FanPost

Log5 of the 2012 CFB Season


Every March I dig into the advanced basketball metrics and every March I come back to Ken Pomeroy's log5 and Pythagorean expected winning percentage. I've used log5 and pythag to fill my brackets for years and in the midst of filling out this years bracket I had a thought: what about log5 for college football? (for more reading on log5 go here, here, here, or here)

I gathered up my data from cfbstats.com, crunched the numbers, and took a gander and the results.

-AdjO and AdjD represent the number of expected points per 100 plays and are opponent adjusted. Yes, Alabama had an incredible offense last year that should have scored nearly 90 points per 100 plays, when adjusted for opponents.

-AdjT is the average number of plays (the tempo) for each team. So even though Alabama had a very potent O, they ranked 116 out of 124 teams in terms of their tempo. Alabama played very slowly.

-Average tempo ranking for the top 10 offenses? 59.1. Playing fast doesn't necessarily mean playing efficiently.

-The retrospective accuracy is actually pretty good. It's sitting right around 79%. Correctly predicting nearly 8 out of every 10 games is pretty good.

-FSU ranked really high, even adjusting for the mediocre opponents FSU faced.

Rank Team Pyth AdjO AdjD AdjT
1 Alabama 0.9882 89.8 2 7.6 1 64.1 116
2 Florida State 0.9688 85.0 4 12.5 6 67.2 91
3 Oregon 0.9482 91.6 1 18.8 18 81.5 9
4 Utah State 0.9463 57.9 26 10.2 4 68.7 76
5 BYU 0.9249 28.1 93 16.3 10 77.2 24
6 Texas A&M 0.9241 82.2 6 18.8 17 78.8 16
7 Notre Dame 0.9211 39.3 66 9.8 2 68.8 75
8 Northern Illinois 0.9108 58.3 25 17.3 15 73.1 44
9 Georgia 0.9080 86.0 3 19.0 21 66.0 102
10 Boise State 0.9070 48.8 45 13.2 7 67.1 93
11 Florida 0.8923 48.3 46 10.1 3 63.6 118
12 Kansas State 0.8771 83.9 5 20.7 24 64.7 111
13 Cincinnati 0.8764 62.2 19 16.4 11 66.4 99
14 South Carolina 0.8720 56.0 31 16.7 12 65.8 105
15 LSU 0.8643 19.9 115 44.8 92 67.9 85
16 Clemson 0.8523 63.0 17 30.5 46 81.7 8
17 San Jose State 0.8473 57.4 27 23.1 26 70.3 62
18 Ohio State 0.8462 70.2 10 25.6 35 69.8 64
19 Oklahoma State 0.8436 80.1 7 24.7 30 78.0 18
20 Stanford 0.8435 41.4 60 13.3 8 67.7 86
21 UCF 0.8397 63.3 16 21.8 25 67.1 95
22 Vanderbilt 0.8397 49.3 42 17.3 16 67.2 90
23 Fresno State 0.8353 55.6 33 24.7 31 77.4 22
24 North Carolina 0.8325 65.7 13 30.2 45 74.8 32
25 Arizona State 0.8319 55.7 32 26.2 38 77.8 20
26 Oregon State 0.8316 54.4 37 20.5 23 72.8 46
27 Wisconsin 0.8208 52.6 39 19.6 22 66.1 100
28 Penn State 0.8138 34.5 74 17.0 13 77.6 21
29 Rutgers 0.8111 27.9 95 10.9 5 63.3 119
30 Michigan 0.8066 59.6 22 23.3 27 63.1 120
31 Oklahoma 0.8046 59.6 23 27.3 42 77.3 23
32 Tulsa 0.7932 40.5 61 25.1 32 82.9 5
33 Arkansas State 0.7766 53.5 38 26.5 39 73.2 43
34 Northwestern 0.7673 49.1 44 25.5 34 74.2 37
35 Bowling Green 0.7492 24.7 102 19.0 20 68.8 72
36 Kent State 0.7408 56.5 29 29.2 43 67.3 88
37 San Diego State 0.7393 54.9 35 27.3 41 68.2 78
38 Louisiana Tech 0.7346 76.4 8 56.0 107 87.8 2
39 USC 0.7253 60.3 21 24.2 29 65.6 107
40 Louisville 0.7205 52.3 40 35.8 60 70.6 60
41 Ohio 0.7032 36.4 70 31.4 48 76.8 26
42 Mississippi State 0.6942 49.3 41 26.2 37 65.2 108
43 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.6937 65.3 14 36.0 61 67.2 92
44 Pittsburgh 0.6935 44.0 55 25.4 33 68.0 82
45 Nebraska 0.6929 64.7 15 37.6 65 74.3 34
46 TCU 0.6869 73.3 9 17.2 14 70.3 62
47 UCLA 0.6851 47.0 49 32.2 52 78.2 17
48 Michigan State 0.6714 19.9 116 15.3 9 73.6 40
49 Texas 0.6680 62.9 18 36.9 63 68.5 77
