and are definitely > ACC.
Championship!
Yes, I know.
I evaluated each conference by actual members in each year. Don’t have #’s in front of me, but P12 was near the bottom (IIRC) in 2011.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Feb 15, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
There really is not much difference between the BCS conferences
Sure there is a difference at the top where some are more top heavy then others but the “average” team across the BCS is roughly the same around the 40 to 45 ranked team mark. The real drop off is from BCS to non BCS. The MWC average team is around the 65th ranked team and this is mainly because Boise and TCU pull the average way up.
F the Deacs - Notre Dame, Rutgers and UConn to the ACC
That's why using whole number rankings is dumb.
Using efficiency ratings eliminates the inherent weakness of applying a linear, discrete scale to a continuous, non-linear model. SEC has been much better than everyone else. The next three, quite a bit better than bottom two. Non-AQs are plain awful.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Feb 15, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
It might be interesting to look at
Each conf’s percentage of losses to non-BCS teams over a 3-year period. Instead of the quality of wins, the number of poor quality losses. It’s still a whole number thing, but looking at how often conf teams lose the games they really shouldn’t would be interesting. (I also suspect the ACC would be near the bottom if confs were looked at in this way.)
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