One Guy's 2012-2013 FSU Football Roster & Recruiting Analysis

Hi. In this first post on TN, I've tried to inter-relate several roster- and recruiting-related topics as part of a mental exercise on how Fisher might project his three-year team-building effort into a 6-to-8 year 'program-of-dominance,' assuming that were that truly possible in the BCS/SEC/Disney-centric era college football.

I'm seeking several types of input: A) Factual corrections to what I'm posting, particularly in the area of known roster circumstances (already-enacted position changes I've missed, graduating class/eligibility year corrections, red-shirt usage, et cetera, of which I'm unaware); 2) Contrary analysis and opinions; D) Anything else that this stream of topics might evoke.

I hope this meets local standards, makes sense, and satisfies anyone who enjoys this kind of projection and analysis.

A) Satisfying 2012 Scholarship Limits:

Annual NCAA Limit: 85

Current count:

RS-Sr (9): Manuel, Smiley, McCloud, McCray, Dawkins, Stevens, Vi-Williams, Moody, Dellenbach
Tr-Sr (9): Thompson, Pryor, Ro-Smith, Fahrenrug, Carradine, McDaniel, Jenkins, Reid, Hopkins

RS-Jr (13): Secord, Haulstead, Gehres, Glauser, Watson, Orelus, Stork, Faircloth, McAllister, Hicks, Rhodes, Bright, Demps
Tr-Jr (10): Abram, Dent, Haggins, Shaw, Werner, Telv-Smith, Luc, Ch-Jones, Joyner, Brooks

RS-So (7): Trickett, Ch-Green, Tye, Foose, Erving, Cummings, Terrell
Tr-So (10): Freeman, Wilder, Ra-Greene, O'Leary, Tr-Jackson, Barron, Matias, Hart, Jernigan, Ka-Williams

Either Tr-So or RS-Fr [not sure if they played in 2011] (7): Lovelady, Pettis, Terr-Smith, Waisome, Ke-Smith, Brutus, Ty-Hunter

Known RS-Fr (7): Coker, Beverly, Benjamin, Ru-Carter, Newberry, Lawrence-Stample, De-Mitchell
Tr-Fr-EE (2): Pender, Beatty
Tr-Fr-August (13): Winston, MaGuire, Bracy, Kourzidis, Ma-Edwards, Goldman, Shanks, Casher, Northrup, Eligwe, Darby, Blake, PJ-Williams

Gray Shirt (Jan 2013 enroll): Aguayo

Assuming Onwukaife (not listed above) has already received his oft-discussed medical DQ: 9 + 9 + 13 + 10 + 7 + 10 + 7 + 7 + 2 + 13 = 87

If correct, we need to shed 2 scholarships for 2012...so what did I get wrong?

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2) Which two scholarships could be discontinued prior to June Freshman/JuCo enrollment? (obviously there could be more than two...)

Possibles could include:

McCray: Pre-2011 history of medical issues, compounded by leaving the OU & UM games with additional or aggravated knee injury.

Thompson: Two back injuries, said to be unrelated, but uncannily in the same area of the body (the back, which just sounds serious).

McDaniel: Dislocated ankle in 2011 - Will it heal? Will McDaniel be able to crack the depth chart in 2012, if healed?

Secord: Passed on depth-chart by Trickett while otherwise healthy. Coker, Winston, MaGuire have arrived. Will Secord seek FBS playing time elsewhere?

Haulstead: Will medical staff allow Haulstead to practice/play ever again, given the seriousness of his pre-season 2011 concussions?

Gehres: RS-Jr with no playing time to-date. Is his knee healed? Can he achieve playing time?

Orelus: How serious was his concussion? Can he return to the trenches?

Faircloth: Can he return to the lineup after a second unrelated injury?

McAllister: Not atop the extensive DT depth chart, as recent and arriving freshmen gain playing time.

Bright: Does he have sufficient size to survive FBS football? Is special teams work sufficient to retain him on scholarship?

Demps: Low on the depth chart, a RS-Jr having had very little playing time to-date.

Cummings: Seemingly lost in the extensive DT depth chart. Got some playing time in 2011, but will newly eligible RS-Fr & Tr-Fr take his spot?

Terrell: RS-So with little playing time at linebacker. Have two years of prep put him in position to make second-strong on the roster?

Who do you anticipate?

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D) What current players reasonably figure to depart for the 2013 NFL draft before their eligibility expires?

DE Bjeorn Werner?
LB Christian Jones?
CB Xavier Rhodes?
S Lamarcus Joyner?

