Simple, really. Florida State has more talent.
Now, before you blow up the comments section with "we already knew that" comments, let's look at history for a moment. Recent history. Extremely...recent history.
Does anyone remember the BCS National Championship Game last year? Alabama and Notre Dame. It was billed as a great matchup. An undefeated #1-ranked Notre Dame team goes against a dynasty team with one loss. Of course we remember it...because we changed the channel to re-runs of CSI or infomercials at halftime because they were more entertaining to watch than the game. Alabama just blew Notre Dame off the field. But why is that? How did the #2-ranked team beat the "mighty" undefeated Fighting Irish by such a large margin? Talent. But also because luck doesn't win the big games (maybe a few regular season games, but not in the postseason).
Let's go back to the days leading up to the 2013 BCS National Championship Game. All of the media pundits on ESecPN were talking about how Alabama was just a loaded team and they were going to just run the ball all over Notre Dame. But, for the sake of argument, they mentioned the only two things they could come up with as positives for Notre Dame: Manti Teo and "the luck of the Irish." We all know that one person and luck can't beat an entire team. Pay close attention to what you hear in the media, and you'll hear the exact same things this year: Nick Marshall, Tre Mason and how lucky Auburn has been.
But let's look at the numbers (since that's what we do here at Tomahawk Nation):
Last year (2012), Notre Dame went undefeated by winning by 3 against Purdue, 7 against Michigan, 7 against Stanford (in OT), 3 against BYU, and 3 against Pitt (in 3OT). And then they were beaten soundly by 28 against a one-loss Alabama. But they were lucky, right!
Now let's look at this year's Auburn. They won by 7 against Washington St., 4 against Mississippi St., 8 against Ole Miss, 4 against Texas A&M, 5 against Georgia, and 6 against Alabama. And their last two wins were on...well, you know by now how they won those games...luck.
Obviously, there are a lot of things that factor into winning the big game...coaching, game-planning, execution, talent, and yes, luck. I just see too many similarities in this year's game compared to last year's game to make me think that Auburn is going to win this game. ESecPN is saying that Auburn's run game is great and they're lucky. But that's about all they are saying. Sure, their run game is great...because they ALWAYS run the ball! For Florida State, they are having to mention a weak schedule as the only negative for them...a weak schedule that was dominated.
After what Oklahoma was able to do to Alabama last night, I just don't see Auburn winning this game.
Prediction: FSU 42 - Auburn 28