Tuesday night I was really annoyed at the massive amount of criticism being launched at the Noles for committing penalties.  I have always believed that penalties aren't a big deal and often reflect the aggression level of the offending team.  Simply put, teams committing penalties usually act in a certain way and get away with a lot of the offending conduct as well.  Officials are loath to call a hugely disproportionate amount of penalties on one team.  As such, it is beneficial to play more aggressively than your opponent, knowing that the less aggressive team will probably suffer the unfortunate consequence of the ref's subconscious desire to seem fair, and be flagged for less egregious offenses.

If you haven't read Part One, please do so before proceeding. 

Part deux after the jump

Continue reading this post »

Grading the 'Noles

General Offensive Goals: 6YPP, no personal foul late hits or unnecessary roughness, 60+% TD's in the red zone, 100% scoring in the red zone.

Offense: B

We ended up with 5.6YPP, One personal foul (Carr), 50% Red Zone TD;s, and 100% Red Zone scoring.  Overall, missing the YPP goal by 10%, and Committing the penalty weren't horrible, but the 'Noles needed to be better in this game.

Quarterback: B

The "A" Line for the Seminole QB's: 8.0 YARDS/ ATTEMPT and a 2-1 TD/ Int ratio.

I know what you are thinking.  He did miss those goals.  10-22 for 120 isn't special at all.  Please allow me to explain: look at the wideouts grade.  Jimbo Christian played good.  He had his highest grade (88%) on the entire year, including the 1-AA schools.  He made smart decisions with the ball and didn't make any interceptable throws.  If you want to get my full take on this, read Inside the Seminole Film Room First Half, and Second Half. 

Jimbo thought he made the correct play 88% of the time, and even docked him for not taking a chance (in stark contrast to his failure last week against Wake, when he was roundly criticized by everyone for not taking the same throw). 

Let's have a look at his Non-Completions: 

1 RB, K-Gun Look.  Ponder checks here at line.  Three step drop out of shotgun, ball out quickly, good job of stepping & throwing.  INCOMPLETE # 1: Parker drops the ball, on a 5 yard hitch over the middle.  Parker was the hot here, it looks like, as CU brought the blitz.  Pass was on target.

Awesome.  Our "best" player starts the game with a drop on a good throw.  That sure inspires confidence.  Not his fault (1).

Double TE Even Single back.  PA roll right.  Nice job by  FR. Te to hold his block.  Ponder's throw isn’t great here as he tries to his Parker on the out.  Bad TV angle, but looks like he was a second or half second late on the throw.  He did zip it though, which is important on the out.  INCOMPLETE # 2  This was the right read here, for the record. 

This is on him (1).  He will get better at anticipating throws as he progresses.  Correct read though, which is better than last week.  

INCOMPLETE # 3.  Multiple screw-up's here.  Easterling & Surrency don't line up in tight, so Ponder has to tell them to come in.  This wastes time, but good job by Christian to recognize their mistake.  He doesn't get a look at the D until the clock is at 0:06.  Now, if you watch this, it looks like they he had Antone in the flat for a second.  He didn't.  Why?  He doesn't even read Antone on this play; smith is just a decoy.  Why?  The play is a middle screen to Parker.  Unfortunately for this drive, Colorado has the PERFECT play called!  They are in a big-time zone blitz here.  Ponder didn't do anything wrong here at all.  We had this, but for the dropping lineman.  He actually did a good job of holding the ball for as long as he did.  Throw was fairly safe, as Dlineman has his back turn.  We had this set up.  There is only 1 read on this play: either throw it to Parker, or get rid of it. 

A Dlineman in a zone blitz clogs up the screen, while CP is under heavy pressure.  Not his fault (2).  Though really, this was bad luck playcalling wise.

4 wide stack look.  NON-COMPLETE # 4.  Ponder wants to go to Carr on the 8 yard stop.  Carr was open.  I THINK Parker was slightly more open, but the Carr read wasn't a bad read.  Not much pressure.  Now, this play happens because Furlong doesn't get his man on the cut block, & his man gets his hands up to bat this ball.  Christian runs forward, catches the ball, & rushes forward with the ball, bobbling it, & never getting control, hits it to a Dlineman.  This was positively Rixian.  I appreciate the hustle & the awesome effort, but knock that pass down.  This was should be scored a fumble, not a pick.  Also, great hustle by the captain smith, to make the tackle.  This was so fluky, they I doubt we see this ever again.  I'll assign the incomplete to Furlong for doing a horrible job on his block.  I blame Ponder for trying to do too much in catching his own pass. Batting the ball down is the correct play here.

