The Golden Nugget Casino and Sports Book released 200 betting lines as part of its college football game of the year promotion. Let's have a look at the lines involving Florida State. When I say "high," I mean the number is shaded too much to FSU. Similarly, low means there may be value on Florida State.
The Pitt line seems a little bit high. The crowd will be a sellout in Pitt's first ever ACC game. The Panthers have an experienced defense and are in their second year under new coach Paul Chryst, which is typically when leaps are made. FSU is breaking in 11 new starters, including a red-shirt freshman QB, who while talented, is still making his first ever start. This line implies FSU would be favored by about 17 at a neutral site, and by close to three touchdowns at home. That seems a bit much.
The Nevada game, meanwhile, seems about right. Nevada is a better team than people realize, and anything between 25 an 29 is probably appropriate for the home opener.
FSU at Boston College similarly seems like an OK line, though perhaps slightly low. It implies FSU would be favored by ~20 at a neutral site, and by about 24 in DCS. Remember, the Clemson game is on deck here, and with college kids, the lookahead factor does matter. How much of BC's poor play last year was a team quitting on its lame duck coach, and how much was talent?
The Clemson line seems high. It implies FSU would be favored by ~1.5 points on a neutral site. I would bet Clemson here at a number less than a field goal.
Vegas seems to be disrespecting N.C. State a little bit. Sandwiched between the Clemson and Miami games, and with a good amount of its team returning, I figured this would have been about 17, not 20. I wouldn't wager on this game until there is greater certainty with NCSU's QB position.
The Miami line seems low. Vegas really loves the Hurricanes this year, and while they will be much more experienced, the overall talent level is still not special. Miami was 65th last year overall, and the offense you'll hear so much about was 46th (FSU's, which everyone loves to complain about, was 23rd). This implies that FSU would be slightly more than a field goal favorite on a neutral field, and a pick'em in Miami. Bet the Seminoles if this stays at single digits.
The Wake Forest line seems perhaps a bit low to me. Wake should be improved, but the home field advantage is minimal, and they really don't have much talent.
I do not understand the Syracuse line at all. I think this is off by more than a field goal, and should be 21 at the minimum. Accordingly, if I were in Vegas, I'd be playing FSU here. There is no lookahead or hangover factor, with a D1-AA between this and the Florida game. Syracuse lost a lot, is trying to implement a hurry-up, no huddle, pistol offense, and doesn't have the talent to play with Florida State in Doak.
Speaking of the Florida game, that line seems somewhat OK. I would probably favor Florida by three or four and not two, but there is probably some anticipation of improvement from FSU built in to the line here.