Others?

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Green) What pre-spring roster moves could help the team & player(s) in 2012? Possibilities include:

Nick Moody and Telvin Smith to WLB, with Jeff Luc to MLB: Why?
> Nigel Bradham has moved on to the NFL, so WLB must be filled.

> While Moody is a hard hitter, especially at the line-of-srimmage, he lacks coverage ability other safeties have shown. With an off-season to bulk-up, while learning the WLB position, perhaps Moody could contribute more by being closer to the LoS. Theoretically, Moody could show NFL scouts something they might consider burning a late-round draft pick to obtain.

> Telvin Smith is a super-quick sure-tackler, and has probably earned the starting role. However the coaches could consider limiting his snaps (by spelling Smith with Moody) until Smith has accumulated sufficient bulk to withstand repetitive contact.

> Both Vince Williams and Jeff Luc are much larger, and could theoretically be better-statured to take the bruising dished-out in the middle. Luc would theoretically spell Williams while gaining experience sufficient to start in 2013.


Gerald Demps and Tyler Hunter to back-up Karlos Williams at the larger safety position: Why?
> Joyner (2012) & Brooks (2012 & 2013) have the other safety position secured. This year, Stoops & staff should be trying to determine who will back-up Brooks in 2013, after Joyner goes early to the NFL.

> Since I'm recommending that Moody move to LB, and since I'm suggesting that Bright is too small/slow to play safety, we're going to need someone else at the position besides Karlos (assuming Karlos wins the job). This would provide Demps an opportunity for playing time, pushed by Hunter, who internet rumor says carries a mean streak with his athleticism.

> Some have speculated that Karlos Williams' combination of speed and size is best-suited for offense, perhaps at the RB or WR position. This would certainly help tailback depth, especially if Wilder moves to LB (discussed below). However, if this happens, along with moving Moody to LB (discussed above) Stoops will likely start Brooks and Joyner at the two safety positions, causing the need for two reliable back-ups (from the large group of underclass CBs Stoops has amassed in the last two recruiting classes) for Joyner (in 2012, to become starters in 2013) to begin beeing groomed this spring.

> Some have mentioned Keelin Smith or Colin Blake to safety. While this could happen, I'm wondering whether Stoops prefers to keep the taller/longer DBs at the Boundary CB position.

> Similarly, I've not seen where Waisome or Brutus are being considered for safety, given their smaller stature.

> Finally, while I don't think Darby projects as a larger safety, I'm wondering if Darby's speed would make him an asset at the Joyner/Brooks safety position (similar to how Joyner was moved in Spring 2011), if CB doesn't suit him.

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November) What pre-spring roster moves could help the team & player(s) for 2013?

Red-Shirt Jaccobbi McDaniel: Why?
> If he is not completely healed and returned to pre-injury physical condition, McDaniel will not be able to compete at his potential in his last year of eligibility, thereby losing-out on thousands, if not millions in the NFL, or possibly MLB.

> It would be far better for the team if McDaniel provided 100% useful play and leadership in 2013, versus providing 50%-75% effort and little leadership in 2012. Jaccobbi was one of the first guys to trust that Jimbo would deliver FSU out of its decade of misery, and Jimbo has delivered, so perhaps Jimbo owes Jaccobbi this advice and roster space.

> While he may not be a Erving, Jernigan, or Goldman-type behemoth, McDaniel has shown ability to penetrate and a nice motor when healthy and focused. I still wonder how he might excel when paired with a DT who commands a double team.


James Wilder to SLB: Why?
> No doubt that Wilder is a tough runner. The kid loves contact. However, does Wilder have the second-gear burst the great backs have? Does he run low enough (pad-level)? Does Wilder have the vision to avoid running into blockers or elude would-be tacklers in lieu of his preferred approach (contact)?

> If Wilder is not going to be a co-starter with Freeman and/or Thompson (or if he is passed by Pender) in 2012, and assuming he could pick-up the mental aspects of college LB in spring 2012, perhaps Wilder could attain second-string on the SLB depth chart in 2012, promoting to starter in 2013 (and possibly 2014, if he doesn't go professional early). One wonders whether this could earn Wilder more $ in the NFL, in the long-run.

> Christian Jones has to be one of the favorites to enter the NFL early. This will create a huge hole at strong linebacker (Harvey-Clemmons would have really filled a need here). If Wilder is truly 5-star talent, he would not have to sit below anyone on a depth chart with the potential opportunity at SLB in 2013.

