FanPost

The talent gap in elite recruiting among the Big 3 in Florida

There has been a talent gap in the state of Florida between FSU and its rivals UF and UM for some time now that has continued to grow each successive recruiting cycle. The talent gap between FSU and UM has been well known for sometime. However fewer FSU fans are aware that there now exist a gap just as big between FSU and UF. And that gap is huge. As you can see below FSU has recruited blue chip prospects to Tallahassee at twice the level of UF and UM the last 3 cycle!

2014
FSU- 16
UF- 9
UM- 8

2015
FSU-14
UF- 5
UM- 6

2016
FSU-18
UF- 9
UM- 10

Total
FSU- 48
UF- 23
UM- 24


These numbers may seem shocking considering you may have heard from some commentators that UF is a decent QB or a good recruiting class away from being back on top. But the numbers don't bear out that outcome. The fact is UM and UF are both about two dozen blue chip athletes away from matching FSU's level of talent the next several seasons. And that is once UF and UM are able to get on FSU's level of recruiting elite talent.
Many gave McElwain a pass last season for UF's poor final class because it was a so-called transition class. (Though Richt at what should be considered a weaker program in UM didn't have near as poor of a showing this cycle.) Even at that time UF was in a big hole and really needed a homerun class this last cycle (while also hoping FSU had an unusually weak class) and that simple didn't happen. In fact the opposite happened.

Where things stand now the current gap looks almost insurmountable with the way FSU has recruited under Fisher. Rather they quickly bridging the gap, UF and UM's best bet is to try and match FSU's level of blue chip acquisition and then essentially wait for FSU's disproportionate talent richer classes to transition through, which would happen in phases (as guys leave for the draft or graduate over a 3-5 year.

Yesterday when interviewed after the announcements of Manuel and Dickerson Jimbo was quick to point out that everything still starts up front and building the lines has to be a priority to have a championship caliber team. I also think these positions have a longer term impact on a team since in general the guys in the trenches take longer to develop, especially when talking about O-linemen. With that in mind let's take a look at how each school has done recruiting blue chip talent over the last 3 cycles.:

OLs
FSU- 8
UF- 2
UM- 4

DLs
FSU- 9
UF- 6
UM- 5

As you can see, FSU has absolutely dominated in terms of recruitment of elite OL prospects, recruiting them at twice the rate of UM and four times the rate of UF! And while I agree that there is a lower correlation between OL recruiting rankings and actual performance, the correlation is still plenty significant as teams like Bama and to a lesser extent ND's OL recruiting has shown. I would argue that blue chip OLs are not only more likely to become at minimum solid starters but also much more likely to become All Conference level performers. I said it last cycle after UF was only able to add Martez Ivey to a bunch of mostly low rated 3*s with weak offer sheets, that UF was going to have to land some elite talent to supplement all the bodies they picked up the cycle before. UF absolutely failed to hit that mark, as they didn't land a single blue chip prospect on the OL this cycle. They are getting to the point now where they have a bunch of guys who probably aren't P5 power caliber players taking up roster space the next several years. This of course is obviously good news for FSU fans.

FSU still has the edge when talking about elite DL recruitment, though not quite at the level we saw on the O-line. I think averaging 3 or more elite DL prospects a cycle is probably right where a team needs to be to build a deep functional rotation of elite D-linemen to compete on the national level. (For the record, one of the more talented of UF's 6 blue chip DL prospects from the last three cycles, Gerald Willis, transferred to UM and is actually eligible to play for them this next season.) From this last cycle, the buzz from the outset was that the DL class in Florida was weak, particularly at DT. FSU really ended up making lemonade out of lemons with the situation at DT this last cycle by grabbing the two instate 4* prospects while at the same time shutting out both UF and UM. And down the road that may end up storyline that wasn't focused on much at the time given the value most place on the position.

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