FanPost

The 2013 recruiting class can't be a total failure... right?

Feeling conflicted about the 2013 FSU recruiting class? You are not alone, for so am I. In response to this question I have compared the previous 2 recruiting classes to parallel them with the upcoming 2013 class.

Disclaimer: I am only counting non-OL, K/P, and JuCo players (since each is usually undervalued to better boost subscriptions on pay sites). I tried to do my best with averaging the stars and the possible top 100 statuses. I have provided an explanation on how I counted each player and if they were close in being within the Top 100. I averaged out the variance as best as I could. For example; if Mario Pender is 102, I counted him as a Top 100, and someone that was closer to the 110 range, I didn’t count. Hopefully my estimations about certain players regress to the mean. At the bottom of this post, I have listed each player in my discussion.

Chart A): Year to Year overall star comparison

Year

QB Avg *'s

% of Class

TE Avg *'s

% of Class

RB Avg *'s

% of Class

WR Avg *'s

% of Class

2011

3

6

4

6

4

17

4

11

2012

4

14

4

7

4

7

4

7

2013

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

4

7

3.33

29

Year

DT Avg *'s

% of Class

DE Avg *'s

% of Class

LB Avg *'s

% of Class

DB Avg *'s

% of Class

2011

3.66

17

4

6

3

11

3.6

27

2012

4.5

14

4.5

14

4

14

4

21.5

2013

N/A

N/A

3.5

14

3.5

29

3.33

21

Observations:

2011 and 2013 seem to be very comparable classes; with 2012 being the outlier. The number of 3*’s in 2011 and 2013 (thus far) are similar, along with the percentage within the class itself. The median of the talent range (4*’s non Top 100) are very comparable with 2013 holding the edge in overall percentage of players making up the total class. The contrast between 2011 and 2013 lies in the number of elite level players (4* Top 100 and 5*). 5 players match this description in 2011, making up 28% of the total class. In 2013 on the other hand, only 2 players fit this description thus far which equates to only 14% of the total class.

Chart 2): Talent at each position from year to year along with the percentage of a position within a class:

Year

# Non OL or K/P

# 5*'s

# 4*'s Top 100

# 4*'s Non-Top 100

# 3*'s

# 2*'s

2011

18

2 \ 11%

3 \ 17%

5 \ 28%

8 \ 44%

0 \ 0%

2012

14

3 \ 21%

4 \ 29%

6 \ 43%

1 \ 7%

0 \ 0%

2013

14

0 \ 0%

2 \ 14%

5 \ 36%

6 \ 43%

1 \ 7%

Observations:

OFFENSE

QB position – 2012 is an upgrade over 2011, while 2013 I predict probably will not have a QB recruit.

TE position – remained constant from 2011 to 2012, while 2013 is still up in the air

RB position – probably the most uniform position group, with the talent level remaining constant (please note taking into account the Eric Beverly MDQ; the year to year is almost identical)

WR position – in 2011 and 2012, scholarships were conserved while grabbing nice talented players with different skill sets that complemented one another.

DEFENSE

DT position – it is too early to give an analysis on the 2013 class, but there are some nice discrepancies amongst the 2011 and 2012 classes. From 2011 to 2012; there was an almost 1.0 * average upgrade at the DT position. While the percentage of DT’s in each class remained similar, this will lead to an upgrade in talent level at a position that requires great depth.

DE position – 2012 has the highest average star ranking with both 2012 and 2013 having the same percentage of players making up each class. Currently, the 2013 class has dropped off by a complete star average from the year before.

LB position – shares commonalities with the WR position, except for 2013 it is an upgrade over 2011. Looking at the percentages though; 2011 was not as talented, but it reframed from taking up almost 30% of the total 2011 class (unlike 2013).

DB position- The talent level in 2013 is down from the previous two classes, but the low overall percentage of the class (21%) is worth noting.

***2013 has used almost 30% of scholarships from non-OL, K/P, or JuCo players on WR's and LB's each, without maintaining the average talent level from the previous two classes.***

Overall Impressions:

These stats show (at this point in time) there are no significant differences between the 2011 class compared with the 2013 class as a whole (within the stated parameters). Trying to compare any class with the 2012 cycle is an exercise in futility, because consistently expecting a class of such a high magnitude is preposterous (unless if you are an Alabama or competently run Texas). Analyzing the entirety of the classes, there is no factual evidence to support that the highly thought of 2011 class is that much better than the maligned 2013 class. Even if this thought has not been expressed fully, there was no chatter about the 2011 class being a disappointment two years ago, when reviewing banter from January of 2011 up until signing day.