> If Terrell, Terrance Smith, nor Eligwe are sufficiently elite for this position, could Wilder, with his ball skills, athleticism, and high school LB experience, be a solution here? Can Wilder cover TEs and RBs in pass-coverage?


Darious Cummings and Demonte McAllister to DE (likely strongside): Why?
> Both seem seriously challenged in the DT depth chart. Haggins will have six at each DT position (five each if McCray and McDaniel are unable to play) in 2012, and four each in 2013, with Jernigan & Erving having already showed star potential, combined with Lawrence-Stample, Mitchell, Shanks, & Goldman eligible to play in 2012 & 2013.

> Cummings and McAllister both entered FSU as DEs and were moved to DT. They both have at least high-school experience at this position, and the DE/DT positions are not so radically different as other potential position moves (like moving them to OL, FB, or Punter). According to (albeit notably inaccurate ) internet rosters, they are also the lightest (weight) DTs, perhaps giving them the best chances of all DTs on the roster to remove DT weight in order to slim down to DE weight and speed.

> After 2012, FSU will lose Carradine, Jenkins, & Stevens to expired eligibility, could lose Werner as an early-round NFL draft pick, and could lose Newberry to the offense (see below). This would leave FSU with 3 scholarship DEs: 2013 RS-Sr Dan Hicks, 2013 Tr-So Mario Edwards, and 2013 So/Fr Chris Casher. If this happened, FSU would have to hit the jackpot with 1-2 Clowney-type high-school DE signings and/or 1-2 Carradine-type JuCo DE signing in order for FSU's 2013 DEs to avoid being a thin liability to an otherwise still-stacked 2013 defense. (This is where Dante the Liar's antics really hurt FSU - Leonard Williams' LOI could have saved FSU from at least part of this consideration.)

> Theoretically, McAllister & Cummings could contribute at DE in 2012, with a possibility of earning significant playing/starting time for 2013 (and 2014 for Cummings).

> Reducing to 6 DTs for 2013 would enable FSU to more effectively/attractively recruit top-tier DTs in the 2013 recruiting cycle, relieving the current perception of logjam, and continuing Coach Haggins' NFL pipeline.

> A critical concern in this idea would be: Could McAllister and/or Cummings lose the required weight, regain the required speed, and display the type of range, discipline, and key-recognition to transition from DT to DE?


Dan Hicks from DE to TE: Why NOT?
> Some have speculated that Hicks should move from DE to TE. Since we have three TEs, and we are biased toward youth at this position, I'm less sure that Hicks could make a greater impact at this role verus his current role as a DE, especially since a single TE is on the field during most offensive plays (we have 3 TE in 2012 - should be enough, right?). In contrast, we nearly always have two DEs on the field during our defensive plays, and with our skinny depth at DE for 2013 (likely 3 DEs for 2 positions), we're going to all the depth we can find at this position in 2013.

> Unlike with the proposed Newberry move below, whose speculated transition to OT would involve two years of training before possibly starting for two more (in a position of need, by that juncture), Hicks move to TE would not necessarily fill a future need (by 2013, FSU could have four TEs, two of them juniors), and might only marginally help in 2012. The 2013 need is at DE.

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Figure 16.2) What pre-spring roster moves could help the team & player for 2014?

Giorgio Newberry to Left-OT:
> With Zebrie Sanders' and Andrew Datko's departures, Rick Trickett signed Glauser from Junior College to compete for the blind-side position on FSU's offensive line. Glauser's eligibility will expire after the 2013 season.

> Beyond Glauser (who is still in his first few weeks of preparation for this competition), it is unclear whether FSU has anyone on the 2012 roster who will be game-ready to play the blind-side OT position by 2014.

> FSU missed on Andrus Peat in the 2012 recruiting cycle.

> Therefore, FSU could be starting a Tr-So or RS-Fr from the 2013 recruiting cycle (i.e.: a player with only 1 year in the strength program) in 2014 to protect Coker/Winston/MaGuire's blind side unless a current player, or a 2013/2014 JuCo recruit, showed promise at the position.

> Newberry played OT in high school, and won his share of battles with Clowney in the 2011 UA game. He would be a RS-Jr for the 2014 season, giving him two years to play the position in an effort to reach one of the NFL's higher-paying roles, after two years of practice experience with the position (four years at OT total, 2012-2015), behind Glauser.

> FSU could exercise its aforementioned alternatives (McAllister & Cummings) to backfill Newberry's current DE depth-chart-station until 2013 & 2014 arrive to bolster depth.

