FanPost

Statistical difference between Oregon/FSU. Same storyline, different players? Maybe.

So we have 3 weeks off until the Jan. 1st Rose Bowl game and both FSU fans and Oregon fans are starting to get a bit more rabid. Neither side wants to admit something negative about their team or think their team loses.

I know Marcus Mariota is a stud but I am still just not sold on the 'Oregon system' and also not sure why FSU's defense gets such a bad rap--especially when we can turn back the clock to 2010 and see some very similar trends.

Oregon has an explosive offense. I don't think anyone in the country disputes that. But are they so much better in 2014 than they were in 2010?

G R. Yards P. Yards T. Plays T. Yards YPP YPG

2010 All Games 13 3739 3160 1024 6899 6.74 530.7
2014 All Games
13 3085 4016 966 7101 7.35

546.2

So just looking at this chart we can see that Oregon ran the ball much more in 2010 than in 2014 and throw it better in 2014. YPP is ~ 1/2 yard better in 2014 and total yards per game are pretty close. Big numbers from the offense. But in 2010 the fast paced, huge numbered Ducks offense got shut down to 19 points in the National Championship game against Auburn. Let's take a look at Auburn's defense:

G Rush Pass TP TYA YPP TPG

All Games 14 1527 3630 963 5157 5.36 368.4 Auburn 2010 defense

By these metrics, Auburn's defense was flawed. Giving up over 5.36 YPP and getting pretty torched through the air during the season. They were able to out muscle Oregon at the LOS and throw them out of rhythm. Now I know Oregon has gotten bigger and nastier, but Auburn had a 1st round draft pick at DT that made the OL's night a living hell.

Now let's look at FSU from this year:

All Games 13 2081 2837 927 4918 5.31 378.3 FSU 2014 defense

So FSU's defense hasn't been up to it's normal self as it is giving up a full yard and a quarter per play more than they were last year, but the similarities to the 2010 Auburn team and 2014 are there. Give up a ton of YPP but have a 1st round draft pick at DT, who can make life a living hell when he wants to.

I get it, Mariota is the X-factor, the guy that FSU cannot stop and he will pick them apart. But this almost exact situation played out in 2010. An 'average' Auburn defense trying to stop the high powered Ducks offense. A team under Chip Kelly which as a whole is better than Helfrich at the helm.

Now the flip side. Oregon's defense trying to stop FSU's offense. Now I didn't go research PAC12's offenses back in 2010 but here is how Oregon compares in 2010 to 2014:

All Games 13 2005 3374 997 5379 5.40 413.8 2014 Ore. D
All Games 13 1665 2833 963 4498 4.67 346.0 2010 Ore. D

So the 2010 team was almost a full yard better per play than the 2014--who is supposed to be tougher, bigger, stronger. Now they probably are bigger and stronger--but the D had much better numbers in 2010.

What does it all mean? Who knows. But the 2014 Oregon team has it's best player in history playing on it, the yards come differently but overall it still looks very similar to 2010. The 2014 FSU defense has under-performed but the same could be said for the 2010 Auburn defense and they got the job done. I am not saying FSU will stop them but parallels can be drawn from the past games. So for people to think it is so far fetched that FSU's D can slow down the Oregon attack, just look to 2010.

Just one little dig. Mariota is supposed to be light years better than Darron Thomas but Thomas as a sophomore completed 61% of his passes, for 2800 yards, 30 TD's and 9 INT's. Now there is that great TD/INT ratio. Now I think most Oregon fans wouldn't claim Thomas as a pure QB, but please tell me how the system doesn't make guys look great beyond their years?

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