Tomahawk Nation

Been thinking ....

Fsued — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 22:27:07 -0000

.... about Saturday.

I read where Mickey Andrews said the main problems were effort and intensity. I find this explanation to be lacking and, frankly, a little scary.

The quarterback was not running free on the zone read because of effort and intensity. It's because our scheme was lacking and our discipline was pathetic.

Did Ga. Tech RB run straight off guard, untouched, because of effort and intensity?

Here's my real big, fat fear: We are exactly in the same place on defense right now as we were on offense 3 or 4 years ago. But everybody knows MA won't go until Bowden goes and I'm not so sure we're as close to that as some people think/wish.

Bowden's hero was Bear Bryant and when he was done with football, he was done with life -- literally. I'm sure Bowden fears the same thing -- I would.

For the first time with our offense, I see the light at the end of the tunnel.

1) We have a QB who gets it. He has much improvemient ahead, but he gets it.

2) We have skill players galore

3) We have an O-line that is tough. They're small, but they'll grow -- not just through Tricket's Marine tactics, but remember, 20 year olds are simply bigger than 18 year olds. They will grow.

4) Most important, we have a scheme that makes sense. We are at least WITH the times and maybe even a little ahead of the times in terms of getting the ball to players in space, etc.

On defense, though, we trail ... badly. Our blitz scheme seems archaic (when's the last time we successfully brought a corner on a blitz?) We obviously have a glaring weakness at DT. Our CB's are vulnerable to the deep ball (like they have been under MA since the forward pass was invented).

And, most importantly ANY GIMMICK -- option, zone read, spread passing game, emphasis on the TE, -- ANYTHING that is something other than straight I formation, pro-style offense, we struggle to stop.

Finally, there is the product of the disjointed bureaucracy otherwise known as our football coaching org. chart.

Who is the boss? You might scoff at that and say: Of course, it's Bowden. He's the "CEO"

Look, I'm a poor man's CEO and I sure as hell decide who will be "starting" as my department heads every week. I don't say-- "go ask my No. 2 guy, he'll tell you who is going to lead that department."

It is a DYSFUNCTIONAL setup. Organizational structures exist for a reason. Trickett of all people would understand this, coming from the military. People need a BOSS.They need a chain of command. They need to know who is going to chew their ass when they screw up. They need to know who is invested in their success.

There is a political philosophy known as the "tragedy of the commons." Basically it says: If one person owns something, it is much more likely to be taken care of than if many people own something."

This makes sense if you think about litter. Where are you more likely to see litter, in somebody's front yard or in a culvert located on a public right of way? The culvert, of course, because every in town owns 1/100,000th of it.

Well, the same is true in an organization, the more you diffuse and disperse responsibility, the less people actually FEEL that responsibility.

In the news business, I always laugh when editors boast: We have 7 people edit each story.

Well, you know what the first editor says? 'I don't have to pay much attention to this, there are 6 more sets of eyes coming behind me." And the 7th edtior says: "This must be right, 6 other people have already read it!"

These players need ONE leader and these coaches need ONE leader so that responsibility is focused and sharp.

The final thing I read is about Jimbo and Ponder saying that we let down after hearing that Wake had lost.

ONE, STRONG, TRUE leader would never allow that to happen.

Go Deep: Inside FSU's win over Jacksonville (Basketball)

FSUncensored — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 20:52:07 -0000

This win might not seem like much, but it is a perfect time to introduce some advanced basketball metrics.

AP Story

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP)—Senior Toney Douglas scored a team-high 16 points as Florida State held off a late charge to beat Jacksonville University 59-57 Saturday in both teams’ season opener.

Freshman Chris Singleton added a double-double, with 12 points and 16 rebounds for the Seminoles, who beat the Dolphins for the 15th consecutive time dating back to 1988. Jordan DeMercy contributed 10 points for Florida State (1-0).

Junior forward Lehmon Colbert led Jacksonville (0-1) with 16 points, while forward Marcus Allen added 10 points.

FSU built a 30-17 halftime lead by holding the Dolphins to just six points in the final 13:20 of the first half.

Despite the scoring drought, the Dolphins pulled to within two points when Travis Cohn put back an offensive rebound with three seconds to play.

Box Score

Florida St.
Name	Min	FG	3Pt	FT	Off	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	Pts
C. Singleton	29	3-5	0-1	6-7	3	17	1	2	1	0	5	12
R. Reid	22	2-4	0-0	0-2	0	7	1	1	0	2	3	4
S. Alabi	18	2-4	0-0	2-4	0	3	0	2	0	1	4	6
J. DeMercy	29	3-4	3-4	1-2	0	2	1	5	1	2	3	10
T. Douglas	36	4-13	1-5	7-13	1	2	5	3	4	3	2	16
P. Jordan	5	1-1	0-0	0-1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
X. Gibson	12	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	2
L. Loucks	24	2-4	0-1	0-1	1	4	2	2	1	0	5	4
D. Dulkys	21	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Hoff	4	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Totals	200	19-41	5-15	16-30	5	38	11	18	9	8	23	59
Percentages:		.463	.333	.533		Team Rebounds: 2

Jacksonville
Name	Min	FG	3Pt	FT	Off	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	Pts
A. Hardy	27	2-5	0-1	1-2	3	5	1	2	2	1	3	5
L. Colbert	25	5-10	2-4	4-6	0	2	1	2	0	0	3	16
M. Allen	31	4-9	0-3	2-4	3	6	1	1	2	0	3	10
B. Smith	36	4-17	1-7	0-4	3	12	4	1	1	0	2	9
E. Jefferson	16	2-6	0-3	0-0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	4
T. Cohn	18	2-8	0-2	0-0	5	7	1	0	1	0	0	4
B. Gilbert	11	1-5	1-5	0-0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	3
C. Edwards	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
A. Brooks	17	1-4	0-1	0-0	1	4	1	2	1	0	4	2
T. Galvin	5	1-2	1-1	1-2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	4
S. Lukasiak	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0

Totals	200	22-68	5-28	8-18	16	41	12	11	7	1	22	57
Percentages:		.324	.179	.444		Team Rebounds: 2

But have you ever seen... an advanced box score?