> Could Fisher & Trickett be silently employing a strategy of over-recruiting DLs to assist OL recruitment? Other schools (Mack Brown at Texas) have done this in the past. Some have suggested that identifying/signing sub-elite DLs from high school for a subsequent switch to OL is easier than, or is at least a smart way to complement, identifying adequate OLs in high school.

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D3) How many football student athletes will FSU sign in 2013?

18 current seniors (one of which is McCray, who I expect to be medically DQed), plus one additional (underclass) 2012 roster subtraction = 19 minimum. Attrition plus early NFL draftees will determine how many over 19 FSU will be able to sign. If the aforementioned four (Werner, Jones, Rhodes, Joyner) exit early for the NFL, the minimum of 19 added to those four equal 23, which aligns with the assessment of needs for the 2013 below. So, perhaps 21-25?

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_) On which positions will FSU need to focus during the 2013 recruiting cycle?

With a large signing class possible, FSU could recruit almost every position:

QB (0-1): If there is a year FSU could forego signing a QB, 2013 is it, not that Fisher would actually consider doing that. FSU will have between 3-5 QBs on the roster in 2013. Secord departing early for playing time, and/or Winston deciding to play MLB would trim the QB depth chart to as little as three (Trickett, Coker, MaGuire). A question is whether Jimbo would want to wait a year to bring in an elite QB with room to start for two years, or continue his preference for bringing in a QB every year.

RB (3): Technically, FSU will have five RBs (Abram, Freeman, Wilder, Pender, Beverly) in 2013, but this could be lower if Wilder moves to LB. Two tailbacks and two fullbacks will not endure a season, so FSU may load-up on backs in 2013. I expect three: A bruiser, a fullback, and either a second bruiser or a speed-back. It would be ideal, but not necessary to find the once-in-a-decade back, but I'll save my requests for super-elite players for other positions (qv: LB).

TE (0-1): It appears that FSU intends to continue bringing in one TE per cycle. Theoretically, FSU (with O'Leary, Tye, & Kourzidis) could miss signing a TE in 2013, as long as we return to the trend in 2014 and beyond. So, FSU could sign an elite TE, or none.

WR (3): FSU will have as many as nine WRs in 2013, however, five (Dent, Haggins, Shaw, Haulstead, Gehres) of those nine will be departing after 2013. Furthermore, either or both Christian Green and Rashad Greene could also depart early for the NFL if they have 2013 seasons that rate an early-round 2014 NFL draft pick. Therefore, FSU is going to need to sign a minimum of three WRs in 2013, which will temporarily overstock the 2013 roster, but prevent 2014 roster-disaster if all seniors & juniors depart after 2013. FSU should also sign 2-to-3 WRs in 2014 to balance the roster. It would be nice to reel-in an elite prospect each year.

OT (2): Depending on where Rick Trickett places his men during the annual OL-shuffle, FSU has between 4-7 OTs on the roster. By 2013, only one (Pettis) will be an underclassman, meaning that FSU needs to sign at least one blind-side OT, and one right tackle in 2013, followed again by one each in 2014, in order to have the necessary depth. This is true regardless of whether a defensive linemen moves to the offensive line (I suggest Newberry, above). While Hart may be the next great one at right tackle, the recruited blind-side OT should be elite. It has been too long since a Nole at that position projected into the NFL (most-recent draftees: Walter Jones, Tra Thomas, Alex Barron, Mario Henderson in 15-years, none in the last five).

OG (1 or 2): FSU has between 5-8 OGs on the roster. By 2013, only two (Lovelady & Carter) will be underclassmen, so FSU needs to sign at least three over the next two cycles (2013 & 2014) to maintain depth & training for starting roles. To help numbers in other positions, FSU could sign just one in 2013, but would need two in 2014 to compensate. Many think we have a couple of bulldozers on the roster now, so perhaps only one in the next two classes needs to be elite (like former Noles: Hudson, Whitaker, Haynes, Dukes).

OC (1 or 0): FSU has two (Stork & Barron), but by 2013 they will both be upper classmen. FSU probably needs to sign a center during the year it recruits only one guard. This would enable FSU to sign four OLs (all OL positions) each of the next two years, which would represent a more balanced approach. Signing smaller numbers (3-5) more frequently could enable FSU to focus on more elite talent at this position, in lieu of signing a large number of projects who are often rushed into battle before they are physically or mentally ready (2007 and 2011 are recent examples). It is hard to find elite centers (can only think of Clay Shiver), so simply a smart, tough, mistake-free kid will do nicely.