The Lineman missed his block.  Jimbo said as much, said it was a good read, and the ball would have been a good throw.  Not his fault (3).  Also, this was not an interception, but rather a fumble, in my estimation.

NON-COMPLETE # 5  I-Form, play Action.  Correct read, I think, as he had Fortson deep.  He was a half second late, IMO, but still made a good throw that Fortson could have had.  This IS his fault, as it would have been a difficult catch.  Colorado did not bite badly on the fake.  If he throws throws this a split second earlier on time, it's a huge gain as the safety can't get over.  NO DB touched the pass.

His fault (2). 

NONCOMPLETE # 6 TWIN WR I-FORM.  PA, they don't bite much.  Now, there were reasonable explanations for the first 5 non-completes, most of which were not solely Ponder's fault, if his at all.  This one was.  The protection was GREAT.  Nobody was open.  He threw the ball way late, to Carr, who wasn't open.  Ponder looked like a freshman here, & really needed to either use his legs to run, or just launch this to the end zone, where he MIGHT have had a shot.  This was a dangerous, ill advised, poorly thrown pass.  I would love to be a fly on the wall on Monday when Jimbo & CP talk this one over.

Definitely his fault (3).

NON-COMPLETE # 7  Sprint out left, 2 man route as Caz & Antone stay in to block.  Ponder has Easterling for a second, but Ponder is cautious.  When he does square his shoulders, nobody is open, & Ponder throws this ball high & to the sidelines.  If you miss your short throwing window, what should you do?  Run.  In this case, however, he would have been tackled quickly.  This play was designed to be a man-buster (the motion is a tell), but CU played a great zone.  Ponder realized he missed his window of opportunity & didn't act stupid, as he threw the ball where it had no chance to be picked off.  The crowd booed, & the announcers said it was well off the mark, but there wasn't a spot for him to throw after the initial window.  This is the play I watched the most (5 or 6 times).  Watch it if you can, this window is tiny, if at all.

This was a throwaway that Jimbo complimented him on while mentioning that he has the ability to make the throw.  Not his fault (4).

IINCOMPLETE # 8: Same Formation (4-WR Stack Gun).  FSU runs a similar play.  Ponder has to double clutch for a second, because Zebrie lets his man jump into the air.  Now, why does this play not go for a completion?  Gregg Carr ran the wrong route.  Ponder looked really confused to the sideline, & the WR's had an automatic check:  you can see the WR's & Christian point (acknowledging the check).  Carr does NOT check or point, and later talks with the Seminoles confirm that Carr ran the wrong damn route.  Not a good day for the senior.

Not his fault (5). 

NON- COMPLETE # 9 Best throw he made all day.  4 wide gun.  Colorado brings blitz , we pick it up.  Now, yesterday some thought he had another guy open.  He made up his mind to throw at the 0:48 mark, & at that time, his read was correct.  This ball was beautifully thrown to the corner of the end zone.  Easterling couldn't get the foot down, but the DB never had a chance.  I question the personnel use here.  Why not have Surrency, Carr, Fortson, Parker, or even Owens run that route!?  This was a great throw.  He had ZERO margin for error here, & this was the right read. 

Right read on a high level of difficulty throw.  Jimbo raved about this corner route in today's press conference.  It really was a great ball.  The WR (Easterling) needed to get his feet down.  Not his fault (6).

NON- COMPLETE # 10: 4 WR Stack GUN:  Many problems on this play.  Bad block by Zebrie (driven back & let man inside.  Very very Lazy route by Carr (didn't threaten defense).  Ponder had to throw off his back foot here (well, didn't HAVE TO, but the pressure was in his face).  He launched it out of the end zone.  I do think he had him if he could have stepped up & thrown on time.  Also, Antone out in the flat on a 3rd & 16?  Not a real option.  I didn't like the blocking, route running, or the QB play on this play.  I also didn't like Fisher's call here., as there weren't any routes to threaten the defense downfield or over the middle, except for Parker.

His fault, sort of (immense pressure, but still needed to throw this away).  (3.5)

NON-COMPLETE # 11 After the last drive, my only hope here was that we wouldn't try to blast block with our middle school sized right guard.  We're in K-Gun here.  Thie was NOT a screen pass.  I loved this playcall!  Fake handoff from gun to parker coming in motion, misdirection roll, perfect throw to Jermaine Thomas, and Thomas flat dropped it.  Also, a man in Ponder's face.  This was a great ball, thrown around the DT in his face, and perfectly led right into Thomas' hands.

