Noles News 10.07.13: Grading Florida State over Maryland

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

FSU is on a bye week, so there is no Jimbo Fisher press conference.

Multi-part Noles news segment today.

Check out all of our game coverage:

Review

After every Florida State game, we review how the Seminoles did before garbage time, and measure it against the goals set out in the preview. Florida State destroyed Maryland 63-0.

The game was over when... the end of the third quarter. That's not arbitrary. It's just where the formula hit. The entire fourth quarter was made up of garbage time.

Offense

More than 7.0 yards a play before garbage time (350 yards on 50 plays, 420 yards on 60 plays, 490 yards on 70 plays)

We set a lofty goal for this offense at home, despite Maryland having a very strong defense coming in (on paper). And FSU hit it, amassing 477 yards on 65 plays, good for 7.3/play.

No more than 1 turnover

Zero turnovers. A very clean game. And yes, I agree this is the least controllable goal, but FSU does set turnover goals for each game.

66% or greater TDs in the red zone

Try 100%. Perfect (insert Street Fighter II "perfect" voice sound here).

Defense

Less than 5.0 yards/play allowed before garbage time (250 yards on 50 plays, 300 yards on 60 plays, 350 yards on 70 plays).

FSU allowed 196 yards on 40 plays before garbage time, good for 4.9 yards/play. Which actually meets the somewhat aggressive goal we set.

Force 2 turnovers

FSU forced only one turnover in an otherwise very solid performance, further emphasizing that turnovers have a large luck/randomness component. FSU did drop at least two sure interceptions.

Less than 50-percent touchdowns allowed in the red zone.

Undefined? Maryland never entered the red zone, so it was 0-0.

Futures lines

The futures lines are out on Sportsbook.com. Here they are for FSU and FSU's opponents.

  • Florida State at Clemson -1
  • Miami at Florida State -11
  • Florida State -2.5 at Florida
  • Clemson +1 at South Carolina
  • Florida -1 at Missouri
  • Florida +3.5 v. Georgia
  • Florida +3.5 at South Carolina

Which of these surprises you? One thing stands out to me here: FSU still has two road games to two of the five or six toughest environments in college football. Home/road matters a ton in college football.

As of now, I would give FSU about a 16-17% chance of going undefeated.

Gators QB

Tyler Murphy is playing quite well for Florida. Granted, the competition has not been great, but he sure seems more comfortable in the pocket and more confident than Driskel was.

So why didn't they start this kid instead of Driskel? Their coaches were very down on Murphy. I know this via knowing some people they spoke with. They were so down on him that they were reluctant to run Jeff Driskel due to fear of having Driskel get hurt and having to play the backup.

Here's an idea on why Murphy was so bad in practice.

Job security

FSU impressed Montae Nicholson

FSU didn't have an awesome list of recruiting visitors for the Maryland game, but it did have some studs on hand.

Montae Nicholson, a defensive back/receiver from Monroeville (Pa.) Gateway High School, really enjoyed his visit. FSU people feel confident on how it went, but, will distance ultimately end up being a factor? We shall see.

The Seminoles continue to be in good position for slot WR/RB Myles Autry, of Norcross (Ga.). I did not see him on the sidelines before the game, but did hear that he was there.

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