In the game preview which no one got to read I wrote that FSU needed to do three things in order to win this game. First, they needed to keep Scott Wood from catching fire. I described it like this: Of any player on a top 10 offense, he's the 2nd most likely player to put up a game with an offensive efficiency over 140. He does this in a remarkable 56% of his games, and should he do it versus FSU then it's probably going to be a long night. 80% of his shot attempts come from beyond the arc and he makes 44%.
Wood ended up 0-4 on 2s, 3-5 on 3s, and 4-4 from the line. Combine that with the rest of his stats and he ended the night with an offensive rating of 137. So FSU barely accomplished that goal.
Next, FSU needed to build on the Boston College game by making their 3s. FSU made 50% vs BC, and I set the over/under bar vs NC State at 40%. The Noles ended up 6-18 for 33%, which was a fail. To meet the goal, two more would have had to gone down.
Finally, I noted that NC State was a bizarre offensive rebounding team. Their roster is made up of a bunch of guys who aren't very good at, combined with 6-8 Richard Howell who is the best offensive rebounder in the conference. Keeping NC State at or below their season average in OR% (33%) was the third goal. And here is where FSU failed massively. NCSU had 21 offensive boards for an offensive rebound % of 58%. That gave NC State nine possessions more than the goal I set.
We're now 26 games into the season and this is Leonard Hamilton's worst offensive AND defensive rebounding team in his tenure. This is something that isn't going to be fixed. Announcers like to claim that rebounding is all about effort, and while that's certainly important, there's also an awful lot of technique. There's also a roster component, and FSU just isn't built to rebound. Only three players are that sweet spot for rebounders - 6-8 to 6-10 - two of them are rail thin, and the one who isn't is on the sideline with a neck injury.
Barring a miracle run through the ACC Tournament, this team won't be dancing. Youth and injuries have played a huge role, but those things could have been overcome with better rebounding.
If there is a silver lining it's that Terrance Shannon has been cleared for non-contact practice. Who knows if he'll play again this year, but if he's ready for the ACC Tournament, or whatever potential post season tourney which might follow, his ability to rebound will add a critical component to this team.