ACC Offensive Line Game 1 Starters- A Statistical Breakdown

After the year the FSU offensive line had, I wondered how the other ACC teams faired when it came to starters and games played. I know subjectively we all felt the line was in flux but statistically what were the odds of this line falling apart like it did.

In order to find out I decided to take each ACC teams Game 1 starters and find out how many times they started the rest of the season. I approached it this way for the following reasons:

• 1. If an offensive lineman started Game 1, odds are he was viewed as one of the 5 best lineman available to the coaches
• 2. An offensive lineman plays most of the game and only comes out in the case of a substantial injury, I focused on starts to show if a player could play game in and game out they were producing better then the backups available
• 3. I broke down every starter individually and then I broke down each team as a whole.

In order to find what I was looking for I listed the number of starts from each offensive lineman, who started Game 1, and found the mean and standard deviation for all of these starters with in the ACC.

From that I found the statistical breakdown of an ACC offensive lineman who started week one.

Basically, on average, an ACC offensive lineman who started Game 1 started 10.8 games in the 12 game regular season. There was a 68.27% chance they started between 8.58 games and to round it out all 12 games. A 2.275% that an offensive line started less than 6 games after starting Game 1 and a less than 0.135% chance an offensive lineman who started Game 1 started less than 4 games.

So let's take a look at the FSU lineman and see what happened. Two of our five offensive linemen lie outside of two standard deviations of the mean starts. Statistically that is actually pretty absurd and can be considered a large part of the offensive line issues that were faced in 2011. Offensive lines are lucky to run 7-8 deep with quality so losing two starters who are asked to play the whole season is a killer. It was a double killer due to the lack of quality veteran depth behind the starting five that Bud warned us about all preseason.

Poor play can be attributed to the rest of the line as they played at or above the statistical mean of games started. On an individual basis you can see that in the ACC only Maryland and BC had a Game 1 starter who was below two standard deviations, combined tying FSU.

Now looking at the ACC teams as a whole we find FSU was setting records in probability.

That is right, there was 2.275% chance that an ACC offensive line unit would start below 44 games started if they started Game 1. Now these statistics cannot measure quality of the players that were playing but it is of note that the three teams that had arguably the worst line play the in conference also faced more missed games by Game 1 starters. Another note of interest is Virginia Tech was very lucky as they put the same starting five offensive linemen out for every regular season game with four of those five starters being seniors. I would look for that offensive line unit to take a good step back next year.

I have always heard consistency and chemistry make as much of a difference as the individual talent of the lineman on the field. Now it is hard to discern the impact skill talent has on the offensive out from the offensive line, but looking at the final OFEI rankings from http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2011 one can compare final ranking versus offensive line consistency. Basically if an offensive line unit played at or above the ACC mean of Game 1 Starters making starts then offensive line unit is either not that talented or not the problem.

Comparing a few teams stand out as under achieving and over achieving. First, FSU who finished 51st in the OFEI, could actually be considered overachievers given the line issues. The talent and the coaches helped to cover for the train wreck that the line was and produced at a sadly acceptable level. NC State really under achieved, 57 out of 60 starts from the Week 1 starters and they finish behind FSU in the OFEI. This leads me to believe that coaching/talent would be the issue they are facing. FSU,BC, and Maryland really had offensive line troubles throughout the season and it can be seen in their final rankings of OFEI.

After reviewing the data a few things can be taken.

• 1. FSU faced lost starters due to injury or play level that no other team faced in the ACC and I would venture a guess in the NCAA
• 2. The offense still produced at about as high of a level as one could hope with the instability at the line.
• 3. Having a relatively healthy and consistent offensive line in 2012 should do a great deal to improve the effectiveness of the unit
• 4. It is unlikely that FSU will have their Game 1 starters only start 68% of the total starts due to injury and ability in 2012, if they even come close Rick Trickett will be out of a job.