FanPost

What Position Do Recruiting Analysts Most Accurately Project to the NFL?

There will always be a long standing debate over how accurate the rankings are from places like 247, Rivals, ESPN, and Scout. This article will focus on the 2008 High School Class, as their careers have all come to an end and we know their NFL Draft position (or lack thereof). For this article as a means of simplification, I will use the 247 Composite Rankings.

The Formula

  • 5* drafted in Round 1 = 100 points
  • 5* drafted in Round 2 = 75 points
  • 5* drafted in Round 3 = 50 points
  • 5* drafted in Rounds 4 through 7 = 25 points
  • 5* who goes undrafted = -50 points
  • 4* drafted in Round 1 = 75 points
  • 4* drafted in Round 2 = 60 points
  • 4* drafted in Round 3 = 50 points
  • 4* drafted in Round 4 through 7 = 25 points
  • 4* who goes undrafted = -40 points
To account for differences in the number of players who play at each position, I will calculate the maximum amount of points available and then determine the percentage earned.
Remember this is only looking at the Top 100 Composite Players.
Quarterbacks = .542 (325 Points out of a possible 600)
  1. 5* Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State - Round 3 (Supplemental) to the Oakland Raiders
    50 points
  2. 5* Dayne Crist, Notre Dame - Undrafted
    -50 points
  3. 5* E.J. Manuel, Florida State - Round 1 to the Buffalo Bills
    100 points
  4. 4* Blaine Gabbert, Missouri - Round 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars
    75 Points
  5. 4* Andrew Luck, Stanford - Round 1 to the Indianapolis Colts
    75 Points
  6. 4* Mike Glennon, N.C. State - Round 3 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    50 Points
  7. 4* Landry Jones, Oklahoma - Round 4 to the Pittsburgh Steelers
    25 Points
Running Backs -.103 (-85 Points out of a possible 825)
  1. 5* Darrell Scott, Colorado - Undrafted
    -50 points
  2. 5* Jermie Calhoun, Oklahoma (transferred to Angelo State)
    (Incomplete, currently plays for Angelo State University, though will likely NOT be drafted)
  3. 5* Richard Samuel, Georgia - Undrafted
    -50 points
  4. 4* Jamie Harper, Clemson - Round 4 to the Tennessee Titans
    25 points
  5. 4* Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech - Round 2 to the Arizona Cardinals
    60 points
  6. 4* Cyrus Gray, Texas A&M - Round 6 to the Kansas City Chiefs
    25 points
  7. 4* Justin Johnson, Oklahoma (transferred to Abilene Christian) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  8. 4* Aundre Dean, UCLA (transferred to Texas Christian) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  9. 4* Jonas Gray, Notre Dame - Undrafted
    -40 points
  10. 4* Andre Ellington, Clemson - Round 6 to the Arizona Cardinals
    25 points
Wide Receivers .049 (65 Points out of a possible 1325)
  1. 5* Julio Jones, Alabama - Round 1 to the Atlanta Falcons
    100 points
  2. 5* A.J. Green, Georgia - Round 1 to the Cincinnati Bengals
    100 points
  3. 5* DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss - Undrafted
    -50 points
  4. 5* Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh - Round 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs
    100 points
  5. 5* Michael Floyd, Notre Dame - Round 1 to the Arizona Cardinals
    100 points
  6. 4* Aldarius Johnson, Miami - Undrafted
    -40 points
  7. 4* Dan Buckner, Texas (transferred to Arizona) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  8. 4* Joshua Jarboe, Oklahoma (transferred to Arkansas State) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  9. 4* Brice Butler, Southern Cal (transferred to San Diego State) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  10. 4* Darryl Stonum, Michigan (transferred to Baylor) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  11. 4* D.J. Shoemate, Southern Cal (transferred to UConn) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  12. 4* DeSean Hales, Texas - Undrafted
    -40 points
  13. 4* DeVier Posey, Ohio State - Round 3 to the Houston Texans
    50 points
  14. 4* Jameel Owens, Oklahoma (transferred to Tulsa) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  15. 4* Deion Walker, Notre Dame (transferred to UMass) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  16. 4* Tavarres King, Georgia - Round 5 to the Denver Broncos
    25 points
Tight Ends -.215 (-70 points out of a possible 325)
  1. 5* Blake Ayles, Southern Cal (transferred to Miami) - Undrafted
    -50 points
  2. 4* Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame - Round 2 to the Minnesota Vikings
    60 points
  3. 4* Kavario Middleton, Washington (transferred to Montana) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  4. 4* Jake Stoneburner, Ohio State - Undrafted
    -40 points
Offensive Linemen -.183 (-210 points out of a possible 1150)
  1. 5* Michael Brewster, Ohio State - Undrafted
    -50 points
  2. 5* Tyler Love, Alabama - Undrafted
    -50 points
  3. 5* Matt Kalil, Southern Cal - Round 1 to the Minnesota Vikings
    100 points
  4. 5* Mike Adams, Ohio State - Round 2 to the Pittsburgh Steelers
    75 points
  5. 4* Tyron Smith, Southern Cal - Round 1 to the Dallas Cowboys
    75 points
  6. 4* Matt Patchan, Florida (transferred to Boston College)
