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ACC versus the Computers BCS week 1 mega post

The ACC did very well last weekend with only Maryland having a bad loss. Cuse winning would have been better for FSU but for the ACC as a whole GT winning was best. The SEC East was a disappointment. On the good side ND won, TAM lost, UCLA went down with LSU. All in all good weekend for FSU and the ACC in the computers.

A few quick notes. I ignore Billingsley for these posts he will be thrown out in the majority of the top 25 so its easy to do. I also have to make the big assumption that there will not be big upsets in order to do this project. Finally, before this week I was looking at a maximize points in the computers stand point now I am looking at maximizing rank slot stand point. An example, Tenn @ Bama this weekend. Last week I would have been for Bama because it improves VT sos while Tenn losing hurts Oregon and the Pac. Now its more important to take the minor hit of Oregon looking better and VT looking worse to move Bama down the rankings.

What a difference a year makes. Last year the SEC had just about the perfect computer season. The top 6 only lost to each other. 2 middle class teams lost to the top 6 but beat the bottom 6 and the bottom 6 that only beat each other. This maximizes SOS in both the RPI types and the ELO type systems. This weekend alone 4 bottom 6 teams beat top 6 teams based on last year plus a middle 2 beat a top 6.

In the BCS post on the front page I noticed a lot of comments how we only need to worry about Oregon in the computers which could not be further from the truth with how the BCS is playing out this season. Bama would need the crazy to happen on the field from this point on to finish in the top 2 in the computers if Oregon and FSU win out. But, they have a lock on the human votes. What this means in the real world is FSU besides needing to eat into both of their human votes its needs to distance itself from Bama in the computers. Really the only chance FSU has of getting in if all 3 remain unbeaten is for Oregon to start taking big chunks out of Bamas human votes while also picking up all the 3rd place and start taking 2nd and 1st place votes.

Noteworthy that FSU is first in 3 of the polls and 2nd in two others. The only reason its second in those 2 polls is because FSU has 6 games played compered to 7 games with that extra game FSU would be first in all the polls except the one that shall go unmentioned.

Here are the 3 contenders schedules so far. I cant figure out how to do proper tables so the rankings will be Sargain, Massey, Anderson Hester, Colley, Wolfe.

FSU

Pitt 33 30 39 36 27

Nevada 142 85 90 91 101

BCC 4 NA NA 95? 78 Yes you read that right BCC is 4th in Sargain.

BC 77 49 54 56 62

Maryland 81 45 47 48 51

Clemson 17 10 10 8 9

NCST 137 89 77 86 99

Miami 16 9 8 12 8

WF 106 63 59 67 69

Cuse 88 67 74 74 76

Idaho 191 109 110 116 128

uf 39 23 30 34 29

Bama

VT 9 7 13 9 5

TAM 29 16 22 22 17

CSU 164 104 97 97 110

Ole Miss 25 17 27 32 20

GA ST 237 122 124 137 385

UK 197 96 99 110 131

Arky 101 66 76 83 82

Tenn 62 31 40 43 43

LSU 26 11 14 17 16

Miss St 97 52 55 58 65

Chatt 162 NA NA 126? 169

Auburn 13 5 7 7 6

Oregon

Nicholls 167 NA NA 126? 168

UVA 160 82 83 90 96

Tenn 62 31 40 43 43

Cal 181 93 95 107 139

Col 73 53 69 69 64

Wash 41 32 32 35 34

WSU 44 37 49 55 48

UCLA 15 13 15 19 12

Stanford 19 6 6 6 10

Utah 37 29 33 41 35

Arizona 49 35 42 39 40

Oregon St 8 18 26 24 21

Oregon schedule has been backloaded and that is why they will most likely finish 1st in the computers. Alabama SOS is kind of trash with some very bad schools but they do have a couple of good games left.

Looking forward a bit to the VT Miami game. I really am not sure how to judge it. If VT wins they will move up slightly more then Miami but Miami will drop a lot more then VT. I think a rematch is better for the computers but its really hard to judge how the humans would vote as there really has never been a rematch like this before I really think it depends on how the first game goes. Not that I think it would happen but if Miami where to pull an upset at Doak and FSU where to win out and win a rematch FSU can still finish top 2 to 4 in the computers.

Here are the current contenders again meaning teams that control a top 5 computer ranking.

ACC- FSU, Miami, and VT

Big 10- tOSU

Big 12- Texas Tech and Baylor

Pac 12- Oregon and Stanford

SEC- Mizzou, Bama, and Auburn

Everyone else needs too many of these teams to lose to have a chance

Finally for this weeks games

ACC games aka don't pull a SEC East

WF @ Miami Miami needs to win.

GT @ UVA GT needs to win

Pitt @ Navy Pitt needs to win

BC @ UNC BC needs to win

Duke @ VT VT needs to win

Clemson @ Maryland After Marylands loss Clemson must win

NCST @ FSU FSU must win

OOC games of note or that matter to FSU/ACC

Vandy @ TAM A Vandy win all but kills any chance of Alabama catching FSU in the computers

Tenn @ Bama Bama needs to lose a game this would have the added benefit of slightly making UF look better for both FSU and Miami

TT @ OU OU winning would knock out one of the undefeated's plus helps ND.

Utah @ USC USC winning hurts Stanford and Oregon SOS a bit.

ND @ Air Force ND is our friends this season well until Pitt.

UCLA @ Oregon UCLA is my second favorite team this weekend. UCLA winning all but guarantees FSU number 1 in the computers and BCS bid.

PSU @ tOSU A upset would be nice to gain all the human votes tOSU has above us.

Stanford @ Oregon St I will go with Stanford if UCLA is losing/lost but if UCLA pulls the upset go Oregon St. This perfect scenario would give FSU the inside track for being the 1st 1 loss team in if needed.

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