Wide open RB drops pass that hits him in the hands in stride?  Not his fault (7)

NON-COMPLETE # 12 K-Gun.  Poor job by Datko as he gets beat to the inside, and gets in Ponders face as he launches off backfoot to Surrency.  Not a good play, all around.  At least he got it to through end zone.  I do think this was the right read, as did Jimbo.  If he has semi-decent protection, this is probably a TD.

His fault, sort of (4).

Of the 12 Non-Completions, only 4 can be directly attributed to him. 

Now, given that Jimbo said he had his best game yet, I said he played pretty well, the receivers played poorly, and he has the youngest offensive line in the entire nation, how in the world are people still giving this kid heat?  Make your own decisions, but realize that there are two people who go through the entire game tape, take notes, and then tell you what they saw.  Those two are Jimbo (THE AUTHORITY) and myself.  There are others who watch on TV at full speed, maybe look at the kid's stat line, do NOT go back and watch tape in slo-mo, and then give their thoughts.  Who do you trust?  I would love to sit down with these people who are hounding him and listen to their silence as we watch tape.  Some are even saying he is missing guys running wide open (false), and missing check downs (again false).  It seems as if they're using the following formula: (below avg performance against Wake where he didn't hit checkdowns, + Colorado game observations that do not come from breaking down tape+ not pretty stat line= dumb observations).  Nobody breaks down the stuff like we do here (except the coaches, and they aren't very open with the media anymore) and I think that is where the difference in opinion lies.  Question everything.  Before you believe someone who is writing about your team, ask yourself: do they have an inside connection?; do they understand what they are talking about; have they actually taken the time to review the games?  I think that some people do, and some do not.  He has improved a bunch since the Wake game.

Continue reading this post »

Here is the first drive of the 3rd quarter.  The full 3rd quarter and 4th quarter are available after clicking "continue reading story."  I changed this up to unclutter the front page.

Key Terms:  K-GUN= Old Buffalo Bills Formation, w/ Shotgun, 1RB, 1 TE, 3 WR;  ALABAMA= Singleback, 2 WR Twins, No GUN, 1 TE, 1 HB (usually same side);  CHOLLIE= Old FSU Gun formation w/ 3 WR and 2 RB's.

Inside the Seminole Film Room: 1st-Half (Colorado)

Continue reading this post »

I will finish the play-by-play review, and issue the progress report tommorow night. 

These are against BCS Conference Teams ONLY (Not including Duke)

• 06 v. UCLA, 44-27 (Emerald Bowl)
• 05 v. Wake Forest, 41-17
• 08 v. Colorado, 39-21
• 05 v. Maryland, 35-27
• 06 v. Virginia, 33-0

No, I did NOT forget 2007; we didn't have any games to fit this category.  When I said that the previous teams padded stats against bad teams and didn't lead scoring drives, I meant it.  Let's watch this offense grow.  I posted this for all the experts complaining about our offense.  There will be plenty of bumps, but we are as good as any offense FSU threw out in 2005-2007.

Also, Ponder v. Weatherford, against Colorado:  

• 2008: Ponder, Rs Soph, 4th career start, game in Jacksonville, youngest offensive line in Nation, against better Colorado team:  10-22, 120, 0 TD, 1 Int (which was a fumble, not an INT), 8 Rush, 43 yards, not sacked, 8 1stDowns Passing, 2 1stDowns rushing.  Win 39-21.
  
• 2007: Weatherford, Rs Jr, 28th Career start, game in Boulder, against worse Colorado team:  8-18, 126 yards, 3 sacks, 6 rushes, -9 yards, 6 1stDowns Passing, 0 1stDowns rushing.  Win 16-6
  

Here is the 1st Quarter.  The 2nd quarter is after the jump (hit "continue reading" ). 

I will have the second half up later, probably later tonight.  What do you think?

Continue reading this post »

I'll be liveblogging the games throughout the day!  Stop in and share your thoughts.  This is a great place to keep up with the game(s) if you don't get the game in your area!  Stop in and see the Tomahawk Nation guys talk about the 'Noles, and other games throughout the day!  We'd love for you to post your thoughts, observations, and reactions as well!

If you haven't already checked out the Tomahawk Nation Preview: make sure that you do so!  Also, happy birthday to USER jds07d!