Offense

Defense

Date

Opponent

Result

Sat Nov 15

Jacksonville (s) (sr)

W, 59-57

85.6

52.4

26.1

18.8

73.2

82.7

36.0

16.0

33.3

26.5

I find this stuff really fascinating. Do you know what this stuff actually means?

This is a 4-factors scorecard, a breakdown of a teams efficiency data. Today, we will look at 2 factors. After the next game, we will look at two more. Efficiency data gives you an idea of the quality of a team's offense or defense, but the four factors tell you why a team is good or bad when they have or don't have the ball.

Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers. Shooting is measured by effective field goal percentage, which differs from conventional field goal percentage by taking into account the extra value of a made 3-pointer.

eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA

Turnover percentage (TO%) is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

TO% = TO / Possessions

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/four_factors/

As you can see, we did an okay job shooting the ball, and did an excellent job of preventing baskets on a per-shot basis.

Unfortunately, however, we were horrible with turnovers; both in holding onto the ball and in forcing turnovers on defense. FSU turned the ball over on 26% of its possessions! It forced a turnover on only 16% of JU's possessions.

The AP story does not mention this. The traditional box score hints at it. The reason why JU was close in this game is that they took 27 more shots! FSU turned the ball over, rarely took it away from JU, and did not grab offensive rebounds.

This is pretty basic, but I thought you might find it interesting. For the record, our offense was much worse than our defense, if you were curious.

For More

Welcome to the world of Tempo-Free Stats. These are basketball stats measured on a per possession basis.

There are 3 primary links you should check our when trying to make sense of this. First, http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/stats_explained/ jThat link explains the statistical rankings found here: http://kenpom.com/stats.php

Second, to understand the Pomeroy Ratings, found at http://kenpom.com/rate.php,go to http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation.

Animated Drive Chart and Week 12 CBS Sports Blogpoll *Draft Ballot, & Daily Notes

FSUncensored — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 10:00:09 -0000

We have some really good discussion going on now in the threads below. I'll let those continue and post some more original thoughts tonight. For now, let me know what changes I need to make on the Blogpoll.

Week 12 CBS Sports Blogpoll Draft

This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week. I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses", while punishing them for bad performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. As always, I want your help. Keep in mind though that I don't want "team X is way better than team Y." I do want "team A has a better resume than team B, you should make the change." Power poll rankings are dumb.

The teams ranked 16, 19, 23, 24 all lost to lesser ranked or unranked foes this past weekend. Several others had scares How are those power polls working for them? I do not consult major polls when doing this. Their record of futility is clear. Let the teams earn their rankings on the field. I try to remove as much subjectivity as possible. The AP Poll and it's counterparts are silly. Ranking teams based on who you think is good is not going to work. We don't know how great teams truly are until they play the games on the field. I rank what happens on the field. This system is not perfect. I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams.

Themes:

Reward Grinders. I like to reward those who play difficult schedules. Those mid-majors do not have to prepare for difficult games on a weekly basis, and I take that into account. So, with that said...Goodbye Mid Majors. After finally getting a chance to watch these guys, I realized that they are not at the level of ranked teams from major conferences. Additionally, their schedule strengths were incredibly inflated because they had all played each other, who were also ranked highly. These teams are not talented. They are able to focus on their 1 game of the year against a big-6 conference team for several weeks. The BCS team views them as a schedule break. Letdown city. I am really against power-polling, but none of these teams deserve to play in a BCS game and I am no longer rewarding teams in any way for simply not losing to the likes of Eastern Illinois and Nevada.

Rank	Team

1	Texas Tech
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	Texas
5	Southern Cal
6	Oklahoma
7	Oklahoma State
8	Penn State
9	Georgia
10	Ohio State
11	Missouri
12	Michigan State
13	Utah
14	North Carolina
15	Pittsburgh
16	Miami (Florida)
17	Oregon State
18	Cincinnati
19	California
20	Oregon
21	Maryland
22	Iowa
23	Mississippi
24	South Carolina
25	Georgia Tech

So... what changes need to be made?

ANIMATED DRIVE CHART

Full Screen Version

Daily Notes

to come.

We’re not going to see consistent improvement from this team until there is a complete regime c...

FSUncensored — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 00:33:28 -0000

We’re not going to see consistent improvement from this team until there is a complete regime change. If Jimbo is the anchor of that new regime, then so be it. But be it quickly.

This ad hoc strategy that we’ve tried to piece together in order to give Bowden another chance has been an utter blunder. It has left the team grasping for inspiration and leadership. When a catastrophe does occur, as it did on Wednesday, our team is left paralyzed by indecision and confusion.

It wasn’t going to work. There are reasons that sayings like "There can only be one captain on the ship" persist and prove to be accurate.

Maybe next year it happens, I doubt it. We’re too bound to Bowden. There’s literally nothing that we can (Or Wetherall wants) to do.