50 Syracuse 0.6616 40.4 63 33.8 55 79.2 13
51 Baylor 0.6505 70.1 11 39.8 74 82.5 6
52 SMU 0.6467 45.8 51 26.8 40 70.5 61
53 Georgia Tech 0.6456 58.6 24 41.5 78 71.6 53
54 Texas Tech 0.6403 56.1 30 42.4 80 76.4 28
55 Louisiana-Monroe 0.6277 44.1 54 41.6 79 76.1 31
56 Mississippi 0.6122 47.2 47 34.3 56 74.0 38
57 Nevada 0.5984 49.1 43 48.0 97 83.1 4
58 Toledo 0.5912 43.0 56 35.6 59 74.0 38
59 Western Kentucky 0.5871 45.8 52 74.0 117 64.7 111
60 Virginia Tech 0.5808 32.1 84 23.3 28 72.6 48
61 North Carolina State 0.5796 31.2 86 29.8 44 80.0 11
62 Arizona 0.5674 54.9 36 38.0 67 83.2 3
63 Utah 0.5534 40.3 64 32.0 51 66.4 97
64 Rice 0.5521 35.4 71 46.8 94 78.9 15
65 Ball State 0.5430 40.5 62 44.2 88 79.6 12
66 West Virginia 0.5312 61.9 20 72.6 116 77.0 25
67 Miami (Florida) 0.5259 56.6 28 33.2 53 68.2 79
68 Iowa State 0.5222 28.6 91 18.9 19 71.0 57
69 Tennessee 0.5122 67.7 12 47.8 96 74.2 36
70 Troy 0.5024 32.7 81 45.4 93 80.5 10
71 East Carolina 0.4957 42.7 58 44.1 87 72.8 46
72 Washington 0.4944 28.6 89 53.6 105 69.5 67
73 Western Michigan 0.4901 34.0 76 88.0 122 76.3 29
74 Navy 0.4761 32.2 83 34.4 57 67.1 93
75 Marshall 0.4550 46.2 50 67.0 114 90.6 1
76 Middle Tennessee 0.4547 35.1 72 36.2 62 67.7 87
77 Air Force 0.4500 31.5 85 38.8 71 73.5 42
78 Purdue 0.4264 38.6 68 44.8 91 73.6 40
79 Missouri 0.4146 38.6 69 31.7 49 72.3 50
80 Houston 0.4093 33.7 79 40.6 75 82.0 7
81 Connecticut 0.4041 33.8 77 44.0 85 67.3 89
82 Minnesota 0.4033 29.4 88 33.6 54 65.2 109
83 UTSA 0.4019 39.2 67 51.2 101 68.0 82
84 Central Michigan 0.4001 47.2 48 54.7 106 63.7 117
85 Duke 0.3863 44.5 53 59.1 109 76.2 30
86 Indiana 0.3827 39.4 65 56.5 108 77.9 19
87 Texas State 0.3646 42.4 59 44.4 90 64.5 114
88 New Mexico 0.3638 35.1 73 48.6 99 64.8 110
89 Iowa 0.3555 23.3 105 25.7 36 66.1 101
90 Memphis 0.3209 33.8 77 44.0 85 64.3 115
91 Wyoming 0.3169 32.7 82 84.3 121 71.0 57
92 Temple 0.3075 42.9 57 52.6 104 62.6 122
93 Florida International 0.3042 28.1 94 44.3 89 71.5 54
94 Virginia 0.3016 23.2 106 38.6 70 74.3 35
95 Arkansas 0.2884 32.9 80 40.9 77 68.8 73
96 UAB 0.2706 34.0 75 65.3 112 74.6 33
97 North Texas 0.2690 20.1 113 38.6 69 71.1 56
98 South Florida 0.2683 24.8 100 43.4 81 69.7 66
99 Buffalo 0.2636 22.8 107 39.5 72 72.2 51
100 Maryland 0.2578 23.9 103 37.0 64 64.7 113
101 Akron 0.2506 26.3 98 51.8 102 79.0 14
102 UTEP 0.2330 22.2 108 39.5 73 69.3 69
103 Colorado State 0.2227 27.8 96 37.9 66 62.5 123
104 California 0.2189 31.0 87 38.2 68 68.1 81
105 Army 0.2112 25.2 99 75.1 118 76.8 27
106 UNLV 0.2013 24.8 100 43.4 81 70.7 59
107 Boston College 0.1963 22.0 110 31.0 47 68.2 79
108 Miami (Ohio) 0.1961 28.5 92 52.4 103 69.5 68
109 Florida Atlantic 0.1933 22.1 109 48.6 98 68.8 73
110 Auburn 0.1884 27.7 97 34.6 58 57.9 124
111 South Alabama 0.1630 15.2 122 43.6 83 72.2 52
112 Washington State 0.1480 20.0 114 89.4 123 73.0 45
113 Hawai'i 0.1387 55.3 34 43.6 84 69.8 64
114 Wake Forest 0.1302 18.7 118 65.8 113 69.1 70
115 Kentucky 0.1280 20.4 111 40.7 76 65.8 106
116 Eastern Michigan 0.1211 28.6 90 64.3 111 63.0 121
117 Tulane 0.1145 23.7 104 59.9 110 68.0 82
118 Southern Mississippi 0.0920 20.4 112 31.8 50 65.9 103
119 Illinois 0.0918 16.5 120 49.3 100 66.4 97
120 Kansas 0.0843 15.6 121 47.6 95 72.6 49
121 New Mexico State 0.0681 18.8 117 71.5 115 65.9 103
122 Colorado 0.0350 17.6 119 97.3 124 69.1 70
123 Idaho 0.0308 13.8 123 77.7 120 66.6 96
124 Massachusetts 0.0173 8.1 124 75.5 119 71.2 55



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