I need some volunteers!  We need one person to Tivo the our game and the Miami game, in case our Tivo were to break.  Why?  Because, if our Tivo breaks down, you can save the blog and be the hero by sending us a copy, for us to break down and share our thoughts off of, with you.  If you're up for the task, let us know in the comment section.

If you're participating in entertainment purposes only style action today, let us know that as well.  Always interesting to see who you have.

Official Tomahawk Nation Updates

• 9:45 AM: Nigel Bradham is in beast mode (updating his facebook from his blackberry). 
  
• We're hearing that Greenlee is out at tackle, and Tonga is in.  Okay, "source", you're on the spot here.
• 2:38 EST UPDATE: Ron Cherry is reffing this game.  He is a bad referee.  Hopefully none of our guys will get called for "giving him the business."

It's that time again!  Friday morning!  You need to kill some time at work!  You log on to TomahawkNation.  Why?  Because you know our preview will be good enough to eat up two hours of clock watching.

First, though, here are 3 important announcements:

• Important Announcement 1:  Nolesblogger and I will be LIVE BLOGGING THE GAME!  This will happen in the "Open Game Thread" (posted Saturday at Midnight!)  This is interactive, and you can see me totally lose if it we play like garbage again, in real time!
• Important Announcement 2: Sign up (totally free and we do not send you stuff, even if you ask us to) for the Contest!
• Important Announcement 3: If you're not in Florida, make sure you know where the game is being shown:  Do you get the game? 

  If you don't get the game, either go to a sports bar, order ESPN Gameplan, or just stick right here with us! (see "Important Announcement #1)

  
  

The 'Noles are still smarting from their horrific loss to Wake Forest, a defeat that set offensive football back at least 50 years.  If you took your time machine back to the 1930's and showed football officials our tape, well, you would never have seen Montana hit Taylor, of Chris Weinke hit Peter Warrick, because the rules committee would have never approved the forward pass.  I reviewed our performance, play, by play, by painful, inept play.  We talked about how the 'Noles probably can't play worse on offense, how upperclassmen leaders need to hold on to the damn football, and how, through seven turnovers and less than 250 yards of offense, there were a few flickers of hope.  Did I throw up in my mouth when I hit play on the DVR?  Yes, but I own a tooth brush and this is a new week. 

Ideally, FSU will look to leave that dreadful offense behind.  They don't want to leave the entire game behind, though, because, to borrow a line from a gator blog (egads!), the "'Noles still have Mickey Andrews, our sunflower-seed chomping clipboard frog-god and defensive mafioso sending garnet-and-gold hitmen to kill quarterbacks at a startling clip."

In case you missed it, here are the links to everything we said in the Aftermath of the Wake Game:  My preliminary thoughts upon ariving home from Tallanasty, My reaction to the fans reaction,  Play-by-Play Review: 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and The Report Card

It's now time to get totally geared up and informed about this Colorado game. 

Let's start with some tunes from a Jacksonville native as I let you in on some info about the River City.

In Memory of Elizabeth Reed

As a general rule, I am never going to pass up the chance to drop a 10 minute Skynyrd clip.  I break that rule for the Allman Brothers, live at Fillmore east.

I'm not from Jacksonville, though  I did date a girl from there once.  Let's let Wikipedia tell you a bit first.

Jacksonville is the largest city in the state of Florida—in terms of both area and population—and is the county seat of Duval County. Since 1968, as a result of the consolidation of the city and county government (and a corresponding expansion of the city limits to include almost the entire county), Jacksonville has been the largest city in land area in the contiguous United States.

In 2007, Jacksonville ranked as the United States' twelfth most populous city, with 794,555 residents.^[4] It is the principal city in the Greater Jacksonville Metropolitan Area, a region with a population of 1,300,823,^[5] and the fourth largest metropolitan area in the state, as of the 2006 Census Bureau estimates. Jacksonville is the third most populated city on the East Coast, after New York City and Philadelphia. (FSUncensored's Note:  That is a heck of a trivia question!)

