Florida State had 11 players drafted in the 2015 NFL draft, bringing the three-year total from 2013-2015 to a record 29 players. This was the tenth time in history, all since 2001, that a school lost at least 25 players to the NFL draft in a three-year period (Modern draft, 1994-on). The good news for FSU fans: every school that accomplished the feat won at least eight games in the successive season.
Those teams, including their final record following year three, are USC from 2006-2008 (12-1), 2007-2009 (9-4), 2008-2010 (8-5), and 2009-2011 (10-2), Ohio State from 2002-2004 (8-4) and 2004-2006 (12-1), Miami (FL) from 2001-2003 (11-2) and 2002-2004 (9-3), and Alabama from 2012-2014 (12-2).
Of those teams, the worst record following the three-year span was USC who went 8-5 in 2010. The best performance was Ohio State in 2006 when they went 12-1, including a perfect regular season. Teams, on average, had 10.1 wins following year-three of the draft span, including bowl and conference title games. This shows us that Florida State's streak of 33 consecutive bowl games, which is the longest active streak in the NCAA and two behind Nebraska for the record, is probably not in jeopardy.
Most of the teams did well in the postseason after year three. In total, teams went a combined 7-2 in bowl/playoff games, however those two losses came in prestigious events. One of the losses came in the National Championship Game (2006 Ohio State) with the other occurred in the first round of the newly installed college football playoffs (2014 Alabama). Of the seven wins, two included BCS bowl wins (2003 Miami Orange Bowl, 2008 USC Rose Bowl). While the sample set is small, it seems that it might have taken some time for teams to gel, but the talent was shining through later in the season.
FSU will probably play at most three ranked teams this season. Teams who have faced three or less ranked opponents went 8-4, 8-5, and 10-2 following the three-year period, which is right around where FSU should finish. Florida State's 2015 schedule is built for the "rebuilding" of the team, and is in their favor.
So what does this all mean for Florida State in the 2015 season?
Florida State is a very young team with a lot of upside, but also much uncertainty. Last season there was Jameis Winston, Rashad Greene and Nick O'Leary to teach and lead the young freshman who will now be in the spotlight this coming season. They will not have the luxury of looking up to them to learn or ask questions mid-game any more; as they have become the veterans, it is all up to them. On the defensive side, although there were losses to a very thin defensive backfield, the Noles picked up some great recruits in Tarvarus McFadden and Derwin James who have Jalen Ramsey to look up upon for help and advice as they prepare to be the future leaders of the FSU defense.
Looking back on history, this team is most comparable to the 2010 USC team which finished the season with an 8-5 record. USC finished 2010 with a top recruiting class, played three ranked teams, and was ranked #14 pre season. The Trojans lost 28 players in total from 2008-2010, which is the record that Florida State beat. The Trojans went from 12-1 in 2008 to 9-4 in 2009, then 8-5 in 2008, which is a similar pattern in quality, though not in record, of FSU going from 14-0 and ridiculously dominant to 13-1 and decidedly less dominant, then losing even more elite players to the draft. In both cases, the decline started the year before.
The success by teams after losing many players to the NFL is encouraging for the 2015 Florida State Team. Although 29 players have left Florida State, history shows that teams who recruit well enough to send 29 players to the league in 3 years don't just fall off a cliff. History says that the Seminoles should absolutely extend the bowl streak, have at least eight wins and, if all of the talented, but inexperienced youth can gel earlier than expected, perhaps do much more.