I think it's a safe assumption that FSU is going to have some coaching turnover after the 2012 season, regardless of the final record. I think this staff/program has been built for a run at the 2012 national title. A BCS game/win on their resume will only increase their price tag.
Who are the most likely coaches to leave? And what impact will their departure have on 2013 recruiting? Personally, I think everyone — save Jimbo, Vic and Odell — is a candidate to move on. They are all attractive to other programs for various reasons, be it resume or recruiting prowess.
Knowing Jimbo's penchant for planning (and having previously admitted that he wants his coaches to be sought after), he’s likely got the second wave of coaches ready to contact. I think the staff would be open and give him early warning if/when they are going to leave. Best-case would be that they depart for a strong move up the coaching ladder immediately after the season (for smaller schools far away from Tallahassee) and Jimbo announces their replacement(s) within days. Worst-case would be what Auburn went through this offseason.
It’s a good sign that other teams want to give coaches on our staff a promotion. FSU needs to manage the inevitable transition. This is a crucial recruiting cycle — lots of names to replace.
How does the staff recruit differently over the next 10-11 months? As much as we like to say that coaches recruit the school/program, we also admit that it's the relationship-building betweenthe coach and prospect that plays a large role in securing a commitment. Would any of this staff take players with them (à la Hudson/Trickett) when they leave? FSU is now recruiting on an elite level, so 4- and 5-star athletes are getting the most attention from this staff. Those players would most likely be interested in top-tier BCS schools, so the answer to the previous question is probably dependent on the school a coach is leaving for.
After the jump, FSU's 2012 coaching staff and an off-the-cuff percentage assigned to each for the likelihood of them leaving.
2012 FSU Coaching Staff
Jimbo Fisher — Head Coach
Rick Trickett — Assistant Head Coach & Offensive Line Coach
Greg Hudson — Assistant Head Coach & Linebackers Coach
Mark Stoops — Defensive Coordinator & Secondary Coach
James Coley — Offensive Coordinator & Tight End Coach
Dameyune Craig — Quarterbacks Coach & Recruiting Coordinator
Lawrence Dawsey — Passing Game Coordinator & Wide Receivers Coach
D.J. Eliot — Defensive Ends Coach
Eddie Gran — Associated Head Coach, Running Backs & Special Teams Coach
Odell Haggins — Defensive Line Coach
Vic Viloria — Strength & Conditioning Coach
My percentage chance that a coach have a different job title/school in 2013
Fisher — 5%
Trickett — 25%
Hudson — 20%
Stoops — 90%
Coley — 30%
Craig — 40%
Dawsey — 40%
Eliot — 50%
Gran — 40%
Haggins — 5%
Viloria — 5%
Total — 350% = 3.5 coaches turning over.
Questions aplenty, to be sure. Anyone have some thoughts to add?