About 25 miles (40 km) south of the Georgia border, Jacksonville is in the First Coast region of northeast Florida and is centered on the banks of the St. Johns River. The settlement that became Jacksonville was founded in 1791 as Cowford because of its location at a narrow point in the river where cattle once crossed. In 1822, a year after the United States acquired Florida from Spain, the city was renamed for the first military governor of the Florida Territory, General Andrew Jackson, who would later be elected President of the United States. In 2008, Jacksonville was ranked as the third cleanest city in the United States by Yahoo! Real Estate ^[6] and fourth best outdoor city by Forbes. ^[7]

Since we have some out-of-towners descending upon Jacksonville, they might be curious about Jacksonville's selection of ladies.  I don't post things on this blog that could get you in trouble at work, but if you are so inclined to see some local talent, I suggest firing up "The google" (not "the ebay"), and entering "Nichole Van Croft", "Jennifer Rovero", or "Tiffany Selby".  I know we have a female reader now, but I don't judge guys, so I can't offer much guidance in that area. 

Did you know that Jacksonville is the 14th Sweatiest city in America?  It's true!  All the more reason to enter our Know Your 'Noles Pick 3 Contest, the First Prize is a Dri-Fit Seminoles Polo!  Hopefully those Buffaloes will melt away in the River City.

Jacksonville is home to former 'Nole greats Sam Cowart, Edgar Bennet, Ron "Jingle Joints" Sellers, and Leon Washington

Know what other athlete is from Jacksonville?  Gator Gus Scott, whose lack of awareness allowed this play to happen:

Gus Scott: Fail.  Bobby:  Win.  Sam quiets 88K people and tells Police dog where to shove it.  Rix's helmet shielding us from his protective layer of hair gel.  Excellence.

Let's review what happened last year in Colorado:

Florida State held Colorado to -27 yards rushing in their own building, en route to a 16-6 win.  This game was really, really ugly, a common theme for the 'Noles as of late.  Mickey's boys were out for blood.

This Photo really tells the whole story:

Cody Hawkins threw for a bunch of yards between the 20's, but was constantly hit.

Florida State won the game because Nole defensive line absolutely owned the Colorado front.  Mickey called a pretty good game, completely choking off the run, and dictating where Hawkins would go with the ball.  When Hawkins got out of line and challenged Mickey, he payed dearly, via bone jarring hits and interceptions (2).  Florida State registered TEN tackles for loss.  Colorado ran the ball 23 times, and on 8 of those hand offs, they lost yards on 8 of those carries.  To say that Florida State owned first down is an understatement.  Hawkins threw for 300 yards, but did so on 53 tosses (less than 6 yards per attempt, which is horrible).  His QB rating?  111, pretty bad in college (NFL equivalent of 70.11).  I guarantee you that Mickey Andrews will gladly let Hawkins throw 53 passes in this game (especially considering the new play clock rules, which have caused teams to lose about 10 to 12 percent of their offensive downs so far this season).

On offense the 'Noles were extremely boring and ineffective.  They struggled to move the ball under Weatherford (his calling card).  They did not turn the ball over.  Not moving the ball and punting is a good way to beat average or lesser teams.  FSU put on one of the worse offensive displays ever-- by a team that would go on to win comfortably.

FSU won by playing amazing pressure defense, running the ball 35 times (They had only 57 total plays!), having no turnovers, and living off of the field position equalizer, Graham Gano.  Gano punted 8 times and averaged 47 yards NET PER PUNT!.

In year two of Jimbo, the former LSU OC decided he had enough of sub 120 QB ratings and immobile offense.  He went bold, benching Weatherford, burying the 5th year senior and assumed 4th year starter at third on the depth chart.

Jimbo did that because to win in the college game (as opposed to the pro game), against elite opponents, you can't just play scared and punt.  Points are important.  A good team will wear out any defense if given enough chances.  Fisher knows that.  He also knows that this team isn't ready to compete for a National Championship.  He decided to go with talent and youth.  He decided on Christian Ponder.  That worked great for the first two games, but Ponder and his counterpart, D'Vontrey Richardson, stunk up the joint for Wake. 

People screamed for Drew, while Fisher rebuffed them.  He is sticking with Ponder and will also play D'vo.  Their added mobility and talent will eventually blossom.  The offense wasn't going anywhere else in the meantime.  Did you know that the average age of our offensive line is NINETEEN!?  That is pretty remarkable.  Think about that number before trying to convince yourself that reinstating Drew is the right call.  Ponder's mobility is going to come in handy throughout the season behind this young unit. 

