Since I have been fielding many questions from friends and family the last few days about the situation in the Atlantic, I've decided to let my fellow Noles in on what I know thus far. First let me get the disclaimer out of the way, I am in no way associated with the National Hurricane Center. Those guys and gals are far more educated on the in's and outs of hurricane's. Your local television news station follows the NHC, the weather channel follows the NHC guidance as do I. This post is solely for discussion and to have a quick link the most current model and info directly from the NHC.
A VERY BRIEF intro to hurricanes:
A) They are the red headed step children of weather. All other severe weather needs support from the a Jet. Hurricanes cannot evolve with the presence of a jet. They create shear and will shred a storm.
2) When looking to forecast the movement of a hurricane meteorologist usually look for the weakness in a ridge (high pressure). As of right now a trough is forecast to sweep across the southeast and push the ridge off further into the Atlantic and allow for this system to move toward FL.
D) As many Floridians have seen over the years tracking and accurately forecasting hurricanes can be a tough business. Weather is fluid and ever changing. The track will probably change 15 times over the next 11 days.
Here is the discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
A BURST OF CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE OF 1010 MB AT NOAA BUOY
41040...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT
FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE UKMET
ON THE RIGHT EDGE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE LEFT EDGE
SHOWING THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR...THEN IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT. THE TRACK IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT 24 HR OR SO...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR...SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 48 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST DURING THAT TIME HAS BEEN LOWERED BY 5-10 KT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 15.1N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.2N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.5N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.9N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 17.0N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/1200Z 20.5N 77.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
Here is the link to the most current GFS model. You can also select a differnt model is you please on the right side of the map.
I'll check in every now and again to answer some of the questions when I get a chance. There is a vast wealth of weather knowledge here ar Tomahawknation and many will be able to answer your questions. As always, GO NOLES!