Week 4 was an awesome week for the ACC. In the games it controlled it hit the perfect score with every team that should have won winning. OOC games where not as kind but no negative killers just not big positive bumps that would help all that much. UCONN pulling off the upset would have been huge for Maryland and the ACC in the computers and it would have been nice to have BYU win as this does nothing but help the Pac increase its lead as a conference in the computers but at the same time it does push the B12 further behind the ACC which is bunched up with the B1G and SEC.
I want to take a paragraph to explain better what I am trying to do. Until Oct 14th when the last computer poll goes public I am looking mostly at what will increase FSU and the ACC points in the computers. After Oct 14th I will start to care most about the ranking of the ACC in the computers. To try to explain this a bit better think of a football game. In the first 2 to 3 quarters it is all about getting the most points and smart decision making is about maximizing the points you are putting on the board. But, in the 4th quarter this changes to maximizing your chances of winning. Points don't matter as much at this point as clock management for example or if you are up say 6 points with 1:30 on the clock a field goal is worth nearly as much as a TD because its 2 scores either way.
Given what I am doing now you will see me for example calling for Alabama wins to help the ACC. I know that at the end of the year Alabama undefeated is bad for FSU and the ACC because the humans polls will have them far enough ahead that FSU or any other ACC team has no chance to catch them despite most likely being higher in the computers. The same goes for Oregon who if they run the table will be number 1 across the board in the computer rankings
I would also like to note that I do make a couple of big assumptions but if I didn't it would be nearly impossible to do this. I assume that there won't be any huge upsets and that team play right is how they will play the rest of the season. By huge upset its kind of a sliding scale if the number 2 and number 7 teams play and 7 wins its not a huge upset. Now if number 17 and number 49 play and 49 wins it is. If number 2 and number 22 play and 22 wins it is a big upset while if 52 and 72 plays and 72 wins its not as big of an upset. The reason is the points not the rankings. The computers basically treat all the teams as a diamond where a small number of teams are at the top and bottom and most teams are towards the middle. Basically their is that much difference between 40-70 as their is between 1-20.
The good news for me in predicting the computers is most of the OOC games in the AQ are done or will be this weekend. I can now give a pretty good predication on how the conferences are going to rank in the computers.
The Big 12 for example plays its last 3 OOC games this weekend. I can safely say that the B12 is going to be last in most of the computer polls and by a good margin. Really the only thing that can close this to a degree is if OU beats ND and ND wins 10 games. There is no B12 team that can finish ahead of an undefeated ACC school.
The B1G only has 2 OOC games left and both this weekend. Right now the computers have the ACC and B1G roughly equal. If NIU wins as they should at Purdue the ACC should stay ahead of them throughout the rest of the year. Michigan is the only B1G school that has a chance of finishing ahead of an undefeated FSU but it would require some decent upsets namely ND going undefeated from here on out plus some other things to bounce their way.
The only OOC left for the Pac are its 3 games against ND. They win 2 out of 3 and they are a lock for the best conference of the year. Even 1 out of 3 should be enough. If ND does win all 3 the Pac at worst would be just behind the number 1 conference of the year. An undefeated Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, or UCLA is all but a lock for the number 1 in the computers and even (it wont happen but to be a completest) Colorado would likely be number 1 or 2 in the computers. It would require a lot of major upsets for an undefeated Pac champion not to finish the season 2nd let alone 1st in the computers. FSU and ACC fans really should hope ND runs the table here and OU and Stanford beats Washington and Oregon.
The ACC and SEC both have a bunch of OOC games left. Right now these are the only 2 conferences with any chance of catching the Pac 12 for number 1 conference or even closing the gap. The computers right now have the SEC with a very small edge in conference strength but it really is meaningless. The good news in the computer front is the only SEC team right now that can finish ahead of FSU/Clemson barring major upsets is LSU. FSU will be ahead of Bama in at least 4 computers and likely 5.
On to this weeks games
In conference and again computer only
VT @ GT does not really matter who wins. They are roughly equal and the winner should be top 20 in the computers.
UVA @ Pitt for FSU Pitt winning is much better. A Pitt loss though is not the end of the world by any means though as the computers basically have them even.
FSU @ BC yeah this would be a horrible loss
WF @ Clemson if Clemson goes Clemson just send them to the AAC it would be that bad of a loss for the ACC.
E Carolina @ UNC ECU is actually ranked higher in the computers so this would be very good win
Troy @ Duke Not much difference in the computers but Duke needs to win
CMU @ NCST this would be a horrible loss for the ACC if CMU won
Miami @ USF again this would be a horrible loss for the ACC if USF won
Other major games of note
Okie St @ WVU a WVU win would kill the B12 in the computers to the point it would take so many crazy upsets for the B12 champ to be even close to the ACC champ
LSU @ UGA UGA win would be huge for the ACC. It would give FSU/Clemson winner the inside track over every SEC school in the computers.
OU @ ND ND win would guarantee a huge gap between the B12 and who ever ends up 4th in the conference rankings. Basically FSU fans should hope ND wins out except to Pitt as they are the 1 team outside of the ACC that their winning has the most positive effect for the ACC even if they do beat Pitt
I will try to do an overview of the different computer methodologies and how they effect the ACC and FSU in the next couple of days if not it will be done by next week.