Somewhere along the line the big money boosters stopped becoming fans of FSU football and started to become fans of Bowden. It has resulted in a form of idolatry that has killed the program.

We became Rome after the nepotism. And we’re burning like it, too.

CaStauch

3rd and Losing (Sunday's open thread)

FSUncensored — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:48:57 -0000

I'm pouring over the results from last night. I'll update this throughout the day.

Everyone wants to discuss the 3rd down performance. Let's go deeper. This game was won (or lost) on 3rd and LONG. Advanced football metrics define 3rd and long as 3rd and 5 or more.

To be clear, you shouldn't expect an offense to succeed in 3rd and 5+ situations. The average conversion rate is a around 30%. Defenses strive to put their opponent in 3rd and long situations. That is the concept of leverage that we talked about last week. Let's take a look at how the Noles did with their 3rd down and long opportunities:

BC faced 3rd and 5+ on 7 occasions. They converted 5.

3RD-LONG RUN  (2 RUN, 4 PASS)                
3-12 B41 #1   14 up middle  
3-10 F32 #41   8 over right guard (picked up the 4th-2 on the subsequent play)

3RD-LONG PASS
3-9  B20 #10 to #82    16 [    ] CR
3-12 F14 #10 to #18    14 [    ] FL
3-12 B45 #10 to #2     20 [    ] PO
3-11 F46 #10 to #82     - [    ] PO
3-G (from 6) Incomplete Defensive Pass Interference (Carter, Tony)

Pathetic. 71% (and one of the non-conversions was converted on the resulting 4th down!) Andrews was badly out-schemed. That's not a talent issue. That type of performance is a coaching issue. It is Andrews being too stubborn to adjust. Again, remember that Tony Carter said that Crane knew where he was going with the ball before the play.

How about Florida State on 3rd and long?

8 opportunities. 1 Conversion.

3RD-LONG PASS
3-5  B46 #7  to #86    14 [    ] CR
3-25 B46 #7  to #4    INT [    ] DP
3-9  F47 #7  to #86     - [    ] DP
3-13 B21 #7  to #86     - [    ] FL
3-7  F23 #7  to #6      2 [    ] SC
3-10 F40 #7  to #86     - [    ] SC
3-5  B33 #7  to #18     - [    ] SI
3-9  B32 #7  to #18     - [    ] SI

1-8 is a little bit worse than what you can expect to achieve on 3rd down (2-8 is more in line). That said, this team can't expect to do better than 1-8 on 3rd and long. As currently comprised, they aren't built to do that. As we've discussed before, this offensive line is not ready to protect for dropback passing. Ponder was late on several of these throws as well. Missing the wideouts hurt. The thing that disappointed me the most, though, was the play of the offensive tackles. We knew going in that we would struggle to pass block against Raji and Brace in the middle, but everyone figured that our tackles could handle the Boston College's ends. Datko and Sanders got bullrushed and BC was able to get pressure without blitzing.

...pass protections usually start out with the understanding that if the defense rushes five guys, you can pick them up, but your blockers will have to be able to block at least one defender (more likely 2) one-on-one. No pass protection scheme can count on double teaming all possible rushers. If you can’t handle anyone man-for-man, then a five man rush effectively becomes like a seven or eight man blitz, but also with sound coverage behind it._ Smartfootball.blogspot

BC's got the pressure of a 6 or 7 man blitz while rushing only 4. They played 7 in coverage all night and mixed their looks very well. FSU had 22 runs and 34 passes. BC ran 46 times and threw 28 times. I didn't love Jimbo's gameplan, but it was not horrible. He was handcuffed. Andrews had no excuses and must go after another underachieving effort from the men he leads. Jump on now or wait 2 weeks when UF comes in.

Also,

We received our first spam from West Africa. Exciting news. Tomahawk Nation is moving on up!

Good Day The Tomahawk Nation,

Please accept my apology if my mode of contacting you will in any way offend you. I am compelled to contact you via this medium for obvious reasons which you will understand when we discuss details of my proposition.

Through this letter I am seeking your urgent co-operation and an opportunity to invest and do business with you in your country or any other country you can manage in around the world as my partner. I have a sizable asset to invest, I would like to work with you in doing business

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Interesting.

Jimbo: Clean House. Seriously. (Post your post game reactions)

FSUncensored — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 04:49:24 -0000

Apparently, the NCAA eliminated the rule that required all offenses to line up in a balanced I-formation. Apparently, it's a good idea to show your blitz way before the snap. Apparently you should play outside technique on 3rd and 6 while bringing an all-out blitz into a 7 (or 8!) man protection. Apparently we can't expect our award winning defensive coordinator to craft an excellent defense out of 5 seniors and 6 juniors, 5 of which will unquestionably play in the NFL. Apparently it is too much to ask to of our defense to hold one of the worst offenses in an offensively challenged conference to even an average performance. At home. In your homecoming game. Apparently.

Don't think we are predictable and stale on defense? "He [Crane] kind of knew where he was going before each play." _Tony Carter

There should be little doubt that the suspensions impacted this team. Reenacting West Side Story in the student union is stupid, thuggish behavior and it needs to be left at home. It was a distraction to the fans all week. It was certainly a distraction to the players-- specifically the players who were in the melee but not suspended.

The suspensions, however, are not where this game was lost. FSU's offensive line played like an offensive line made up of 3 freshman and 2 sophomores is expected to play-- for the first time in a while. We're surprised because we've been spoiled with shockingly decent offensive line play for much of the year. They got dominated tonight (even Rodney Hudson). "This was the first time all year we got whipped up front."_ Bowden.

