Sure! But based on historical data not a very good one. Probably about 5%.
The link below shows actual wins and ATS results of over a decade of recent NCAA football games. It shows (amongst many other things...have at it data geeks) that in the time frame analyzed, 21.5+ underdogs have won outright a little less than 7% of the time. Road dogs getting that many points (as UM will this week) have won about 5% of the time.
So...yeah. UM has a chance. A very, very small chance to win this weekend.
But widerightdukeisawesomebrohistorydaewerivarlybestkratetrippinyo! Yes, I'm sure some of that matters. Probably about 5% of it.