Jimbo says that the errors are easily correctable.  He's not implying that they will all be cleared up by this game, or that the offense will immediately become Texas Tech or Missouri, but he seems confident that he can turn it around.  Did you know that Chris Wienke threw 6 interceptions against NC State?  Did you know that Chollie Ward threw 16 in 4 games?  Give these kids time.  Starting Rix for 4 years didn't work because we had a guy who wasn't even qualified to be a "playstation all american" as his OC, and Starting Weatherford as a frosh didn't work because he had that same guy and isn't very talented.  Ponder is different.  Ponder has a lot of talent and a lot of smarts.  Ponder is an older 20 year old, who is pretty mature.  Don't pick up your pitchforks just because a kid plays one bad game.  We've already seen three years of horrifically inept performances.  Let's look and hope for hope and improvement. 

I talked with The Ralphie Report earlier this week.  I also did a lengthy Q&A for them, available at their site.  Our conversation follows.  I really enjoyed working with these guys.

1. What are your thoughts on Cody Hawkins? His size and arm strength are both well-below average. Are you high on Hawkins despite these limitations? How does CU compensate for these shortcomings?

I flip flop a lot on Cody Hawkins but I am usually a supporter. I do this game with people at work all the time where I do a comparison like, "would you rather have Jimmy Clausen or Cody Hawkins as your quarterback." Most of the time Hawkins gets the ruling over a good amount of sophomore quarterbacks. He just gets a bad wrap because he doesn’t have all the measurables and he plays in the Quarterback "Big" 12. You could probably substitute Ponder and Richardson in the Jimmy Clausen spot and Hawkins might be your choice. Yes, Hawkins may have a potential ceiling but right now Hawkins has a better grasp of the offense and is a much more consistent passer. His confidence and leadership help him overcome some of his shortcomings. He does throw usually one interception a game which needs to stop but you can never really blame Cody for a loss. He has a 70% completion percentage this year and 6TD’s so he has been pretty productive. Until he starts personally losing games for the Buffs, I will be supportive. Hawkins’ arm strength has improved over last year and I think he is a little more mobile than people give him credit for. He isn’t afraid to make the big play or lead a team which is promising for a young kid. Let’s face it, he has no where near the athletic ability that Ponder and Richardson have but he is much more consistent and usually isn’t the reason the Buffs lose.

 

2. I followed the Darrell Scott recruiting saga with interest. Granted, it's only three games into the season, but I had anticipated a bit more out of Scott by this point. Frankly, Scott has a looked a bit slower than I expected, and he has been outplayed by a relatively unheralded 5'6" freshman thus far. Is it true that Scott came to camp overweight and out of shape? Do you see Scott's breakout performance as coming any game now, or does he have more work to do in terms of learning the playbook/conditioning before this can happen?

I love this question. So I will start by saying Scott did report over weight because he was in summer school. He is now down to 205 from 220 so he is in his prime playing shape. In the West Virginia game, Scott had a dinged up knee and Stewart was a better match-up for the speed oriented defense in West Virginia. They ran a lot of mis-direction and screen passes that were aimed at catching WVU off balance. No one saw the runs against EWU where he had two of the most physically gifted runs I have ever seen. That being said, he is a freshman. A 19 year old kid in game three of his collegiate career that I guarantee will be special by the time he is done. He hasn’t got 20 carries in a game yet. A running back needs to get that groove in a game by getting a lot of carries. The first two games, the Buffs only ran out of the shotgun and never let him go outside. Last game they had a situational match up they exploited and were successful on. It was the first game that the Buffs went under center and ran in the "I" formation to show a different look. The Buffs are hiding a lot of the offense still, in my opinion for this FSU defense and for the Texas defense. Scott is the power back and FSU is the explosive defense, if the Buffs get some help up front, you will see all the physical tools Scott has to offer.

 

3.  Talk about this statement, if you will: Colorado freshman guard Max Tuioti-Mariner suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in non-contact drills in Tuesday's practice and will miss the remainder of the season. Tuioti-Mariner played in each of the first three games this season and recorded 16.5 knockdown blocks, the third most on the team. Colorado seems to be suffering from lack of depth according to reports in the Colorado area papers. There are 80 scholarship players on the current roster while the NCAA allows 85. Eleven of those scholarships are unable to help the program on game days. Four players have suffered season-ending injuries, six players are academically ineligible and one player is suspended indefinitely. That leaves 69 scholarship players and 12 of them are slated to red shirt this fall.  Fact?  Inaccurate?  How will Colorado deal with this?