We needed Mickey to take his group of guys, a group loaded with talent, and have them play good football. Instead, they laid an egg. Dominated in the middle of the defensive line and unable to defend a simple zone read. Over, and over, and over again.

The 3 picks? They hurt as well. The pick-6 was a killer, but the other two? I don't expect to convert 3rd and 23 and the ball ended up at the 19. Jimbo didn't either: "It was 3rd and 25. We tried to hit something down the middle and if we didn't it was like a punt, ya know?"_Jimbo The other? "Well, that guy's gotta make a play. Christian needs to put the ball a little more outside, but heck we had a guy right in his face with an 8 man protection! Even if Greg catches that, it's coming back cause the holding call even with the 8 man protection. [Ed Note: That means blocking with 8 men, a huge number of blockers. You shouldn't have blocking issues when you block with 8 guys.]" _Jimbo. Greg Carr is disgustingly inconsistent. That is an automatic read and throw and Carr must realize that he must knock it down if he can't catch the ball. Ponder didn't play well, but he shouldn't have been asked to answer score after score in a game of these circumstances. I do think we were limited in what we could run.

This team is reeling. The administration must do whatever it can to keep Fisher. If that means firing Mickey Andrews, Jody Allen, and Chuck Amato, then it needs to be done. If that means getting rid of our head coach who looked pathetic on national television proclaiming "everyone has problems", then do it. This is a fractured leadership dynamic and it is killing Florida State. Jimbo should leave if he is not given the reigns for 2009-- nothing less. Seminole Nation must do whatever it takes to end this joke. When is enough, enough? Leadership starts at the top. Fans should not support a product that is less than whole. We might as well print tickets to the 2009 Bowden and Co. Clown Show if the administration and the boosters don't finally pull the plug. We can no longer afford to take a 0 at the head coaching spot. We cannot afford to start over. If Jimbo is our guy (and right now, we won't do better), show it. Axe Bobby. Axe Mickey. Axe Jodey. Axe Chuck. We're not getting back to the elite dragging Bobby and Mickey around. We cannot afford to start over.

Update: I just thought about how bad our defense will be next year when 7 starters leave and the same coaching group is here. At least we know that they'll only have 1 more year to embarass Seminole Nation. ;)

I'll post the best of the user's react tomorrow.

BC- FSU 2h GameThread

FSUncensored — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 02:44:15 -0000

Basketball won 59-57. BC is up 14-10 at the half.

Boston College! Florida State! You're looking live, Seminoles! Fade to Blackout! LiveBlog!

FSUncensored — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 23:56:52 -0000

Nigel is in BEAST MODE!!!!!!!!!! 3:55pm

The first one was great, as we watched NC State beat Wake.

5 Seniors, 6 Juniors, # 5 in the nation... DEFENSE... WE NEED YOU... BLACK OUT BC!

Be Here at 7:10 Eastern! Go get your drinks Now! Be Here!

Quick Rules:

1. No porn.

2. No racial slurs

3. No Homosexual slurs

4. No gratuitous cursing

Boston College! Florida State! You're looking live, Seminoles! Fade to Blackout! LiveBlog!

FSUncensored — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 17:00:06 -0000

Closed

Next Game

Boston College Eagles
@ Florida St. Seminoles

Saturday, Nov 15, 2008, 8:00 PM EST
Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium

Blackout Preview! Boston College Eagles and your Florida State Seminoles (Finished)

posted by FSUncensored about 5 hours ago

32 comments | 0 recs

Incident in the Union-- updated 11.14.08

posted by FSUncensored about 11 hours ago

322 comments | 0 recs

The Conversation: Boston College

posted by FSUncensored 1 day ago

60 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

Sorry for the rap, Fsued.

via grfx.cstv.com

...you never want to hurt anybody, but our kids understand that if a guy wants to take himself out of a ballgame that is his business. You have got to hit him, you have got to inflict some pressure on him with contact for that to happen.... -Mickey Andrews

Tyrod Taylor

Sean Glennon

Jamar Nesbitt

Chris Crane... you are next!

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

Leg 1 of the Tournament Run: Win all early cupcake games. Game Thread: FSU @ Jax Dolphins (Basketball)

FSUncensored — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 08:00:06 -0000

FSU can't have a slip-up against Jacksonville, la Salle, Stetson, Coastal Carolina, or Western Illinois

Add any updates or whatever you feel like.

Can someone post a recap here when finished?

Offense

Defense

Date

Opponent

Result

Sat Nov 15

Jacksonville (s) (sr)

W, 59-57

85.6

52.4

26.1

18.8

73.2

82.7

36.0

16.0

33.3

26.5

Blackout Preview! Boston College Eagles and your Florida State Seminoles (Finished)

FSUncensored — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 19:57:25 -0000

I WILL liveblog this for you guys, barring some sort of unforeseen stuff.

The suspension info is here

The Pick 3 contest is here.

Other Previews: Chantrant, Scalpem

I will withhold my thoughts on the final discipline until campus PD releases the report. I will say that these suspensions are the correct move, in light of the National TV coverage and the pending NCAA mess. I stand by my sources who believe Surrency and Reed are done at FSU.

Here's your coverage Map

The announcers are Brent Musgambler ("you're looking live"), Kirk Herbstriet, and Lisa Salters (on the sidelines.)

The weather?

8pm

Mostly Clear
53°F

49°F

10%

45°F

74%

From NW 11 mph

I'll take that. Preview inside (big. mega big)

We have second-guessed Bowden's stand on discipline before, but not any more. The 'Noles are in the thick of an ACC championship race and play a tough game Saturday against Boston College, but Bowden has suspended some key players who were involved in an on-campus brawl earlier this week. Many coaches would have fallen back on the old tried-and-true ploy of letting the legal process take its course, but Bobby suspended these guys even before anybody has been arrested. Bianchi.

