FanPost

A Fun Look at the 2013 Seminoles

This is by no means an example of advance metrics. I enjoy the statistical approach that all of the contributors on this site make, but will never attempt to rival those.

I came to Florida State in 1993 right in the middle of the dynasty years. As I am sure many here will agree, this year has started to feel a lot like those days in the 1990’s when we went to games not wanting to win, but expecting to win. We have gotten a little taste of that since 2010, but it has not been as satisfying as those years… until now. This team has a completely different feel. Maybe it is because it has been so long since we could legitimately talk about our Noles as true national title contenders, but I am beginning to feel a little better about this team than even some of those from the glory days. Additionally, I read somewhere that this is the first time in school history that FSU has scored more than 40 points per game through the first eight games of the season. I actually found that surprising. I guess I remembered the dynasty years as a little better than they actually were (if that is even possible). All of this got me wondering how, from a simple fan’s perspective (someone who is not a student of the game), does this team compare to those teams from the 1990’s. I pulled a few statistics from those years to see how the 2013 team stacks up. I then thought that it would be fun to compare to the first three years under Coach Fisher. I ignored the lost decade, because who really wants to live that again.

table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; }
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg '90-'00 Avg '10-'12
# of Games 12 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 14 13 14 8 12.4 13.7
# of Wins 10 11 11 12 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 12 8 10.9 10.3
# of Losses 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 0 2 4 4 2 0 1.5 3.3
Offense:
Avg points per game 38 35 37 41 36 47 37 39 31 38 39 31 31 39 51 38.0 33.8
# of Games >= 40 6 5 4 8 5 8 6 6 3 7 5 2 3 7 8 5.7 4.0
Highest Score 70 58 70 62 59 77 54 58 62 51 63 59 62 69 63 62.2 63.3
Lowest Score 17 9 13 18 17 24 13 14 7 17 2 16 13 16 41 13.7 15.0
Defense:
Avg points allowed per game 17 14 16 10 17 21 15 17 12 17 10 20 16 15 13 15.1 16.8
Highest Score Allowed 31 31 24 31 34 35 52 51 24 35 27 47 35 37 34 34.1 39.7
Lowest Score Allowed 3 0 3 0 0 10 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 2.1 0.0
# of Shutouts 0 1 0 3 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 2 2 1 0.9 1.7
Avg MOV 27 24 24 34 24 33 28 24 24 21 35 21 23 30 38 27.1 24.7

Here are the things that jump off the page (keep in mind this is in no way adjusted for quality of opponent). I know it is already obvious, but this offense is GOOD. Through eight games in 2013, we are on average scoring 13.1 more points per game than the teams from 1990 to 2000 and 17.4 more points more per game than we did in the first three years under Coach Fisher. Through only two-thirds of the 2013 season, we have scored at least 40 point in a game eight times (8 for 8). The teams from 1990 to 2000 only managed to average 5.7 games per season in which they scored more than 40 points. Our lowest point total in 2013 is 41 points, a mere 27.3 points better than our lowest average score during the 1990’s. It is a small sample size, but it is no wonder why this team is so much fun to watch.

Again, it is very obvious, but the defense is holding its own with the offense. The average points given up per game, highest score allowed and number of shutouts are all on par with the teams from the 1990’s. Through eight games we have one shutout. We have four games left in the regular season. There are still a couple of opportunities to increase that number – Wake this week and Idaho in three weeks (I would love to shut out Florida in the Swamp, but won’t be that optimistic yet). For comparison, the highest number of shutouts in one season (in my sample) was three from the 1993 team. If I remember correctly, didn’t our defense out score the first four or five opponents that year?

Finally, our average margin of victory this year is crazy. On average we beat teams by 38 points. Even better, 25% of our games have been against top-10 teams and we beat those teams by an average of 32 points. These guys are good.

What is really striking to me is that Coach Fisher is known as an offensive mind, but he has filled his coaching staff with strong defensive coaches that can bring the same level of play on that side of the ball, making for a well rounded team. I have to think it is no simple task to get your offense, defense and special teams to all play at an elite level in the same year. I am guessing there are quite a few Gator fans that wish they were having as much luck with Muschamp and their offensive staff right now as we have had with Fisher and his staff.

It has taken four years, but the “process” seems to be working. With recruiting continuing strong, hopefully we are living the beginning of the next dynasty, where we no longer just want to win, but where we expect to win each and every Saturday during the fall.

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