Sept 1, 2012; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Murray State Racers wide receiver Patrick Robinson (5) is tackled on a kickoff by Florida State Seminoles defensive end Toshmon Stevens (96) during the game at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-US PRESSWIRE
Florida State is favored over Wake Forest by four touchdowns. Yes, over a team that has defeated FSU in four of the last six meetings. That's a very big number over a conference opponent.
Do you realize that the last time Florida State was favored by this much over a conference opponent was 2005 against Duke? That's a span of more than 50 ACC games!
It's true. Since expansion, FSU has only been favored by 24+ over a conference opponent one time. This year, it could happen three or four times.
Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher often discusses the idea of process v. results. Looking at the results, Wake Forest is a 2-0 team with a surprising win over North Carolina. Looking at the process behind those results, however, and we see that Wake Forest beat Liberty (1-AA) by three and UNC by a single point. Not only that, but UNC did not have its star running back, and its QB was concussed early in the second quarter.
Let's say that Wake doesn't get good luck in those two wins. With the same level of on-field play and slightly different luck, this could easily be an 0-2 Wake team with
a surprising win over UNC a really bad loss to Liberty. If that were the case, nobody would think twice about this line.
So no, the line is not that outrageous. Is it a good bet? Probably not, and especially not after it was bet up from the opening line of 24 to the 28 at which it currently sits.
For some bets that are good, however, check out my Week 3 College Football Betting Picks for SB Nation. Here's one:
Connecticut -2 at Maryland: I am a big fan of UConn defensive coordinator Don Brown and his eight returning defensive starters. UConn's defense is the best unit in this game. The Huskies' offense isn't any good, and neither is Maryland's offense or defense. Thus, I will lay the two points with confidence, having the only quality unit on the field on my side.
Click to check out the rest.