When BC has the ball

My head is more clear in this area, so I will start with that first.

Boston college is big on the offensive line (4 guys over 310). I don't think they are anything special and are are definitely not as good as some of their lines in the past. They want to pound the rock. Their backs are not very big (5-8, 190). They have a good TE (yikes). Their wide receivers are not impressive. From what I've seen (3 games), Robinson is the best of the bunch. Their QB is strange. Chris Crane is a big kid (6-4, 240). He's not immobile, but he's not fast. Think Ben Rothlesberger's build with a 'lil less mobility. He has a rocket of an arm, but he is inaccurate. The guy just isn't very precise. He may throw better than an average deep ball.

BC Offense against ACC Opponents

		Total Off.			Rushing		Passing
Opponent	Pts	Plays	Yds	YPP	No	Net	Att	Comp	Yds	YPA	TD	Int
Georgia Tech(16-19)	16	77	262	3.4	41	120	36	18	142	3.9	1	2
@ North Carolina St.(38-31)	38	81	578	7.1	30	150	51	34	428	8.4	2	1
Virginia Tech(28-23)	28	69	300	4.3	37	82	32	16	218	6.8	1	3
@ North Carolina(24-45)	24	63	244	3.9	21	40	42	28	204	4.9	2	3
Clemson(21-27)	21	69	236	3.4	30	120	39	18	116	3.0	1	0
ACC TOTALS	127	359	1620		159	512	200	114	1108		7	9
ACC AVG/ Game	25	72	324	4.5	32	102	40	23	222	5.5	1.4	1.8
Minus NC State	22	70	261	3.7	32	91	37	20	170	4.6	1.3	2

3.7 yards per play against defenses that are somewhat comparable to the 'Noles. I don't need to tell you how bad that is. A QB rating of 84. He did light up NC State though. Outlier anyone?

So, what does BC's offense do? (not much, haha, I know) They operate almost exclusively out of the shotgun from what I've seen. They use their TE as a wing and sometimes go with heavy personnel (double TE, 2 backs). There are 2 important injuries to mention here. First, they are without their 250LB fullback, James McClusky. Second, Clarence Megwa, wide receiver, is out, also with a broken leg. Megwa was decent, not great. They like to run draws and RB read plays out of the gun. This offense really doesn't impress me.

Despite being unimpressive, a few things scare me. First, they like go to max protect a LOT. This is scary because we have been so blitz heavy. Mickey knows that we can cover their wideouts one on one, but how much will he blitz? Patrick Robinson can lock down their wideout Robinson. I worry though, they we bring the house, go man-free, never get there with the blitz, and get burned on a deep ball. If there was ever a game to use pass interference-- this is it.

Secondly, they have shown that they will run some option. Crane will keep it once in a while, but mostly he just pitches the ball to the RB. I'm not sure how much we've prepped for this in this specific game, but since we faced option over the last 4 games, and BC's is not that good, we should be okay with it.

The key players for the Noles will be the interior defensive linemen. They don't need to play out of their minds, but do need to have a decent showing. The other key group will be the corners. If we lock down BC's wideouts (and I suspect we can), they will be hurting.

I hope that FSU crowds the line of scrimmage, but decides to wait and see whether it can get pressure with the front 4 guys. If they need to blitz, fine, but let's let Everette and the boys try to do their thing first. Crane is tough to sack because of his size. Crane does not read defenses well and makes some really dumb decisions.

BC also rarely surrenders tackles for loss (2nd best in the Nation). We can't get frustrated and play undisciplined if they are gaining 1-2 yards consistently.

Did you know?

FSU's defense is giving up 100 less yards per game this year than they were at this point in 2007?

3rd Downs

The Noles lead the Nation in 3rd down conversion defense, as opponents have converted only 18% of 3rd downs (21 of 116). Let's check the breakdown: Wake 13.5% Miami 13.3%, GT 33.3%, NC ST 11%, VT 9%!!, Clemson 13%

BC has struggled mightily on 3rd downs, and they seem to be regressing! Feast your eyes: Wake 13.5% Miami 13.3%, GT 42%, NC ST 50%, BC 50%, UNC 38%, CLEMSON 17%, ND 21%

Think BC will hold the football for long stretched? Me neither.

Another BC Issue

Boston College cannot make field goals. Out of 120 NCAA teams, they are 114th in field goal kicker rating (a measure of how many points the team has earned out of how many were expected in a given kicking situation. For instance, they expect less than 50% of field goals over 50 yards, so the point value would be less than half of a field goal, say 1.33 expected points. EP's are valued at around a full point.).

As a result of this, BC has decided to go for 4th down more often, and also punt in that range 35yard to 25 yard range. Their kicking game is truly awful. They should convert some of those, but an offense that struggles in all other phases of the game can't expect to excel in 4th down.

So, what will happen?

They will go max protect often, and they will have the opportunity to go deep as we blitz into max protect. Crane, however, is inaccurate and our corners can definitely take care of their skill players. He'll hit 1 or 2 deeper balls. He'll find the TE a few times as well. He'll also fumble once and have a ball deflect off his receiver's hands which will be intercepted by the FSU defense. BC will get a few runs where their backs are stymied at the line, FSU's defenders cut inside due to impatience, and the back bounces it to the outside. BC doesn't have enough variety in their routes to keep the corners from locking in.

