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A Worry-wort's 2014 Schedule Analysis

First note again, that this schedule analysis takes in no "metrics" but rather relies on common sense, historical references, and just a little of the "gut feeling". I wear garnet and gold glasses, tempered with reality, and scratched by past disappointments. I'm as optimistic as any other FSU fan out there, but also realize the fact that "Back to Back" almost never happens. Also, the BCS Championship game was a pretty cold splash of water the first 25 minutes.. Reality that we CAN play poorly.

I read the early line projections, and couldn't help but think "Bet against FSU across the board" the lines looked so skewed to overvalue my beloved Noles.... Last year's 11-2-1 record against the spread is a bit of an anomaly.

Here's my 2014 Schedule analysis and worry level (0 to 10, 10 being most worried) for each game.

Oklahoma State- Worry level 6.... Pretty confident OSU will have their hands full on defense, and that we'll have a good game plan. My worry comes from: They rushed an average of 39 times a game, and get back their top rusher, and still have 3 SR's on offensive line. IF we're going to have an achilles heel on defense, it will be against the run... Being in Dallas will have a good OSU fan contingency, and will be motivated. I can easily see this being a high scoring game.

The Citadel- Worry level 0

Clemson- Worry level 8.... Glad we get them early, but Chad Morris is a VERY good OC, and they'll pull out every trick in the book. The fact we have them at home is good. IF Clemson upsets UGA, then I think we'll be very motivated, but should they lose to the Bulldogs, I"m worried about our metal state. They'll have the best defensive line we'll face by far, and an overall good defense...and you KNOW they'll be motivated after last year... the question is.. will we?

at NC State- Worry level 3... They're not a good team, but we play poorly in Raleigh, and the week following an emotional game against Clemson is a good time for them to catch us.

Wake Forest- Worry level 0

at Syracuse- Worry level 5... The week before Notre Dame. Syracuse returns 15 starters from a team that won their bowl game last year, and playing in the dome all adds up to "I'm half worried about this game!". It will be interesting to see their record...they play Maryland, Notre Dame, and Louisville in the previous 3 games.

Notre Dame- Worry level 6... Fans travel unbelievably well, and makes for a surreal home environment. Stronger team than they were last year, they'll be coming off back to back home games against Stanford and UNC. I'm a little less worried about this game due to the fact that we would be really motivated for this one.

at Louisville- Worry level 4.... Thursday Night games are always surprising, but having the week off, regardless of what has happened to either team up to this point should have us ready to roll. I could see a high scoring game here, but the Cardinals defense won't be able to slow us down I don't think.

Virginia- Worry level 1... We lost to them last time they visited... I"m pretty sure we won't let that happen again.

at Miami- Worry level 10.... I know... the "Metrics" say we should bet FSU big, but this game really worries me... especially if we are undefeated as we expect to be. The QB Question for Miami will be answered by Nov. 15th. They'll have the best running game we'll face, which can cut down our offensive possessions. They'll have 9 upperclassmen starting on defense, and they're frickin' MIAMI... after 4 straight losses, they have this game as the bell-cow matchup for their program. But mainly this will be THE game to knock off the #1 team... It seems to happen every year about this point in the season where a top team has a let down and loses... Oregon vs. Stanford last year as an example, Alabama vs. Texas A&M the year before. It's just what happens in College Football.

Boston College- Worry level 2.... Win or lose vs. Miami, we'll be motivated for this one.

Florida- Worry Level 4... or 10... .depends on the Florida season. If they're 6-5 at this point, and the team has checked out on Muschump, we'll curb-stomp them... but IF they've come together, have Driskel playing well within the new Kurt Roper system, and Muschamp's defense actually has reason to play, watch out for the Gators....they have as many "stars" on their roster as we do, and any time you have a really good defense, you have a chance.

Maybe you have a different level of worry... but my order of "IF we lose, it will be to...."

Miami, Clemson, Florida, Notre Dame.... which in general is a good sign of our schedule that 3 of our 4 "toughest" games are at home.

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