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MBB Game 12: FSU 71 Charleston Southern 48

Tonight the Noles take on the Buccaneers of Charleston Southern in their final "warm-up" before their showdown with Pitt. See my post from Wednesday for how I think things have gone so far this year.

Step inside to take a look at how we match up withe the Bucs...

The Noles stepped it up and took control. Alabi had an amazing game and the Noles showed off their talent tonight. To quote Denis Green: "They are who we thought they are." FSU showcased their talent before their showdown with Pitt on Sunday. Look inside for the game preview and game thread. Thanks to everyone who contributed. The Noles took a step in the right direction tonight. Alabi had a huge game. Kitchen was very productive and Singleton is living up to expectations. 11-1...outstanding. And only 13 documented turnovers. This is how we should have played all year against weaker competition.

Tonight we take on the Bucs from Charleston Southern, a 5-4 team out of the Big South Conference, the same conference as Coastal Carolina. The Big South is rated as the 28th of 32 conferences in the country by our friends at Pomeroy. They are currently ranked 226th in the country overall. FSU is 77th. They have the 226th ranked offense and the 323rd ranked defense. We are 165th and 41st respectively. This is a game, no offense to the Bucs fans out there, that we should win. We have a 98% chance of winning it and it should be one that we work on limiting our turnovers.

Lets take a look a their numbers:

 Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 101.1 (156) 106.4 (271)
Adj Efficiency : 96.5 (226) 112.7 (323)

Effective FG% : 46.5 (244) 52.5 (283)
Turnover Pct. : 16.4 ( 8) 16.2 (332)
Off. Rebound% : 30.3 (257) 26.1 ( 16)
Free Throw Rate: 23.2 (202) 27.0 ( 33)

3-Point FG% : 33.8 (161) 32.2 (123)
2-Point FG% : 44.2 (263) 55.0 (327)
Free Throw Pct.: 74.6 ( 33) 69.4 (215)
Block Pct. : 12.3 (305) 9.2 (147)
Steal Pct. : 6.3 ( 2) 8.6 (252)

3PA/FGA : 35.8 (104) 37.3 (291)
A/FGM : 49.4 (268) 51.6 (115)

Apparently they love the three ball and they shoot well from their and they don't turn the ball over that much. Even when they played the likes of Iowa and Cincinnati, they have held on to the ball.

Here is how they have played against their competition:

Offense Defense
Date Opponent Result Site Pace Eff. eFG% TO% OR% FTR Eff. eFG% TO% OR% FTR
Fri Nov 14 Iowa (s) (sr) L, 68-48 A 55 86.7 39.2 16.3 29.2 27.4 122.8 60.6 12.6 25.0 31.9
Mon Nov 17 Furman (s) (sr) W, 75-64 H 69 108.4 58.2 14.4 17.5 29.1 92.5 48.4 15.9 13.3 14.8
Thu Nov 20 College of Charleston (s) (sr) L, 93-83 N 74 112.8 48.5 14.9 37.5 31.9 126.3 58.9 10.9 29.2 46.8
Sat Nov 22 Toccoa Falls (s) (sr) W, 107-78 H 89 120.8 57.7 22.6 48.9 35.9 88.0 47.1 23.7 30.4 36.2
Tue Nov 25 The Citadel (s) (sr) L, 84-80 H 72 111.3 50.0 18.1 27.3 47.4 116.9 59.4 13.9 17.9 47.2
Fri Nov 28 North Florida (s) (sr) W, 68-60 H 60 101.3 45.6 22.3 40.0 36.8 89.3 46.7 16.4 17.8 10.0
Mon Dec 1 High Point (s) (sr) W, 62-52 A 60 103.0 44.7 15.0 35.4 22.8 86.4 40.7 19.9 31.3 25.9
Sat Dec 13 Covenant (s) (sr) W, 101-49 H 71 141.6 61.8 15.4 50.7 22.2 68.7 36.7 29.4 22.5 32.6
Mon Dec 15 Cincinnati (s) (sr) L, 74-55 A 66 83.1 39.0 13.6 22.2 22.0 111.8 54.0 24.2 47.8 15.9

Just like GSU, they are all over the place and have great games and terrible games. Fortunately for us, their defense is by far their weak point. They don't force turnovers and they don't steal the ball. The only high point is that they don't allow their competition to get to the line, one of our strengths.

Here is their likely starting line-up:

Kelvin Martin 6'5 197 F Fr 10.6 pts 8.6 Reb Highly Touted Freshman

Omar Carter 6'5 220 F So 16.3 pts 8.1 Reb

Billy Blackmon 6'10 198 C Jr 4.7 pts 4.9 Reb

Jamarco Warren 5'11 160 G So 21.6 pts 2.4 Reb 2.2 Ast 1.8 TO

Tovi Bailey 6'1 175 F So 6.8 pts 2.5 reb 3.5 Ast 1.8 TO

Jamarco Warren loves to shoot the three ball. And he shoots well, his eFG% is 30th in the country and he has hit almost 50% of his three point shots and is considered one of the top offensive players in the country based on the Pomeroy ratings. He rarely turns the ball over and it will be interesting to watch when he plays against Douglas, who I think will likely shut him down.

The Bucs are as experienced as we are and are significantly smaller. They also play a slower tempo game, which should play into our hands.

The Noles and the Bucs have both played the Cincinnati Bearcats. Let's see how they matched up against a similar opponent:

Offense Defense
Date Opponent Result Site Pace Eff. eFG% TO% OR% FTR Eff. eFG% TO% OR% FTR
Mon Dec 15 Cincinnati (s) (sr) L, 74-55
A
66 83.1 39.0 13.6 22.2 22.0 111.8 54.0 24.2 47.8 15.9

Noles:

Fri Nov 28 Cincinnati (s) (sr) W, 58-47 N 64 90.7 42.0 28.1 43.2 50.0 73.5 36.1 29.7 40.5 31.5

Again...apologies for the formatting.

To summarize, we shot better, had more trunovers, rebounded better and held them to a slower pace and forced way more turnovers. We held Cincinnati to only 47 points and they allowed them to put up 74. Charleston was held to one of their lowest point totals of the year.

We need this game. We have a tough ACC schedule and if we want any hopes of making it to the big dance, we need to win this big. However, I feel the turnovers will continue to show up and it will be closer than it should be, as all of the games have been this year. It seems, that Hamilton finaly lost it and went after his team after the Tennessee Tech win on Tuesday night.

Look for Kitchen to get more minutes. He has been a big positive in the last two games and his minutes have increased. Hopefully, he can give Douglas a bit of a break at times. This will be a slow paced game unless Hamilton has a surprise up his sleeve.

Look for the Bucs to come out shooting threes to stay in the game and to keep it close early. But as they try to live or die by the three ball they will fade. Our size should dominate on the defensive end and their defense is bad enough that we should get into a rhythm. Look for Singleton to have a big night. His numbers and confidence have been improving and I feel he is finally starting to recognize and understand his role on the team. He will likely be matched up with Kelvin "K-Mart" Martin who is their top Freshman.

It will be interesting to see how Reid and Singleton battle down low for rebounds as their front court does a good job of rebounding. Look for Alabi to get more touches as he did in the last game. He still only had a couple of shot attempts and I want him to take more. He's too nice on the court. He doesn't want to be the one to screw up as he is coming off an injury and just starting to get his legs under him. He needs to be a force.

Any thoughts on the game? Will it be a close one or will we walk away with it? Will the offense finally be more than a motion offense at the top of the arc? Will we get out and run or continue to grind it out?

Go NOLES!