Florida State v. Auburn: The sharp prop bets for the BCS, plus Tigers as a public underdog

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Todd Fuhrman, Adam Kramer, Drew Collins and myself are back with another edition of the On The Line Podcast. We are all taking Florida State -9, and Fuhrman, who used to set the lines for Caesar's Sportsbook, said that he cannot remember a game of this magnitude in which the public is so heavily backing the underdog, while the professionals are on the favorite (the public likes Auburn even more than it liked Notre Dame against Alabama). The public generally backs favorites, and the professionals usually like underdogs. When the scenario flips, which isn't often, is has historically been a bloodbath for the public.

None of us like the Over, which is set at about 68 at most shops. Some like the Under, but perhaps not as much as the side.

Listen to the entire episode here. Below, I list the prop bets I liked. The selection is in bold.

LONGEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME:
(*IF NO TD IS SCORED, ALL BETS ARE REFUNDED)
OVER 59.5 -110 | UNDER 59.5 -110

I like the over here because I think FSU will dare Auburn to make plays down the field with the passing game against single coverage, and I think FSU's ability to hit big runs with Karlos Williams is underrated. Also, Jameis Winston.

LONGEST COMPLETION BY: NICK MARSHALL* (AUBURN)
(*MUST PLAY) **(If no Completions--Under is the winner)
OVER 38.5 -110 | UNDER 38.5 -110

Over, on the same theory from above.

LONGEST RUSH BY: TRE MASON* (AUBURN)
(*MUST PLAY)
**(If no Rushing Attempt--Under is the winner)
OVER 23.5 -110 | UNDER 23.5 -110

But if I could find a prop on a general "longest Auburn rush," I would rather play the under on that.

TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY: JAMEIS WINSTON* (FSU)
(*MUST PLAY)
OVER 20.0 -110 | UNDER 20.0 -110

I look for Winston to check the ball down a lot on shorter routes against Auburn's softer coverage.

LONGEST COMPLETION BY: JAMEIS WINSTON* (FSU)
(*MUST PLAY)
**(If no Completions--Under is the winner)
OVER 48.5 -110 | UNDER 48.5 -110

I expect Auburn to play a lot of soft coverage, like Miami did.

TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: DEVONTA FREEMAN* (FSU)
(*MUST PLAY)
OVER 90.5 -110 | UNDER 90.5 -110

I like Freeman, but anticipate more use by all backs, and more running by Winston.

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