FanPost

FSU Big over Miami - In a nut shell

While some folks see Miami as 7-0 and say "7-0 is 7-0" and still undefeated, I say this Miami team is 7-0 by pure luck and enough talent over the teams they've faced thus far (until the injury bug has begun to bite them as of late – key injuries noted below).


Luck of the Ibis

Earlier this year when Florida traveled to Miami, they should have beaten that Miami team. Florida’s defense was one of the best in the country (war of injuries has beaten them as well) and they had enough offense (back then) to win close games but luck was on Miami’s side with the first half turnovers committed by UF’s offense which just wasn't built to come from behind against like-talented teams. Now fast forward to the UNC and Wake Forest games. Due to the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons lack of potent offense or should I say home run hitting WR or RB, is the reason why Miami won those games. Miami won the Wake Forest game because it has a very good offensive line which was able to wear down the Wake Forest defense down the stretch just enough for Duke Johnson to break loose at the end of the game and secure a come from behind win over Wake Forest. Yes folks, Wake Forest. (And not to be a total homer and oblivious to recent past triumphs over mediocre FSU teams but this Wake Forest team is not one of those teams.) This luck will not happen against FSU, though I do understand anything can happen on any given Saturday in college football (and in the NFL).


Miami on Offense

FSU’s defense is perhaps the best defense Miami will be have faced all season (yes, even better than the vaunted UF defense – in September). It is not lost on me that the power running game that Boston College deployed back in week four is a glimmer of hope for Miami but as you saw with the last three games (I know those were all spread offense teams) the defense is playing the same schemes, however they just are simply in the right places now. Which they weren't in for the BC or Nevada games and we all saw the missed tackles and jet sweeps that caught the Seminole defense off guard. (Note: BC had a bye week to prepare for a young and still developing ‘Nole defense. Though, I will give credit to Adazzio, who had a very good plan but just not the hoses – yet). Lastly, with the lack of home run hitters for Miami out, their ability to go over the top on FSU’s defense is gone; so FSU can literally run a seven or eight man box and pressure Morris all day while daring him to beat the Seminoles deep. And so far this year that has not yet happened. FSU’s defense does a very good job of shutting down WR1 and is great this year at ball hawking since the front 4/5 put so much pressure on opposing offensive lines and QBs. With an average or better than average QB1 Miami could keep it close, however Morris has gone backwards this year and is pure garbage at this point. Duke Johnson is pretty much all that offense that Miami has these days and while he is top notch, he simply cannot be the lone weapon against this FSU defense.


FSU on Offense

As for the FSU offense, which is perhaps the best offense in the country (Oregon is a close second), the defense that Miami brings to Tallahassee isn't nearly what it was against Florida and won’t nearly be as lucky. The Seminole offense is hitting on all cylinders at this point and the red-shirt Freshman, all-world and unflappable Winston appears to be completely un-fazed against blitzes thus far as he routinely finds the man coverage in the 15-yard or deeper routes with a whopping 62% accuracy and a 15 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio. Just for comparison sake, the other two Heisman contenders, Mariota and Manziel, are 54% and 52% respectively. Not to mention that these are very same wide outs that EJ Manual threw to last year. Oh and let’s not forget that FSU is averaging over 200 yards/game on the ground but we’ll let some of that slide since that’s because FSU is running the ball a lot in the second half as the games have been out of reach for opponents.

Prediction: I like Seminoles here 45-17 and FSU jumps Oregon again in the BCS.

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