As always great work by Bill. I've includes excerpts of the three most discussed teams so far but click the link as there is lots of great stuff inside: All 12 BCS National Championship contenders, ranked by odds of winning out
BCS Ranking: 1
F/+ Ranking: 1
Chances of winning out: 60%
Remaining games: No. 49 Tennessee (99%), No. 15 LSU (89%), at No. 52 Mississippi State (98%), Chattanooga (100%), at No. 25 Auburn (83%), SEC Championship vs. No. 9 Missouri (81%) or No. 22 South Carolina (86%)
Safe to say, Alabama has gotten things figured out since barely surviving Johnny Football in Week 3. Obviously an LSU team bringing its A-game could seriously challenge the tide, and the Iron Bowl trip across the state certainly looks more difficult than it did a few weeks ago, but Alabama's odds are still predictably strong. While LSU has had some pretty distinct ups and downs recently, Alabama has been mostly up.
2. Florida State
BCS Ranking: 2
F/+ Ranking: 2
Chances of winning out: 52%
Remaining games: No. 93 NC State (99%), No. 10 Miami (83%), at No. 81 Wake Forest (99%), No. 84 Syracuse (99%), No. 120 Idaho (99%), at No. 31 Florida (85%), ACC Championship vs. No. 8 Virginia Tech (77%) or No. 10 Miami (77%)
This is perhaps the strongest proof of how odds work. Even though Florida State would have a better than three-in-four chance of beating either Virginia Tech or Miami on a neutral field in the ACC title game, and even though the rest of the regular season slate is beginning to look painfully easy, the Seminoles still only have a 52 percent chance of finishing 13-0. If they slip up along the way, it will be used as another example of Florida State Being Florida State, but really, odds of winning every game just aren't great for anybody.
BCS Ranking: 3
F/+ Ranking: 4
Chances of winning out: 14% (44% if the Ducks survive UCLA and Stanford)
Remaining games: No. 18 UCLA (87%), at No. 3 Stanford (36%), No. 12 Utah (82%), at No. 20 Arizona (75%), No. 36 Oregon State (98%), Pac-12 Championship vs. No. 18 UCLA (80%) or No. 6 Arizona State (66%)
Wow, does F/+ love the Pac-12. Arizona State's domination of Washington -- a team that almost beat Stanford and stuck with Oregon for most of 50 minutes -- vaulted the Sun Devils to sixth in the F/+ ratings, a pretty huge jump for this time in the year. With Utah sticking at 12th, Washington at 16th, UCLA at 18th, Arizona at 20th, and USC somehow at 21st (well, I know how: the defense still grades out very well), the Pac-12 has eight of the top 21 teams overall. And in six remaining games (including the Pac-12 title game), Oregon would probably play five of them. The Ducks are great, but the remaining slate is a monster.
Bill gives Alabama and FSU the best chances of winning out but ranks Oregon's chances as 6th out of all the potential contenders. He also projects the chances of all 3 of those teams winning out under 5%, based on his win share percentages. Its really is a must read, so please check it out. So what do you guys think? Also would you put FSU's(Or any other teams's) win percentages for each remaining game higher, lower, or keep them the same?