With that being said, delving deeper into the individual position groups; certain trends start to quantify a sentiment held by members of our fan base. At the WR and LB position, nearly 60% of our scholarship allotment is devoted to an average of 3.5 and 3.33 star players, respectively. In 2011, the secondary was by far the weakest with an average star rating of 3.6 stars while contributing 27% of the entire class. When directly comparing the weakest positions of the 2011 and 2013 classes (based on the talent level with overall percentages), the DB position from 2011 contained on average more highly touted players while taking up less numbers within the class over the 2013 cycle at the WR and LB positions.

Personal Thoughts:

This entire post was to analyze what FSU’s class looks like currently on January 29, 2013; knowing that the class will mostly likely resemble a Top10 class and have better numbers after signing day. The overarching thought that I had while preparing this post was the level of the 2012 class. That class, dare I say it, had a redonkulous collection of talent across the board.

Looking at 2011, the weakest portion of the class was at the DB position and the lack of another DE. Defending the staff; each shortcoming was not their mess, but they had to clean it up. The DB position received a pass due to the need to fill roster positions, when left devoid of talent and barren from the end years of the lost decade. DE fell short because of someone’s fat mother (who shall remain nameless) forced her son to go to Notre Dame. This caused this player to heroically return to home to play for a team in the Big East (I hope she is proud).

I believe that the level of talent in the 2013 class really isn’t the issue, per say. The accumulation of high numbers at particular positions is what is frightening the masses. Some of it is warranted and some of it not. Do we need LB’s? Yes. Could we have waited another year? No. Should we have tried to address this issue in previous years? I believe so.

The WR position is the more troubling position, in 2013. We will have, if everything holds up, 5 Sr’s or RS Sr’s, 2 Jr’s or RS Jr’s, 1 RS So, 1 RS Fr, and 4 Fr’s (13 players). Attrition has to probably remove 2 of these prospects, leaving 11 players. Applying a smart use of scholarships, it seems like over kill, but we all know how Jimbo loves his WR’s. To play devil’s advocate, there is a possibility of losing 1 to 2 players more than expected after the 2013 season (RG or KB). The numbers would then work themselves out, but there would be a pretty big log jam at a particular seniority level.

Ultimately, I believe the freak outs have come from the realization that future elite level recruits from 2014 and 2015 will go elsewhere because of perceived depth chart issues and limited playing time (which other coaches will be negatively plugging about FSU). Is this class perfect at this point? No, but it is certainly not an absolute disaster either. I want FSU to finish strong, but it wouldn’t offend me if less talented fringe players realize that they will get more playing time at Louisville or Akron.

Let me leave the offensive line chatter to more qualified people, so I can sit back and see the nuclear meltdown begin...

Let me know if you liked this post, because I am planning to do a similar workup on comparing FSU and Miami after national signing day.

2012- 18 non-OL, K/P, JuCo, and disregarding players that did not qualify

5*’s – James Wilder Jr, Karlos Williams

4*’s Top 100- Nick O’Leary, Kelvin Benjamin, Timmy Jernigan Giorgio Newberry,

4*’s non Top 100 – Devonta Freeman, Rashad Greene, Nile Lawrence-Stample, Nick Waisome,

3*’s – Jacob Coker, Eric Beverly, Derrick Mitchell, Arrington Jenkins, Terrance Smith, Keelin Smith, Tyler Hunter, Lamarcus Brutus

**Eric Beverly and Arrington Jenkins are medical DQ and no longer on the team, respectively, which make the 2011 stats a little better

2012- 14 non-OL, K/P, and JuCo, and disregarding players that did not qualify

5*’s – Jameis Winston, Eddie Goldman, Mario Edwards Jr

4*’s Top 100 – Mario Pender, Chris Casher, Ukeme Eligwe, Ronald Darby

4*’s non Top 100 – Christo Kourtzidis, Marvin Bracy, Justin Shanks, Reggie Northrup, Colin Blake, PJ Williams

3*’s – Sean Maguire

2013- 14 non-OL, K/P, and JuCo

4*’s Top 100 – Demarcus Walker, EJ Levenberry

4*’s non Top 100 - Isaiah Jones, Jesus Wilson, Freddie Stevenson, Marquez White

3*’s – Kermit Whitfield, Davin Bellamy, Tyrell Lyons, Roderrick Hoskins, Nate Andrews, Michael Johnson

2*’s – John Franklin

**Jesus Wilson and John Franklin are playing WR

So all of this boils down to just one question...

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