NOTE: they are a slightly above avg screen team, but just as we prepped for option several weeks in a row, the Clemson screen prep should be fresh in our minds.

If FSU can get the insane pressure from the defensive ends, BC won't score. BC's LT Castonzo will try to handle Everette 1-1 and will fail, so they will have a TE or back help out. Not having their huge fullback here will hurt them. The key here, will be the combination of Moffett and White, as they will face a massive (6-8 322lbs) but slow right tackle. They can beat him. Even if they beat him, however, Crane will step up in the pocket. The DT's must get SOME sort of pressure, and I expect us to use stunts and twists to do just that. I predict that Justin Mincey brings his A-game at the DT spot, now that he is finally healthy again.

In the end, I expect BC to rush 30 times for 85 yards (including sacks), and throw 35 times for 183 yards. They'll score 14 points, and eschew field goal opportunities.

When the 'Noles have the ball

Well, the suspensions are going to hurt. No way to dance around that. As is usually the case, nothing is as bad as it seems (the suspensions, BC's offense), and nothing is as good as it seems (our defense).

I was totally prepared to pick a 34-0 win this week. I am now changing my pick.

Let's take a look at BC's defense. I count 4 Seniors, 6 Juniors, and 1 sophomore in the starting 11. They have an amazing defensive tackle tandem which gives teams a lot of trouble. I went over how to block this in a well received piece earlier this week. Their defensive ends are not impressive to me. They are slightly bigger than normal, but are not that quick afoot (though Ramella is quicker than the other who is 285lbs). They lost their best defensive end for the year (Alex Albright), who was a total sack monster. Their LB's are decent, but here again, they lost their best linebacker-- All America Candidate Brian Toal. The secondary has a ton of interceptions and they are experienced. I think this is a veteran, experienced, smart and well coached defense. They are not stocked with talent, however, so don't go giving them insane amounts of credit.

Again, let's go to the chart of their games against ACC teams.

		Total Off.			Rushing		Passing
Opponent	Pts	Plays	Yds	YPPA	No	Net	Att	Comp	Yds	YPA	TD	Int	Sacks	TFL
Georgia Tech(16-19)	19	53	235	4.4	40	162	13	6	73	5.6	0	0	2	5
North Carolina St.(38-31)	31	55	253	4.6	22	35	33	19	218	6.6	1	0	5	6
Virginia Tech(28-23)	23	65	240	3.7	38	150	27	12	90	3.3	0	1	1	4
North Carolina(24-45)	45	66	352	5.3	36	114	30	19	238	7.9	3	0	3	4
Clemson(21-27)	27	64	339	5.3	31	87	33	21	252	7.6	1	3	2	7
ACC TOTALS	145	303	1419		167	548	136	77	871		5	4	13	26
ACC AVG/ Game	29	61	284	4.7	33	110	27	15	174	6.4	1	0.8	2.6	5.2

BC gives up more points per game in ACC play than any other team, and they are trending downward in their last 2 ACC games. They are a fraud, as we discussed earlier in the week. For all the talk of their amazing pass efficiency defense, they are allowing a QB rating of 115 in ACC play, and have allowed an average of 245 passing yards in the last 2 ACC games (again, a bad trend). They've given up more TD's than picks. Remember how bad that Clemson O-Line was and how immobile Harper was? They only had 7 TFL's in that game-- in Chapel Hill.

Further, they've performed poorly on the road... as Noth Carolina and NC STATE! lit them up for a combined 76 points!

I think these injuries have hurt this squad more than many believe.

Boston College plays a lot of soft Cover 2. Their LB's take deep drops and their corners often drift very far. They try to make you go down the field in small chunks. They do not allow the deep ball. They try to defend the run with 7 players.

In watching the BC game, I noticed that they picked Jimmy Claussen 4 times, and ALL OF THEM were on forced deep balls. We must avoid interceptions in this football game.

A quick rundown of who will replace the suspended guys:

EASTERLING- OWENS

SURRENCY- FORTSON

REED- GIVENS

It could be much worse (the other guys are total scrubs, playing wise).

In other years, this would cripple FSU; but not this year. Let's take a look:

		Total Off.			Rushing		Passing
Opponent	Pts	Plays	Yds	YPP	No	Net	Att	Comp	Yds	YPA	TD	Int
Wake Forest(3-12)	3	64	220	3.4	28	102	36	12	118	3.3	0	5
Miami (Fla.)(41-39)	41	84	469	5.6	53	310	31	14	159	5.1	1	2
North Carolina St.(26-17)	26	80	392	4.9	45	138	35	23	254	7.3	1	0
Virginia Tech(30-20)	30	57	248	4.4	38	89	19	11	159	8.4	1	0
Georgia Tech(28-31)	28	65	384	5.9	36	196	29	17	188	6.5	2	1
Clemson(41-27)	41	63	419	6.7	36	266	27	16	153	5.7	1	1
ACC TOTALS	169	413	2132		236	1101	177	93	1031		6	9
ACC AVG/ Game	28	69	355	5.2	39	184	30	16	172	5.8	1	1.5

The only team to shut down FSU's running game was Va Tech. In no way does BC's defense resemble Virginia tech's scheme. VT played aggressive press coverage and loaded the box.

FSU can run the football, and they've done it on everyone. Clemson, GT, and NC State are all zone heavy teams and FSU gashed them. This is a new FSU team this year. To my knowledge, no running backs, offensive linemen, or tight ends have been suspended.

What changes will we make?

