The Golden Nugget released the first bettable college football lines (for a brick and mortar casino, anyhow). Here is a look at the games involving Florida State, UF and Miami and my analysis. For in-depth analysis, you can listen to the On The Line Podcast, which is being recorded tonight.
- Miami at Kansas State (-7) (Too low. Early game w/ KSU most experienced BCS team in CFB Miami super young)
- Florida at Texas A&M (Pick) (thought anything within 3 either way. Will be on Texas A&M at this number for a variety of reasons to be discussed on tonight's podcast)
- Florida at Tennessee (+5)
(Surprised by this. UF back to back SEC road games with young/new offense certainly a factor, but I am surprised the Nugget laid out a line bigger than a field goal.)Oops! I read this wrong. This seems too high to me, as I was expecting within a FG line either way. I would take Tennessee at this number given that it is UF's second consecutive big road game.
- Clemson at Florida State (-8) (Dead on, anything between 7.5 and 9.5 is right. Won't get 7 or less or 10 or more. Line implies FSU is 4 points better than Clemson on a neutral field and a big game at Doak gets about 4 points of home field value.)
- LSU at Florida (+7) (Seems too high. Implies LSU would be favored by 15 or 16 in Tiger Stadium)
- South Carolina at Florida (-3.5) (Seems right for evenly matched teams)
- Miami vs. Notre Dame (-9.5) (Seems low! Game in Chicago! Not a true neutral field. 4 point HFA for Notre Dame at least, and ND is certainly a TD better over Miami on true neutral field)
- Florida State at Miami (+9.5) (I expected to see a double digit number here. A little low)
- Florida vs. Georgia (-4.5) (About what I expected)
- Virginia Tech at Miami (+6.5) (Thursday night game for which Miami fans might show up)
- Missouri at Florida (-5.5) (Too low. If this remains under a TD I'll bet UF heavily. Line implies UF is not at least a FG better than Missouri on neutral field. )
- Florida State at Virginia Tech (-1) (No problem with being the underdog here. Expect within a FG line to either side)
- Florida at Florida State (-7.5) (Again, anything between 7.5 and 9.5. Won't get a flat 7 or a 10).
- Quite disappointed that they did not post any lines for Georgia Tech, any North Carolina school, etc. Also wanted to see Clemson-VT and that didn't come.