'Nole Your Opponent: Bill Connelly Previews Boston College

SB Nation football research genius and expert analyst Bill Connelly is previewing the ACC this week.

FSU hosts Boston College on October 13. Here's an excerpt from 2012 Boston College Football Preview: Present Vs. Precedent:

Defining Success

You just saw a streak of 12 straight bowl seasons end. The bar for 2012 is pretty easy to set, then: get back to the postseason by any means necessary.

Prognosis

I do think Boston College will improve this year. The offense should be better simply because of experience, the secondary should be exciting, and the front seven of the defense at least will not be worse (faint praise, to say the least). B.C. could be pretty mediocre in 2012 and still have technically improved, but when you've slipped, at least slightly, for six consecutive years, the rebound has to start somewhere.

There is indeed some logic in the optimistic Football Outsiders Almanac 2012 projections, even if they seem off-putting at first. If luck turns, and if experience counts for anything, the Eagles should once again at least crack the Top 50.

The problem, of course, is that the schedule is not conducive to a huge win total. Even when projected 44th, B.C. is only slated to go 6-6 in 2012. If they only improve to the 50s range, then you might not see any sort of improvement in the win column. And it will be very interesting to see if, despite extreme support from the athletic director, that finally gets Frank Spaziani on the hot seat. If Spaziani has a rebound in him, however, it starts in 2012.

The job Bill does with these is simlply incredible, and you need to read the whole thing incluidng the sections on offense and defense. This is a complicated team to analyze and they had a lot of issues in 2011.

I do think BC will be improved. And I think this game represents a decent gambling opportunity if the Eagles are 4-1. Because the crash comes late in the year as the Eagles finish with 6 bowl teams in a seven game stretch. And the team to kick off that crash will be the Seminoles.

Boston College should have never been a threat to Florida State. They had some very good teams before, but FSU should not lose to a team that brings in talent like BC. They beat the Bowden 'Noles in the expanded ACC in three of five years. FSU lost the games more than BC won them. Fisher's teams have dropped some games they should not have, but have gone 2-0 against the Eagles and should be 3-0 after 2012.

When BC made the cash grab and jumped to the ACC, it pretty much gave up hope of being one of the top dogs in the conference. That FSU and Clemson messed around in 06, 07 and 08 doesn't change that projection in the long term.

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