FSU will be more conservative than usual in this game. Why? Interceptions. In a normal day, the Noles would drop 40+ on this squad. Because of BC's zone heavy look, errant throws are often picked (though much less often in ACC play and NEVER on the road). I worry that some of the replacement guys will not be in rhythm with Ponder. Still though, Ponder is very comfortable with Parker, Carr, and Owens.

We must avoid receivers running wrong routes and the resulting "errant" throw floating to a Safety.

I expect FSU to use a lot of Chollie (2 BACKS, 3 WR GUN), ChollitTe (2WR, TE, 2RB GUN). Luckily, we run a lot of these sets anyways. We will not come out in the 5 wide look. Scrap that. One common look that we often run is Hawaii (Gun with trips wr and one back, and a wr on the other side). In this look, we will go (from trips side, outside-- Carr, Owens, Parker, and Fortson on the other side, probably running a lot of deep routes to keep the threat alive).

What we will NOT see is inexperienced receivers running routes that require a lot of precision. If Givens or Fortson are running precise timing routes, I'll lost my mind.

This WILL hurt us some, as some zone busters (notably all-curls and the double out routes) can require precision. Expect Preston and Owens to run those.

Additionally, we will see a few throws to Caz Piurowski.

Maybe most importantly from the passing game perspective, we will throw the ball to our running backs. I want to see BC's linebackers consistently try to deal with these guys in space. Their deep drops should leave stuff open underneath.

WE WILL NOT SEE TIM ORANGE OR THE REST OF THE NO-NAME WIDEOUTS. That is silly stuff. We don't need them, we don't need to sub that much.

The one positive in this game is that their defensive ends are not exceptional speed rushers. They do not have the edge guys that GT, VT, or Clemson have. BC will get pressure up the middle with those DT's. To counteract this, FSU will roll the pocket. That's good, as we have a mobile offensive line and they are adept at establishing a new pocket. These BC dt's don't want to chase people. We want them in chase mode, not "drive McMahon into the center" mode.

BC does blitz to get pressure. They often drop those DT's back into coverage. We should NOT struggle with that. I love when teams drop huge players into coverage. They will also blitz without dropping the DT's, and then play zone behind the blitz. This leave obvious, large holes in the zone. Can FSU exploit this? I'm not sure. Preston and Owens can recognize and sit down. I'm not sure about Carr.

The running game will really be important here, and we are a running football team. FSU will look to run the stretch play and the draw play. I think BC will be able to slow it down somewhat, but this is an aggressive running team that used the run as a weapon, not as a maintenance tool. We will look to get the corner on these guys. Getting to the 2nd level will be key, and out linemen are quick enough to do this.

Cutback running could be HUGE here, as BC is definitely worried about FSU's speed, and they will quickly look to cut off the corner. Backside cut blocking will be paramount as we look to gash them on the comeback.

What will happen?

FSU will look to go up-tempo at times to tire out the big guys up front. They will throw 27 times for 190 yards. Jimbo will find a way to get his playmakers the ball with some space to work with and ask them to do the rest. He will be very conservative as he knows our defense is fully capable of shutting down the Eagles. He will NOT ask our replacements to run routes they are not comfortable with. He will throw passes in the flats to Antone and Jermaine Thomas, which should help keep their corners from slagging back like Wake's did. We will continue to throw the bubble screen to Parker and Maybe to givens, as BC will not play their defensive backs in the faces of our slot guys. We will throw the middle screen to both Parker and Fortson. Crossing routes underneath the deep drops of the linebackers will also be available (these can be run by any receiver). We will ask Preston Parker, Greg Carr, and Rod Owens to play a huge number of minutes. Ponder MUST be patient. The Noles will run the ball 38 times for 185 yards (including sacks). They might not dominate in the running game early, but Jimbo has shown a determination to stick with the running game. The Noles will go for 27 points, which is slightly under BC's ACC season average. Graham Gano is the best kicker in America, by far, and he should make at least 1 long field goal after a stalled drive. The Noles will commit no more than 2 turnovers and will force BC to go on long drives, which they will not consistently accomplish.

Noles 27, BC 14.

GO NOLES! BLACK OUT BC!

Poll

Who will step up in the absence of the 3 missing wideouts?

Incident in the Union-- updated 11.14.08

FSUncensored — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 19:06:55 -0000

"The police report has not been concluded but from the information that I have gathered, I am suspending five players who were apparently involved in the fray. Taiwan Easterling, Bert Reed, Corey Surrency, Cameron Wade and Richard Goodman will all be suspended for the Boston College game."_ Bobby Bowden

Impact: Senior Rod Owens will take Easterling's spot. That's fine. Louis Givens will replace Reed. That's a downgrade, though he is a serious burner. Fortson will replace Surrency, and that's a downgrade. The other 2 guys are roster fodder.

I'm hearing the 2 guys we all think are done... are done. Bummer. (Please Note: this has not been announced)

Andrew Carter has the press release from FSU PD (investigation continues)

Thursday Update: I'm heading out for a bit, but I wanted to share my thoughts first. I am now more unsure about this situation then ever. I can't say how, but I've confirmed that the two users claiming to be sisters in the comment section (including the alleged victim) are at the very least, FSU students. I want everyone to treat all other posters with respect, especially if something big comes down later this afternoon. I also want to clarify the facts that we know, and then set out the remaining questions.

We Know with a reasonable degree of certainty:

That reports claim Easterling was involved at the beginning. Whether he was the instigator or the initial victim is up in the air.
There were 4 injured people who received some sort of medical treatment.
A chair was thrown, and someone did end up in Tallahassee Memorial Hospital as a result. The consensus here seems to be a severely broken nose. Some sites are claiming that it required surgery, but that is unconfirmed and I am labeling that as rumor at this point.
The fight did involve more than 10 total people.
No arrests have been made as of 2:20 Eastern Time.

