FanPost

ACC versus the Computers BCS week 3 this weekend tells us a lot edition

This past weekend was pretty good for FSU with us moving back into second place in the BCS. The ACC had a decent weekend.

I have seen in the comment section a lot of FSU versus Oregon talk but there is a 3rd team involved in all of this with Bama. This matters even if they have a stranglehold on the number 1 spot with human voters because Oregon can still take votes from them not just us. The worst case is Oregon stomps Stanford while Bama wins a close and ugly game against LSU. Oregon then goes and takes 20 votes between the 2 human polls while FSU picks up 1 or 2 which is probably more likely to happen then any other outcome.

This week I am introducing The Jim RPI. The Jim RPI is exactly the same as the RPI used in basketball. Its one quarter Winning Percentage + one half Opponents winning Percentage + one quarter Opponents Opponents Winning Percentage. I am using this because half of the polls are some variation of RPI just different weights and/or extra criteria. Even the ELO types this will give a good enough feel on what they will look like in the future.

Note I do not include FCS in these totals because not all polls include them I also don't include Old Dominion because they are not full FBS yet and I am not exactly sure how all the polls are treating them this year. This will underplay a bit FSU compared to Oregon and Bama as B-C is a top 5 FCS school this year. The only real place this gets funky is with Oregon State.

FSU

Pitt OWP .500 OOWP .5978 RPI .6495

Nevada OWP .333 OOWP .5870 RPI .5633

BC OWP .500 OOWP .5978 RPI .6495

UM-CP OWP .625 OOWP .5161 RPI .6915

Clem OWP .889 OOWP .6170 RPI .8486

NC ST OWP .375 OOWP .6000 RPI .5875

MIami OWP .875 OOWP .5275 RPI .8194

WF OWP .444 OOWP .6264 RPI .6286

Cuse OWP .500 OOWP .5761 RPI .6440

Idaho OWP .111 OOWP .6019 RPI .4560

uf OWP .500 OOWP .6489 RPI .6622

FSU has a total Jim RPI of .6455 based on OWP of .5109 and OOWP of .5602

Oregon

UVA OWP .222 OOWP .7283 RPI .5432

Tenn OWP .111 OOWP .6882 RPI .4776

Cal OWP .375 OOWP .6053 RPI .5888

Col OWP .444 OOWP .6087 RPI .6244

Wash OWP .444 OOWP .6237 RPI .6281

WSU OWP .750 OOWP .5600 RPI .7650

UCLA OWP .875 OOWP .5980 RPI .8370

Stanford OWP .500 OOWP .6848 RPI .6712

Utah OWP .750 OOWP .5699 RPI .7675

Ari OWP .667 OOWP .5275 RPI .7152

OST OWP .516 OOWP .6190 RPI .6628

Oregon has a total Jim RPI of .6628 based on OWP of .5161 and OOWP of .619

Alabama

VT OWP .667 OOWP .6292 RPI .7407

TAM OWP .779 OOWP .6196 RPI .7938

Col St OWP .444 OOWP .4100 RPI .5747

Ole Miss OWP .625 OOWP .6421 RPI .7230

GA St OWP .000 OOWP .5974 RPI .3994

UK OWP .250 OOWP .6087 RPI .5272

Ark OWP .333 OOWP .6630 RPI .5823

Tenn OWP .444 OOWP .6739 RPI .6407

LSU OWP .778 OOWP .5429 RPI .7746

Miss St OWP .500 OOWP .6809 RPI .6702

Auburn OWP .889 OOWP .5745 RPI .8381

Alabama has a total Jim RPI of .66 based on OWP of .5208 and OOWP of .5984

What does all of this mean? It means FSU is going to start to fall back in the computers without help. Of course a lot of teams still have to play each other and it will change but FSU is going to need help in the computers.

Going though these games I have found some key teams that are beyond you obvious UF and USCe that have a fairly big impact. Col State for example that played Bama, plays FSU Opp Neveda this weekend, and plays SJST that a few Pac schools played. Old Dominion and NMST are two others. Old Dominion played both Pitt and Maryland and still has games against Idaho and UNC. NMST is another that plays Idaho, BC and played UCLA, Texas and Rice.

Most important games of the week for FSU

Oregon @ Stanford Stanford to win.

FSU @ WF FSU needs to run up the score

Mizzou @ UK Go Tigers. They help our OOWP and a UK loss hurts Alabama

Vandy @ UF Go boots and belts. They need to approve asap for us other wise they will kill 2 Florida schools chances this year

UVA @ UNC Go Tar Heels. We don't play either but every loss hurts Oregon more then us when it comes to UVA

PSU @ Minn we want PSU as it helps Cuse a bit.

BYU @ Wisconsin We want Wisconsin to win for two reasons. In the worst case Wisconsin is our likely Orange Bowl opponent. In the best case BYU losing hurts the Pac and Oregon.

Nevada @ Col State. Nevada win would be huge. Helps FSU and hurts Bama. This is a game all FSU fans should keep an eye on.

Cuse @ Maryland. Maryland winning is better for FSU.

BC @ NMST. BC MUST WIN NOT EVEN AN OPTION TO LOSE. All caps because it would be an awful loss for both BC and FSU

NCST @ Duke. Duke winning would be better for FSU even if they are not a direct opponent while NCST is mostly because Duke is an OO for Miami.

OD @ Idaho. Idaho is a direct opponent but they are awful and we played 2 teams that play OD. Not a horrible loss to us.

VT @ Miami. Have to go with the Thugs for the rest of the season

LSU @ Bama. Go Tigers.

ND @ Pitt. Pitt winning would be so huge.

Col @ Washington. Col upset would be nice just to cause some chaos in the Pac

UCLA @ Arizona. Arizona winning is just a tad bit better for us then UCLA.

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