FanPost

FSU Women's Basketball Update

The Florida State Women’s basketball team entered the NCAA Tournament with a #2 seed, a gaudy record (29-4), and a top 10 national ranking. However, the team was coming off a 71-58 loss to #2 Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game. Losing to an elite team like Notre Dame is hardly a cause for shame but the Seminoles looked out of sorts for most of game and the game really wasn’t as close as the score indicated.

The Noles had 13 days to stew over their loss while waiting for the NCAA Tournament to begin. It seems like those days were put to good use as it looks like FSU has its mojo back. Now is the time that assertion will be tested because we are now at the point where this tournament gets real. Gone are the home court advantages, overmatched teams, and double digit seeds (except for #11 Gonzaga). Now everyone has proven that they can play and FSU will have to bring its A-game to continue to advance.

We will take a brief look at how the Noles have advanced to the Sweet 16 and then we will look forward to their next opponent, Arizona State, before we end with a quick look around the rest of the tournament.

Tournament Recap

FSU began the tournament against #15 seed Alabama State (17-14) the SWAC Champions. FSU got off to a bit of a slow start but then Shakayla Thomas entered the game and provided a spark. Thomas scored 13 first half points on 5 of 8 FG shooting as ASU had no answer for her superior athleticism. The Noles built a 37-19 halftime lead and cruised from there to a 91-49 victory. There really isn’t much to say about a 40+ point rout. The Noles have considerably more talent than the Hornets and it would have taken something truly extraordinary, especially in Tallahassee, for them to lose this game.

A quick note about Thomas; the freshman has really developed over the course of the season. There are times during games where she seems to overwhelm opponents with her athleticism. She also plays with a passion that is rarely seen. The Philadelphia Eagles had a safety from 1996-2008 named Brian Dawkins. His nickname was Weapon X because of the passion with which he played the game. When Thomas really starts rolling she reminds me of Weapon X. The sky is really the limit for this kid.

Next up for FSU was #7 seed Florida Gulf Coast (31-2) ranked #20 in the nation. Gulf Coast, the Atlantic Sun Champions, were riding a 26 game winning streak. The Eagles are led by former Duke commit Whitney Knight and super quick guard Kaneisha Atwater. They play a very unorthodox style relying almost exclusively on 3 pointers and spreading out the defense for dribble drive layups. This strategy worked to perfection in their opening game 75-67 win over Oklahoma State.

The challenge for the Noles was to try to stay in front of Atwater to limit her dribble drive opportunities while staying connected to her teammates hovering at the three point line. At half the Eagles were 5-10 from three point land and only trailed 36-28. The Noles dominated the boards and executed their "Horns" set repeatedly for easy looks to build the lead. FGCU did a good job of recovering from a fast start by FSU to keep the game close until halftime. The second half was a different story however as the Eagles went cold from 3 point range (2-15) and FSU capitalized for a 65-47 victory.

Overall, the Tallahassee Regional can only be called a success. The Tallahassee community really came out to support the Noles. Coach Sue Semrau made a point of trying to increase attendance by reaching out to community and business leaders. Her efforts were rewarded with a reported attendance of 5,536 for the Alabama State game and 4,772 attendance on a Monday evening for the Florida Gulf Coast game. It is unrealistic to expect those types of crowds for regular season games next year but any kind of uptick in the attendance numbers will be a boon to the program going forward. Hopefully some new fans were made last weekend.

Outlook

Now FSU turns its attention to the Sweet 16 in Greensboro. First up will be the #3 seed (#9 in AP & Coaches) Arizona State Sun Devils (29-5) who came back from a double digit deficit to slip by the University of Arkansas Little-Rock 57-54. The Sun Devils used a 24-8 run at the end of the game to win it.

The Sun Devils present a completely different challenge from FGCU. ASU tries to pound the ball inside on nearly every possession. They feature 6’1 Sophie Brunner and 6’0 Kelsey Moos in the post. Both players play bigger than their size. Against UALR, Brunner had 17 pts and 11 rebounds while Moos chipped in with 10 more boards. ASU wants at least one of these players – most likely Brunner - to touch the ball on each half court possession. They rely on guard Promise Amukamara (sister of New York Giants DB Prince Amukamara) to push the pace when there is an opportunity but this offense does not rely on transition baskets. They also don’t take many three pointers. They need Brunner to score in the post or kick it back out for open shots.

The task for FSU is to defend these post players without fouling. The best way for the Sun Devils to win would be for Adut Bulgak to get into foul trouble. This would force FSU to sacrifice size by bringing in Morgan Jones or sacrifice offense by bringing in Kai James. Of course both of these players are former McDonald’s All Americans so they aren’t exactly scrubs.

FSU has several advantages on paper going into this game. Both Brunner and Moos are rugged inside but neither one is particularly athletic. They had difficulty keeping Little Rock off of the offensive boards before UALR ran out of gas at the end of the game. Little Rock has athletic post players but they lack size. FSU has post players that are big and athletic. The Noles should have a sizable advantage on the boards. ASU will also likely struggle to defend FSU. The Noles can spread the court under the direction of Leticia Romero who will find open shooters. Finally, I don’t see anyone on Arizona State’s roster who I trust to match up with Weapon X (Thomas).

FSU is a bad matchup for Arizona State and I expect the Noles to take this game.

Elsewhere

The winner of ASU/FSU will play either #1 seed South Carolina or #4 seed North Carolina in the Elite Eight. It will be interesting to see which school has more fans at the game. UNC is geographically closer but SCAR gets phenomenal crowd support routinely drawing 12,000 + fans for regular season games. Coach Dawn Staley is taking that program to another level.

Princeton lost on Maryland’s home court but that shouldn’t detract from their great season. Despite the loss, I adhere to the view that they were under seeded. I would have had them on the 5 or 6 line.

Finally, UConn continues to rampage through this tournament. Should we be asking if they can hang with WNBA teams the way people were saying that Kentucky could beat the Sixers? Thanks committee for putting them on the other side of the bracket. (Just kidding, I know pros are superior to college kids).




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