I'm hearing (this is the rumor section) I'm not endorsing these, but rather trying to keep track.

That 2 guys are gone. A third strike for one, and the other for the chair throwing. We will see.
This was almost certainly not a random incident, and it seems to be related to someone disrespecting another person sometime earlier in the week; possibly at a club.
That the injured people may have been more participants than innocent bystanders.
From a lot of members associated with the Fraternity in question. I am concerned that they are all repeating the exact same story, and I am curious if they were told to by leadership to echo those same lines. While the football team isn't talking, friends of Phi Beta Sigma certainly are, and they are saying that the 'Nole players started this and went to the Union with a purpose. Keep that in mind when reading reports. I am not saying that their accounts are incorrect or fabricated, but since they are the only voice trolling message boards with an actual first hand interest in the outcome, we need to view their accounts with a cautious eye. It is not as if the football players are out there openly giving their side of the story (which would be wildly different).

Finally, if you see a comment that is way out of line for this board, e-mail me at FSUncensored@gmail.com I allow pretty much everything on here, but some will take this opportunity to troll their advertisements, post pornographic links, or generally conduct themselves in a manner that could make this site NSFW.

There was a good sized fight in the Student Union today, allegedly between some members of the Phi Sigma Beta Fraternity and some Seminole football players.

There are various conflicting accounts at this point. I'm not sure which to believe. Neither story is good as people were hurt. Dumb decisions were undoubtedly made by parties on both sides. As Florida State Fans, let's all hope that the players didn't bring this upon themselves. As Seminoles, let's all hope that Florida State gets to the bottom of this.

Chantrant has more.

Jamey Givens at NoleInsider has the after practice info, here's a bit:

"The incident today, I really have no comment on it,'' FSU coach Bobby Bowden said following Wednesday night's practice. "The police will look into it and let us know what they think. That's all I've got to say about that.''

7:45 UPDATE: All players are at practice and no arrests have been made. Players practiced with their normal position groups. Players and Coaches were not available.

Wikipedia on Phi Beta Sigma (ΦΒΣ):

a predominantly African-American fraternity which was founded at Howard University in Washington, D.C. on January 9, 1914.

UPDATE: Since people have asked, this is NOT Myron Rolle's fraternity (He's in Kappa Alpha Psi).

I should note that Wednesday is "Market Wednesday" in the Union. Market Wednesday basically consists of local merchants peddling their goods. Some student organizations demonstrate, and some African American fraternities do their step routines as well. The place is pretty rowdy. In any case, these people who are saying that players can't go to the Union need to quit. They are students like anyone else and this is an on campus area of commerce; not some shady back alley. Scalpem points out that players must remain ever vigilant of their surroundings and appearances; regardless of whether they have the right to be somewhere.

Meanwhile, ChantRant asks you to put yourself in the player's shoes. Intriguing read, but it is all dependant on the facts, or lack thereof.

Tomahawk Nation

Been thinking ....

Go Deep: Inside FSU's win over Jacksonville (Basketball)

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We’re not going to see consistent improvement from this team until there is a complete regime c...

3rd and Losing (Sunday's open thread)

BC faced 3rd and 5+ on 7 occasions. They converted 5.

How about Florida State on 3rd and long?

8 opportunities. 1 Conversion.

Jimbo: Clean House. Seriously. (Post your post game reactions)

BC- FSU 2h GameThread

Boston College! Florida State! You're looking live, Seminoles! Fade to Blackout! LiveBlog!

Nigel is in BEAST MODE!!!!!!!!!! 3:55pm

The first one was great, as we watched NC State beat Wake.

5 Seniors, 6 Juniors, # 5 in the nation... DEFENSE... WE NEED YOU... BLACK OUT BC!

Be Here at 7:10 Eastern! Go get your drinks Now! Be Here!

Boston College! Florida State! You're looking live, Seminoles! Fade to Blackout! LiveBlog!

Next Game

Blackout Preview! Boston College Eagles and your Florida State Seminoles (Finished)

Incident in the Union-- updated 11.14.08

The Conversation: Boston College

...you never want to hurt anybody, but our kids understand that if a guy wants to take himself out of a ballgame that is his business. You have got to hit him, you have got to inflict some pressure on him with contact for that to happen.... -Mickey Andrews

Sean Glennon

Jamar Nesbitt

Chris Crane... you are next!

Leg 1 of the Tournament Run: Win all early cupcake games. Game Thread: FSU @ Jax Dolphins (Basketball)

Blackout Preview! Boston College Eagles and your Florida State Seminoles (Finished)

When BC has the ball

Did you know?

3rd Downs

Another BC Issue

So, what will happen?

When the 'Noles have the ball

What will happen?

GO NOLES! BLACK OUT BC!

Who will step up in the absence of the 3 missing wideouts?

Incident in the Union-- updated 11.14.08

Impact: Senior Rod Owens will take Easterling's spot. That's fine. Louis Givens will replace Reed. That's a downgrade, though he is a serious burner. Fortson will replace Surrency, and that's a downgrade. The other 2 guys are roster fodder.

I'm hearing the 2 guys we all think are done... are done. Bummer. (Please Note: this has not been announced)

7:45 UPDATE: All players are at practice and no arrests have been made. Players practiced with their normal position groups. Players and Coaches were not available.

Week 12 CBS Sports Blogpoll Draft