    Incomplete, currently playing for Boston College, though will likely NOT be drafted.
  7. 4* Stephen Good, Oklahoma - Undrafted
    -40 points
  8. 4* J.B. Shugarts, Ohio State - Undrafted
    -40 points
  9. 4* Lucas Nix, Pittsburgh - Undrafted
    -40 points
  10. 4* Dann O'Neill, Michigan (transferred to Western Michigan) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  11. 4* A.J. Harmon, Georgia (transferred to Alabama State) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  12. 4* Antoine McClain, Clemson - Undrafted
    -40 points
  13. 4* Matt Meyer, Southern Cal - Undrafted
    -40 points
  14. 4* Trevor Robinson, Notre Dame - Undrafted
    -40 points
  15. 4* David Snow, Texas - Undrafted
    -40 points
Defensive Linemen -.153 (-165 points out of a possible 1075)
  1. 5* Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson - Drafted Round 2 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    75 points
  2. 5* R.J. Washington, Oklahoma - Undrafted
    -50 points
  3. 5* Marcus Forston, Miami - Undrafted
    -50 points
  4. 5* Omar Hunter, Florida - Undrafted
    -50 points
  5. 4* DeAngelo Tyson, Georgia - Drafted Round 7 to the Baltimore Ravens
    25 points
  6. 4* Ethan Johnson, Notre Dame - Undrafted
    -40 points
  7. 4* Chancey Aghayere, LSU - Undrafted
    -40 points
  8. 4* Brandon Thompson, Clemson - Drafted Round 3 to the Cincinnati Bengals
    50 points
  9. 4* Jarvis Humphrey, Texas - Undrafted
    -40 points
  10. 4* Nick Perry, Southern Cal - Drafted Round 1 to the Green Bay Packers
    75 points
  11. 4* William Green, Florida - Undrafted
    -40 points
  12. 4* Marcus Robinson, Miami - Undrafted
    -40 points
  13. 4* Toby Jackson, Georgia (transferred to Central Florida) - Undrafted
    -40 points
Linebackers -.205 (-215 points out of a possible 1050)
  1. 5* Arthur Brown, Miami (transferred to Kansas State) - Drafted Round 2 to the Baltimore Ravens
    75 points
  2. 5* Nigel Bradham, Florida State - Drafted Round 4 to the Buffalo Bills
    25 points
  3. 5* Etienne Sabino, Ohio State - Undrafted
    -50 points
  4. 4* Ramon Buchanan, Miami - Undrafted
    -40 points
  5. 4* Jerrell Harris, Alabama - Undrafted
    -40 points
  6. 4* Sean Spence, Miami - Drafted Round 3 to the Pittsburgh Steelers
    50 points
  7. 4* Darius Fleming, Notre Dame - Drafted Round 5 to the San Francisco 49ers
    25 points
  8. 4* Lynn Katoa, Colorado - Undrafted
    -40 points
  9. 4* Nigel Carr, Florida State (transferred to Alabama State) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  10. 4* Jon Major, Colorado - Undrafted
    -40 points
  11. 4* Brendan Beal, Florida (transferred to Minnesota)
    Incomplete, currently playing for Minnesota
  12. 4* Uona Kaveinga, Southern Cal - Undrafted
    -40 points
  13. 4* Steve Filer, Notre Dame - Undrafted
    -40 points
  14. 4* Lerentee McCray, Florida - Undrafted
    -40 points
  15. 4* Courtney Upshaw, Alabama - Drafted Round 2 to the Baltimore Ravens
    60 points
  16. 4* Kenny Tate, Maryland - Undrafted
    -40 points
  17. 4* Andrew Sweat, Ohio State - Undrafted
    -40 points
Defensive Backs .078 (90 points out of a possible 1150)
  1. 5* Will Hill, Florida - Undrafted
    -50 points
  2. 5* Patrick Peterson, LSU - Drafted Round 1 to the Arizona Cardinals
    100 points
  3. 5* Brandon Harris, Miami - Drafted Round 2 to the Houston Texans
    75 points
  4. 5* B.J. Scott, Alabama (transferred to South Alabama) - Undrafted
    -50 points
  5. 4* Rahim Moore, UCLA - Drafted Round 2 to the Denver Broncos
    60 points
  6. 4* T.J. Bryant, Southern Cal (transferred to Troy) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  7. 4* Janoris Jenkins, Florida (transferred to North Alabama) - Drafted Round 2 to the St. Louis Rams
    60 points
  8. 4* Dee Finley, Florida (transferred to Indiana) - Undrafted
    -40 points
  9. 4* Robert Golden, Arizona - Undrafted
    -40 points
  10. 4* C.C. Whitlock, South Carolina - Undrafted
    -40 points
  11. 4* Mark Barron, Alabama - Drafted Round 1 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    75 points
  12. 4* De'Anthony Curtis, Arkansas - Undrafted
    -40 points
  13. 4* Aaron Williams, Texas - Drafted Round 2 to the Buffalo Bills
    60 points
  14. 4* E.J. Woods, UCLA (transferred to Santa Monica College) - Undrafted
    -40 points
Athletes -.533 (-80 points out of a possible 150)
  1. 4* Gerrell Robinson, Arizona State - Undrafted
    -40 points
  2. 4* Derrick Hall, Texas A&M - Undrafted
    -40 points
CONCLUSION
Not surprisingly, Quarterback is the easiest position to project at High School into the NFL, Discounting "Athletes" due to the small sample size, the position in which they have the most difficulty projecting to the NFL is Linebacker and Tight End, even though the math says Tight End, I would say given the sample size it is Linebacker. I was also surprised about the number of Wide Receivers that they missed on, even though the Top 5 were spot on as high draft picks. This also tells me too much value is put on a position that requires a lot of nuance in the College game, yet is one in High School a great athlete can dominate at.
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