When Jimbo Fisher was named head coach in waiting in the December of 2007, many fans - especially younger alumni - were given reason to hope. Not so much in Jimbo Fisher, whose 59th-ranked offense (S&P+) on the year was actually worse than the year's before (41st). But, rather, hope in ending Bowden's reign of a lost decade after a previous decade of dominance and starting anew.
A national championship, playoff berth, 56 wins (29 of which were consecutive), 6-1 vs. the SEC, 3 ACC championships, and an NFL-record 29 draft picks over a 3-year period later, Jimbo Fisher is dominating a decade of his own.
With those accolades, however, come increased expectations.
Original expectations set by Tomahawk Nation for Jimbo Fisher were steep, asking 36-12 in the regular season and 25-7 in-conference over his first four years. Both of those win percentages (.750 and .782, respectively) are right around Bowden's all-time winning percentage at FSU (.760). And FSU was just coming off of a 4-year stretch of 27-21 (.563) in the regular season, and a completely amateurish 16-16 (.500) in-conference. So again, the expectations were extraordinarily steep.
And Jimbo did not disappoint.
In his first four years at FSU as a head coach, Fisher went 39-9 (.813) in the regular season and 26-6 (.813) in conference. Including last year, those numbers are 51-9 (.850) and 34-6 (.850). That is an insane rate that features in large part a generational QB in Jameis Winston. So while the recruitment and development of top talent headed to the NFL is primed to continue, repeating a Jameis Winston isn't.
So what are the new expectations from Tomahawk Nation for Jimbo Fisher in light of his success?
Actually, not that much different than the previous expectations:
- 39 regular-season wins
- 26 in-conference wins
- A playoff berth once every four years.
In short, don't lose 10 regular season games over 4 years. You'll notice that the expectations are higher than the original expectations but equivalent to Jimbo's pace from 2010-2013.
In conference, of note we see Clemson, Miami, and Louisville 4 times each. FSU should go 2-2, 3-1, and 3-1. That's 4 losses with a toss-up (at GT) and a random-ass loss that isn't that improbable (i.e., at NCSU) to set up a 26-6 run.
Out of conference, we see UF 4 times; and Bama, Notre Dame, & Ole Miss once each. FSU should go 3-1 against the gates, and the rest (Bama, ND, Ole Miss) are basically a toss-up. That's roughly 2-3 losses from those games. Three losses would put FSU at 39-9 over four years.
Regarding the playoff berth, many cosmic forces have to align to avoid being maligned by our conference affiliation (unjust or just). But FSU optimally needs to go 8-0 in conference, beat Florida, and win the ACCCG to make the playoffs. While being undefeated would guarantee a playoff spot, an out-of-conference loss early in the season - say, to Alabama to open the 2017 season - shouldn't derail their chances.
Jimbo has once met - and exceeded - lofty expectations. Can he do it again?