Fact, I am sure but I can only name 4 academically ineligible but yes the depth factor is a little bit of a concern…on paper. Tuioti-Mariner is by far the biggest causality on the list. He was starting and really making strides as a freshman. Probably only three of these other players would have made an impact this year: WR Markques Simas (grades), CB Ben Burney (injury) and OG Mike Iltis (ACL injury). The Buffs have had four ACL tears so far this spring which is never an easy injury to recover from including LB Jon Major, who was a highly touted recruit that would have red shirted anyway. We also had WR Kendrick Celestine who left the team this week. He was our 5^th string wide-out but he has had academic problems too and never really found himself in the good graces of the coaching staff. Yes, the numbers look bad but the players that we are lining up with and, except for the offensive line; we have decent depth at each position. But please, no more injuries or suspensions or we will be in trouble.

 

4.  In the Win against WVU, the Buffs looks good on offense in the first half, but in the second half, the Mountaineers held Colorado to No points and 98 yards on 24 plays (4 Yards per Play).  What did you see from West Virginia, defensively, that led to the shutdown?  How will Colorado change things up to make sure this doesn't happen again?

It was a combination of a few things. I won’t give WVU coaches any credit on this one because you and I could have coached that team better. That being said the offensive production was not good. It’s like what I talked about in the first question. The Buffs get conservative for some reason. They had a couple of turnovers that killed drives and it seemed like the play calling was set up to keep the lead rather than expand on it. The solution is simple…keep the foot on the gas. We understand that if we don’t play to win against FSU for the whole game, we will lose as I don’t see CU surprising FSU as easily as they did WVU. I would like to see a little more confidence in Darrell Scott and Cody Hawkins. I would also like to see the Buffs incorporate TE Riar Geer more. One thing I know about blitzing, aggressive defenses like FSU is that the middle of field has holes in it. The Buffs have not gotten the tight ends in gear which is usually a staple of the Buffs offense.

 

5.  FSU recorded tackles for loss on 10 of Wake's 65 plays, for a total loss of 52 yards.  Will Colorado be able to consistently win the battle on first down?  Last year, Colorado had -27 yards rushing.  Is this offensive line and rushing attack significantly improved, about the same, or worse than last year?

Biggest concern for the game is this question and I am going to be honest with you, we don’t know if this line is better. We like to think so but the Buffs don’t play defenses like FSU that often. Obviously losing Tuioti-Mariner is huge for the rotation at guard but right now the Buffs have a great center in Daniel Sanders and two sophomores at tackle in Nate Solder and former five star recruit Ryan Miller. But have they seen speed like FSU…some of them last year and we saw what happened. This is a biggest barometer game for the offensive line for sure. I will tell you this…if we go for negative 27 again…it won’t be a good day for the Buffs. If you wouldn’t mind, I will revisit after the game!!!!

 

6.  Everette Brown will be hungry on Saturday.  Who will be saddled with the task of getting in front of him?  Does Colorado like to double guys with a back?  Does Colorado have a guy who can handle Everette (4 tackles for loss against Wake)?  If not, should we expect to see Colorado use one of the young backs to double him?  Are the young backs a liability in pass-pro? 

Man, oh man, all of these descriptions and questions are definitely making me rethink the Buffs ability to win this weekend. How about some FSU offensive questions…that will make me feel better? The question back to you is can anyone stop #99? I had nightmares about Mr. Brown. I am sure our left tackle Nate Solder is not sleeping well either. Yes, double teams will be in order with a chip from TE Riar Geer who is a big boy and a strong blocker. My guess is that you will see a lot of shot gun two RB sets with RB Demetrius Sumler in for blocking purposes when needed. He is the preferred blocker to Scott and Stewart. Solder is a good tackle but he is young and going against a beast will be a tough task. But I also think the Buffs have plenty of motivation to come out and play well because all we have been hearing about is that "they (FSU) are too big, too fast and too strong on defense." This is a prideful group. Don’t think they haven’t heard about the poor rushing effort last you against the ‘Noles last year. I expect Hawkins to have good game plan to at least maintain Everette from total domination. The match up in the trenches is why I am excited for this game, either the Buffs step up and match FSU’s intensity or FSU rolls over us. There is no middle ground. Either way, Buffs fans find out what this team is made of. I think that goes for FSU as well.

 

7.  3rd and 7, down by 4, 1:30 left in the game.  What play do the Buffs run? 

Shovel Pass. It’s four down territory. Get the aggressive ends to come up field, get a wham block from the receivers on the edge and flip it to Darrell Scott where Mr. Brown used to be. On fourth down if we don’t get it. Look for TE Riar Geer to vacate the area where the blitzing linebackers come from and make the catch.

