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I need football, so here's my WAY too early win Win Shares estimates

vs. Murray State - 1.00 ... There's a greater chance Tebow wins MVP than us losing this game, and both are 0%.

vs. Savannah State - 1.00 ... There's a better chance that Tebow sets the passing yards record this year than us losing this game, and both are 0%.

vs. Wake Forest - 0.925 ... I have a sneaking suspicion this team will REALLY want to win this game, negating any "looking ahead" to Clemson the following week. 66th in the country in F/+ last year against a Top 10 Noles team in Tallahassee, lets be serious.

vs. Clemson - .675 ... Fun fact; God doesn't like when FSU wins in Death Valley. He's more favorable when we play @ home and this is the biggest conference game on our schedule, and perhaps the most important game on our schedule, as Clemson is the ONLY team that has a shot at ruining our ACCCG aspirations. I'm sure the refs will REALLY have it out for us in this one but this wasn't the worst time to catch Clemson (see 2011, having to play the week AFTER Oklahoma) and we have a couple of games to "practice" for this game. Clemson fell off the map HARD towards the end of the year (besides VT) and was so thoroughly shellacked by WVU, that they fell alll the way to 36th in F/+, although they are a very good team and this will be tough football.

@ USF - .900 ... This team sucks. BJ Daniels might be our best weapon in this game (ala UF quarterbacks last year). Even if Daniels pulls a Scott Wood and has a career night against us (would that REALLY surprise anyone??) this Noles team is just FAR more talented than a Bulls team that although finished a respectable 40th in the F/+, just doesn't have the weapons to keep up with FSU. Payback for our last little ... ahem ... hiccup, may creep its way into this game as well.

@ NCST - .900 ... Who finished 67th in the F/+ and lost 34-0 to FSU in 2011, and does NOT get FSU on a Thursday night in 2012? NC State! Although Miami will not be Miami in 2012, NCST has to play @ Miami the week before and will, again (notice the trend here) face a far more talented Noles team.

vs. BC - .925 ... This team is a mess right now. 69th in F/+, with one of the worst offenses in college football (although Rettig should probably be better as a junior) and NOW without their Mr. everything on defense in Luke Keuchley (sp?), this should be an interesting season for the Eagles and an easy victory for the Noles (although BC always does seem to play us tough). Too much FSU, especially at home.

@ Miami - .700 ... As has been stated more times than is necessary to rehash on this website, this is the worst Miami team we'll have seen since college football has allowed the forward pass (just kidding, but seriously). That doesn't translate to a cakewalk, as their is still talent on this team, kinda, sorta. I'm told no one on the roster can legally drink yet (not that it should stop them) and this should be a fun game for Nole fans to watch. If we lose, it will be because we beat ourselves (and/or the ACC calls holding on every single one of our offensive plays (not unrealistic).

vs. Duke - .975 ... It's Duke. They finished just ahead of UL-Lafeyette in the 2011 F/+, because they suck. If FSU finds a way to lose this game, our season will have been a disaster. There is a big risk that FSU is looking ahead to the bye-week, but I'm fairly certain we could play 10 on defense and still win. If we lost this game once out of 20 times, I'd be bamboozled.

@ VT - .600 ... Thursday night (typically doesn't bode well for FSU). Thank God the ACC gave us a bye week before this (maybe they realized they NEED us more than we need them... doubt it). VT has to travel to Miami the week before (again, not as big of a deal as in years past, but still). Logan Thomas was at times unstoppable, and at times a really big, tall average schlub. Overall, the SOPHOMORE played pretty well, posting a QB eff rating of just 16 points below EJ for the year. Beamer will have his team, which finished #22 in the F/+, prepared, as always, to play the Noles, in a game that will almost certainly foreshadow the ACCCG. If EJ can stay healthy, I like our chances, as I'm not fully prepared to say we can lean on our run game (although we CAN lean on our defense) but we've yet to see an FSU QB have a fully healthy season since Drew Weatherford (and I always felt like he was hiding injuries).

@ MD - .900 ... For whatever reason, the Danny O'Brien experiment didn't work out at Maryland. I don't even know what about it was an experiment, really, as the kid had PLENTY of promise. So, who will step up and take the place of O'Brien? How about the guy who replaced O'Brien last year in C.J. Brown... I sure hope so at least, as the QB posted a rating almost 50 points lower than JOHN FREAKIN BRANTLEY. They went 2-10 last season, finished 96th in the F/+ and this who Randy Edsall hire has been an unmitigated disaster. Maryland is almost certain to be better this year (nowhere to go really but up) but this game should not be one we have to worry much about, as Maryland was 82th in the country in DEFENSE (only 6 spots better than the anemic offense).

vs. Lizards .600 ... Unfortunately for us, John Brantley graduated. While a lot of non-Nole fans are probably shocked to know that FSU finished 8th in the F/+, a lot of Nole fans might be surprised to know that in Muschimp's first season, he put UF at 30th in the F/+, despite a 7-6 record. Florida loses the VERY familiar faces of Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey (probably not the worst thing in the world if they are TRULY committed to this pro-style offense, but you NEVER want to lose talent like that) but returns a top-25 defense. Florida did possess one of the top-5 special teams units in the nation (where losing Demps/Rainey will have some of its true impact), although the dangerous Andre Dubose returns. The FSU offensive line should allow Manuel far more time to put together an offense and the UF offense cannot POSSIBLY be as bad as they were last year. Plus, the Gator offense will be a game short of 2 full years into their pro-style system. This game will be interesting, as it will feature 2 top-notch defenses, elite special teams, and a couple of offense with big question marks (theirs with more than ours). We should be favored, as the game is at home, but by how much is a BIG question that will only be answered as the season progresses.

I was widely criticized by saying before the season last year than anything short of an ACC Championship would be a failure by our expectations, and I HIGHLY doubt I will receive a shred of criticism for reviving that notion. The coaches have been talking about this season since BEFORE last season. The media is prepared to hype us AGAIN (although probably against their own desires after we "disappointed" them again last season for pegging us (perhaps a year too soon) as a top-10 team. This HAS to be the year where the Noles play in a BCS game (obviously not going to say we HAVE to make an MNC game - which would be ridiculous). There isn't a better team in the ACC than FSU and there aren't many better teams in the country. A lot of the success this year will likely depend on the offensive lines ability to give EJ Manuel time. Also, don't discount the impact of the loss of Shawn Powell (thank GOD Beatty was an EE).

The total comes to 10.1 total wins and 6.6 conference wins, which is what I would predict anyways (10-2, 7-1). Any more than 2 regular season losses and 1 conference loss is a failure.

What do y'all think?

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