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MBB Game 5: FSU 67 vs Western Illinois 55

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Tonight the Seminoles take on Western Illinois in the second round of the UNLV Global Sports Challenge tournament. This will be the last home game before the Noles head to Las Vegas for two games and then to my neck of the woods to take on Northwestern.

Here is the Preview and my thoughts on tonight's game.

Believe it or not, there was a basketball game Saturday evening as well and the Noles managed to pull out the win after a terrible first half. The Noles beat Coastal Carolina to move to 4-0 on the season. Coastal Carolina couldn't miss in the first half, at one point shooting nearly 70% from the 3-point line and 60% from the floor. Despite being a much smaller team, they also beat us on the boards.

Going into the game tonight, let's see how the Noles are doing with the Four Elements of the game. Please see my previous game post for an explanation.

Our defense and our free throw shooting are keeping us in games this year, making up for poor shooting, lack of offensive rebounding and sloppy play with the basketball.

Currently, our eFG% is 50%, 127th in the nation, and our defense is only allowing an eFG% of 45%. We are turning the ball over 24% of our possessions. Imagine watching a basketball team that turns it over 1 out of every 4 trips down the floor; no wonder these early game have been closer than expected. We -2 on the turnover margin for the year and average 0.7 assists/turnover. However, our assist to shot made ratio is 0.59, I would like to see this number creep up little and may be a little inflated due to our poor shooting percentage. If you look at assist per shot attempt, we drop to 0.24.

Additionally, we're only grabbing offensive rebounds at a low rate: 31%, which places us 217th in the nation. We do continue to get to the free throw line at an alarming rate and are finally shooting like Leonard Hamilton teams of the past, making almost 75% from the charity stripe. Here are the stats from the Pomeroy Ratings:

 Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 100.6 (149)  93.3 ( 97)
Adj Efficiency :  92.4 (233)  97.3 (169)

Effective FG% : 50.0 (127) 45.0 ( 95)
Turnover Pct. :  24.0 (245)  21.5 (168)
Off. Rebound% :  31.1 (217)  33.8 (177)
Free Throw Rate:  44.7 ( 8)  26.6 ( 45)

3-Point FG% : 36.5 (104) 32.0 (133)
2-Point FG% :  47.8 (168)  42.8 ( 79)
Free Throw Pct.:  74.6 ( 62)  63.6 ( 92)
Block Pct. :  4.5 ( 49)  20.0 ( 8)
Steal Pct. :  8.8 (122)  14.8 ( 29)

3PA/FGA : 32.0 (186) 41.5 (314)
A/FGM :  56.3 (140)  50.5 (119)

Looking at that stats, demonstrates that our defense is playing extremely well. This is likely in part who we are playing, but it keeps in the tradition of Hamilton teams...aggressive defenses forcing turnovers. Look at that block percentage! Again, for the most part we have been much taller up front that our opponents, but a block shot does more than height. Alabi leads the way this year with 7 blocks. Also note our steal percentage. Toney Douglas continues his crafty ways averaging 3 steals per game.

Tonight, the Seminoles take on the Leathernecks from Western Illinois, who are 1-3 out of the Summit League, losing to Kennessaw State, Northen Illinois and Cincinnati (in their 1st round game of the Global Sports Challenge). Their only was against Eureka (yes there is a university called Eureka). This will be the first ever meeting between the two teams and they are likely the weakest team we have played thus far.

Here are their numbers:
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency :  80.9 (318) 111.0 (287)
Adj Efficiency :  76.0 (323) 113.6 (291)

Effective FG% : 39.9 (316) 58.1 (325)
Turnover Pct. :  24.3 (251)  24.3 ( 85)
Off. Rebound% :  33.0 (174)  41.3 (314)
Free Throw Rate:  14.5 (319)  35.4 (146)

3-Point FG% : 32.6 (191) 46.9 (330)
2-Point FG% :  36.9 (321)  52.7 (268)
Free Throw Pct.:  61.0 (271)  64.9 (114)
Block Pct. :  19.2 (329)  4.5 (294)
Steal Pct. :  9.4 (154)  9.4 (183)

3PA/FGA : 24.9 (305) 30.4 (119)
A/FGM :  58.1 (109)  64.6 (298)

They don't shoot the ball well, they don't get to the line and they turn the ball over more than we do. However, watch out for their defense as they cause their opponents to turn the ball over 24% of the time...sound familiar?

Tonight we will likely start:

F #31 Chris Singleton
F #42 Ryan Reid
C #32 Solomon Alabi
G #2 Jordan DeMercy
G #23 Toney Douglas

Look for the Leathernecks to start:

F #33 Julian Jones (6'8 215 So)
G #3 Tommie Tyler (6'3" 190 Fr)
G #5 David Nurse (6'2" 175 Jr)
G #11 Josh Rivers (6'0" 170 Sr)
G #45 David Dubois (6'5" 215 Sr)

Again we match up well size wise. Lets look for the Noles to continue to work on developing offensive rebounding, holding on to the ball and continuing to press with the defense. If we can hang onto the ball, I look for us to control this one from the start. However, if we shot like we did last time, watch out it could be a nail biter for a while.

Enjoy. Go Noles! I think you can watch the game here. Check out the Noles official site for the link if its not working.