PK/P (0): Since FSU just signed one of each in the 2012 cycle, the only reason it would have to sign one prior to recruiting a punter in 2015, would be catastrophe (injury, or a string of wide-somethings).

DT (1 or 2, depending on DT moves, if any): If FSU makes the DE-to-OT and DT-to-DE roster changes I suggest above, FSU will have six DTs (Erving, Jernigan, Lawrence-Stample, Mitchell, Goldman, Shanks) in 2013, requiring FSU to sign at least two more DTs in 2013 to maintain depth and develop its current pipeline of Seminole and future NFL stars at this critical position. If these roster moves are partially-implemented, then FSU could get away with signing a single DT in 2013, as long as it resumes signing at least two DTs in 2014 and beyond. An elite talent (like Simon, Dockett, Bunkley) is not critical if one is signed for 2014, especially with two projected elite talents (Jernigan & Goldman) on the roster through 2013.

DE (4, 3, or 2, depending on DT moves, if any): If FSU makes the DE-to-OT and DT-to-DE roster changes I suggest above, FSU will have five DEs in 2013 (McAllister, Hicks, Cummings, Edwards, & Casher, assuming Werner early-exits to the NFL after 2012), requiring FSU to sign at least three DEs in 2013. Depending on which of these roster moves are made, FSU could need to sign as little as two, and as many as four DEs in 2013. At least one should be elite (like SDEs Wilson, Wadsworth, Derrick Alexander, or WDEs Boulware, Wimbley, Ev Brown). Also of note: If Stoops takes Eliot with him when/if he is hired away, finding Eliot's replacement will be very important.

LB (4): FSU has a serious depth situation at LB, and will need to sign elite LBs in 2013 just to field a top-tier defense in 2013, let alone develop talent for the future. Assuming Christian Jones exits early to the NFL after 2012, FSU will only have six LBs (Telvin Smith, Luc, Terrell, Terrance Smith, Northrup, & Eligwe) on its roster in 2013, from which it must not only provide LBs, but also provide key special teams contributors. Telvin Smith & Jeff Luc will likely start by 2013, but we cannot tell from what we know today whether any of the remaining four will be starting material. Furthermore, FSU plays a lot of players at this position, so backup players that can play at a high level are needed here. The concern is that the playable/talented depth required for significant playing time in 2013, might not be on our roster in 2012. The aforementioned recommendation to shift Moody from safety to LB will not help FSU in 2013 - Moody is a senior in 2012. Therefore, I think FSU must sign a minimum of four LBs, with one being a fully-qualified super-elite (like Derrick Brooks, Sam Cowart, Ernie Sims, who would be able to start right away), and two being fully-qualified elite developmental projects (like Christian Jones, Nigel Bradham, Lawrence Timmons, Geno Hayes, who could start after one year of back-up playing experience), in order to ensure continuity. 2014 should include three LBs, with at least one elite talent in that class. Fortunately there are a lot of top-tier LBs available among 2012 high school juniors, we just need to get them signed as seniors in February 2013 (unlike our misses with Steward & Harvey-Clemmons).

CB & Safety (4): Signing 3 DBs (Darby, Blake, & PJ Williams) in 2012 helped FSU's future recruiting efforts greatly, by enabling Stoops, or his replacement, to avoid the need to stock-up with a larger number of less-experienced talent in 2013. By the 2013 season, FSU will still have seven underclassmen across the four DB positions. This is important because most likely, with Rhodes & Joyner projected to depart after 2012, only two quality upper class DBs will remain on the roster (Sr Brooks & Jr Karlos Williams, both of whom could depart after 2013). This would push four of the seven 2013 underclassmen into starting roles in 2014. With Florida & Miami also loading-up on DBs in 2012, in addition to their residual depth at these positions, and given that FSU only took three in 2012, FSU should be able to compete strongly for elite Florida DB talent, among which FSU should attempt to sign one at each position (BCB, FCB, SS, & FS), for a total of four. We're seeing with Joyner how important it is to find and play a five-star talent at safety. FSU needs Joyner's elite replacement in the 2013 class, because Brooks & Williams could only be around through 2013. Perhaps the most important recruit in 2013 is whoever Hudson hires to replace Stoops as DB coach, should that become necessary.

Total: 23-24

Obviously, the unexpected career-ending injury, disciplinary issue, playing-time unhappiness, academic circumstance, junior college transfer, and the simple passage of time will invalidate this projection...

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Your thoughts?