 

8.  FSU's best offensive position is wide receiver.  Discuss, if you will, Cornerback depth.  Does Colorado have the horses to stick with these guys?  Do you expect Colorado to play a conservative zone in the hopes of making FSU drive slowly down the field, betting that they can't do so without self destructing?  The Buff's Opponent Adjusted Pass Efficiency Defense is ranked 80th in the Nation (Wake is 2nd), how will they handle FSU's depth?

The Buffs defensive backfield has been better than anticipated with #29 Cha’pelle Brown really stepping up and playing well both against the pass and supporting the run. But Cha’pelle is only 5’7". I am very skeptical about our other starting cornerback #6 Gardner McKay. He is taller but lanky and avoids contact too much. I like our backup’s #21 Anthony Wright and #3 Jimmy Smith better but both have been a little dinged up. Wright is 6’0" 195 lbs and Smith is 6’3" 200 lbs, both match up better with the size and strength of FSU’s wide receivers. The best aid to the cornerbacks will be a consistent pass rush led by LB #40 Brad Jones. I think both teams are unsure about their offensive lines. I expect CU to actually play pretty aggressive on the outside because I think CU will bring the house against these inexperienced quarterbacks. The last thing we want to do is let the quarterback get comfortable and gain any confidence.

 

9.  My guess on Colorado's game plan is this:  ball control short passing on offense, with some misdirection, trying to really avoid 3rd and long.  Safe on defense, not allowing the big play, and hope that FSU beats themselves. 

I am sitting watching USC vs. Oregon State right now and that is what I expect from the Buffs. Nothing fancy, no misdirection. You can’t dance against a team with this speed. A lot of controlled passes, screen passes and a straight at you running attack. Only throwing the ball deep to keep the defense honest but not making a habit out of it. The last thing the Buffs want is a speed rush off the end where FSU can just tee off on Cody Hawkins.  You hit the nail on the head regarding 3^rd down. The Buffs have struggled on first down this year and if the Buffs can get in 2^nd and 5 type situations, I love our offense because we now become a quick hitting team, where the ball is out of Hawkins’ hand quick and the Buffs keep the Seminoles honest. If the Buffs stay out of automatic pass situations on third down greater than 50% of the time, CU wins the game.

 

Okay, prediction time.  What happens at 3:30 on Saturday?  Why is this year different from last year?

First of all, is anyone confused at the 6 point line? I thought it would be 3 or 4 at the most but 6 seems like a lot of points. With what looks like a poor crowd turn out for this game, FSU’s 80,000 fan advantage at Doak will be cut in half in Jacksonville. I like that. A lot of keys to this game. Turnovers, 3^rd down success, pass rush and scoring early will do wonders for either of these offenses. I look for the Buffs to have a few early wrinkles, get up 10 points and ride out the win, 17 – 13. Going to be a sloppy, ugly drag out game. I am excited. Thanks for the opportunity to answers some questions for your members!

 

Some of these were actually sent in by readers!  Andy_Wooster is responsible for the first two.  I will say that I did a rather poor job of questioning this week.  I focused too much on one area (defensive line for FSU), and really needed to spread out the questions more.

A few words on penalties from earlier in the week:

As for the penalties, they really fell into four categories:

Talent Induced (3): 

I'll put the 2 holding penalties against the offensive line here, as well as the Pass Interference against the defensive back who we unaffectionately call "Michael Ray Garbage" (his real name is Garvin).  These guys were trying to get lucky after prom six months ago, and were being asked to block a bunch of 22 or 23 year old men (Redshirt Senior defensive linemen from Wake).  I don't think this is a coaching issue.  The defensive back who was called for PI will not be seeing the field much more now that the remaining suspended 'Noles are returning.

Mental Errors (2):

The False Start on the freshman OT and the 12 men on the field calls go here.  I think 1 false start in the game from a group with an average age of 19 years old is acceptable.  The 12 men on the field call aren't, and the coaches and players must share in the blame for this.  Since Mickey (Our DC) was yelling at an upperclassman defensive back, however, I think that DB needs most of the blame.

Inexperience (1):

Corey Surrency threw a really egregious chop block, way down field.  This is his first year playing college football, and I have to believe that the former flag football star didn't know any better.  This is a coaching issue, but it's not one that I would expect to occur again.  They will definitely instruct Surrency as to what is and is not a legal block. 

Rage/ Undisciplined (4):

The unsportsmanlike and unnecessary roughness calls go here.  This includes the offsetting shoving match that the kickoff team engaged in, the personal foul on Everette Brown, the personal